The_Value_Investor

This Recession Should End in June

I think everyone is missing a key point here. Because of self-fulfilling prophecies the Fed, Govt, NBER et al. are not able to state "We might be in a recession" if they are not 100% sure! This would completely spook the public and with a 100% chance lead to a prolonged recession. The bottom line is that all of the aforementioned groups are a great place to gather information, do your own analysis and postulate your own opinions. Personally, my guess is that the recession started in December of 2007, housing will bottom and experience a U rebound sometime in late 2009. If we are lucky we will see growth in 2H 2009.