The_Value_Investor

When Did the Recession Begin?

I like that we are seeing more and more people state the popular definition of a recession is the wrong definition. I feel the recession began last December. Holiday sales were weak, housing (20% give or take of GDP) was free-falling and confidence was low. Almost every bank had admitted there would be losses and the economic conditions would weaken. I don't think that those Q1 & 2 numbers matter as much b/c there is an economic stimulus built into that. I think the reason that everything has gotten so bad is not the bets people made (which were stupid) but people's lack of ability to see the tidal wave coming until it was 100ft high. David Rosenberg was one of the first people to talk about a slowdown that would start with housing and spread to credit markets as peoples home began to accumulate negative equity. I don't have it in front of me but I believe that was Q2ish if 2007.