sunil94062

Betting on Goldman's Future

You are correct - Buffett seems to have been not so smart, with several of his recent bets - GE for example? Phew - what a disaster?

Shows that he is after all not a genius and surely not as precient as we "pedastal" mount him to be. He looks about as 'small' as any hedge fund dudes or private equity dudes - all mostly mediocre investment pro's.

Goldman, Morgan Stanley, DB and other high-fluted Investment Banks all were giant "Casino's" trolling large unregulated waters, with OPM and probably front-runners of most in-the-money trades and that is how they used their proprietary knowledge to make money. This charade had to end one day and it has.

Now that we know the "color" of this scheme, it is but obvious that the emperor wears no clothes!

Now: How to make money in a regulated world? That is what Blankfein now sees, as does Mack and as does Al Waleed. This gig is over.

True value of this GS franchise, is far less than this $62/share.

I am surprised to read that you do not know what it is worth? It is plain to value it - using a simple DCF model, stretched to 7 or 10 years and using a reasonable discount rate of say 15%, and to my view, GS should hard pressed to be worth about half of what it is trading at. I assume its ability, at best as a Commercial Bank is to make about 200 bps on the total capital it has. Its total capital base is published.

No?