Ranchr

Coal - and KOL - Is Red Hot

And, we've been trying to get China to do as told for how long?

Bank of America Shares Now Worth Less

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ What? ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Tell us something that requires a rocket scientist not 10 key calculator. Oh, BTW, the stock was $37 last fall given the dilution we are about 1/3 of where the stock was just 8 months ago. Those of us that bought sub $6 as still happy campers and with reasonably tight stops, I'm long.

Nothing Suggests We're Anywhere Near the Bottom

Lies, damn lies, statistics!

For this discussion, unlike accounting and engineering, the goal of which is to seek precise numbers and measurements, statistics is about interpreting historic data to determine the direction and velocity of movement, and if the direction and velocity is steady, accelerating, or decelerating and how quickly it is changing to hopefully be able to make a thoughtful projection of future movements.

In other words, it's a art form.

I lived in California, when it was the sixth largest free-standing economy in the world. They always pull that one out to prove something. Better call Arnold and give him the bad news.

Faced with shortfalls in property taxes, states like Florida and it's local governments are raising sales taxes is someone going to claim that a 1 cent increase in the 5 cent sales tax, when it tacks effect June 1st, will mean people are buying more or simply being taxed more.

Steer Clear of Banks Who Need New Capital

Sounds like the author still needs to buy some shares to give back to the people they borrowed the shares from.

Look at where stocks were at their 52 week high and are still significantly below 50% of that price. If you think they have a good chance to get halfway back, buy them.

Sirius XM: Technical Analysis Shows Room to Maneuver

The short position now is the equivalent of a long trying to catch a falling knife in late September 08. I know, I did and am waiting to get whole on this one. I own a lot of AAPL but I tend to listen to the same few playlists, on my iPod. With SIRI, I get to move through a variety of music, some I haven't heard before. At 67, I'm fond of saying I used to be a Boomer, until they changed the membership requirements. BUT, there are a whole lot of people right behind me that are wanting the same things I want. It's like Florida real estate... is it getting warmer, in January, in New York or Chicago? IsFlorida getting colder? Are the Boomers getting younger?

DON'T FIGHT THE WAVE SURF IT!!!

Banking Won't Be Fun for a While

Once the banks repay TARP and the world adjusts for the sins of the past, the back will start paying dividends again and the share values will move back toward historic levels. Which, in the case of BAC, since 1996 hasn't been below $20, until a short blip in July 2008 and then since November 2008. Bet on death and destruction if you like, but I bought at $7.28 and am planning on $20ish by the end of 09.

Why It's Better to Bail Out Borrowers than Banks

Mathgeek/Wcinvest you are both right on the money!

We're Not Buying This Rally

The sky is falling, the sky is falling Run!Run! Run!

BoA's Ken Lewis Still Doesn't Get It

Give it a break Felix the day of the short on this stock was last month.

Cramer's Stop Trading! This Is One of the Greatest Rallies in History (3/27/09)

I ran the Northern California of a geographically diversified home building company from the mid-80's through the mid-90's and these guys are predominately merchant builders (buy finished lots, build and sell homes). Watch and see who is buying lots, that is the leading indicator and where you invest.

The Great U.S. Ponzi Scheme: Sell U.S. Treasury Bonds

Well last summer when I went to London it was roughly $2 to the £1 and it's been over $1.80 for a couple years. It's now at $1.39 we haven't fallen of your currency exchange cliff yet...

Could the Housing Market Be at a Bottom?

Russ, I appreciate your points but what you have laid out is a blueprint that guarantees you will pay more for the home, more for interest over whatever period of time you take your loan out for. There is a price for the insurance you are looking for and that premium is very high.

Take Sarasota, FL for example, I called the excesses when they were apparent to me three years ago but my associates knew I had been warning friends for more than a year before.

We were the highest flying market in part because our demand is not just local or international, it's because as I first said in 1984, while living in Park City, UT "no one wants to be old and cold, if they don't have to." Well almost no one...What the hell was Dr. Atkins doing walking on ice, he'd probably living the life of Riley, today, if he'd been in Sarasota that day.

Sarasota was first in and will likely be first out. The median price YOY has dropped 36.5%. The average price per square foot has dropped 27%. These are both lagging indicators lagging exactly one year in fact, and they are well below the cost of reproduction. Sales, on the other hand, is the leading indicator YOY and that is up 145.2% and has actually been trending up for more than six months now.

Median sales prices peaked in early 2007 and have been trending down steadily since. Number of sales hit bottom in early 2008 and have been trending up ever since.

As you so correctly stated in your first point, Russ, all real estate is local and I built thousands of homes in the Bay Area as division president of a public homebuilding company, when being an officer of a public company was an honorable position. I still don't know how any Californian buys a home and since Governor Moonbeam introduced the Moonbeam Doctrine, "if you don't build a road there no one will go," your California highways have become the worst in the country. In fact, there are Caribbean Islands that begin with a "C" with better maintained roads...Curacao and Cayman's comes to mind.

Your statistics prof probably told you the same thing mine did... there are lies, Damn Lies and STATISTICS, we can all use them to make our point correct analysis is most important and unlike accounting and engineering it's not precise and requires judgment and interpretation.

I happen to agree with the author's analysis but only time will tell if as Confucius said person who predicts the future by looking in crystal ball occasionally eats broken glass.

Could the Housing Market Be at a Bottom?

Inventory comes from four sources:
1. Bank foreclosure, short sales or sellers under financial pressure that are priced to move quickly with shorts being the slowest of the two because of the process.
2. Seller's who want to move for whatever reason but that are not under financial pressure to move but because they are motivate price their home to compete with the foreclosures and short-sellers.
3. Seller's who are stuck in 2005. Their house is on the market waiting for the elusive "greater fool" to show up and over pay. That buyer is not out there and that inventory will not move and has the effect of indicating a higher level of inventory than is actual. These sellers would be better off withdrawing from the market and waiting for a better market, rather than watch the paint fade on the sign in their front yard.
4. New home builders. In this area, only those that have created a rock-bottom box are building and only home that are contract builds are being built. There is no builder in his or her right mind building spec homes, in distressed markets and much of what is seen as building permits are for remodel and additions.

We will burn through the inventory that is actually for sale buy sellers with a modicum of motivation; speculative homebuilding is a long way from happening, in over-supplied markets; and, homes for sale by sellers waiting for a buyer with more money than sense are driving down prices by giving neighborhoods the impression of being in severe trouble.

Again, "the end of the end is near."

Could the Housing Market Be at a Bottom?

As a former California homebuilder in the late 80's/early 90's and a real estate broker for more than 30 years I congratulate the author on hitting the nail right on the head. Three-years-ago, I penned an article for a local magazine here in Sarasota, FL that I began by saying "When I see my brethren realtors buying homes and condos off-plan they have no intention of closing on much less living in, I see a little old man with a grey beard and a sign that says THE END IS NEAR!"

Recently, the media has failed to notice that even though sales of existing homes, nationwide, in January fell 5.2% year over year and the median price of housing dropped 33%, sales of existing homes in Florida were up 24%. Prices perceived as being at rock bottom spur buyers to buy.

My prediction "the end of the end is near!"

Financial Times Debunks Citi's Memo

It's not just a CITI memo. I stayed up, last night, and saw Charlie Rose interview Tim Geithner, heard Barney Frank's comments about Up-Tick and M2M. What you are seeing is a financial "full-court-press."