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The Recurring Gold 'Bubble'

Part of the problem in talking about "Bubbles" and "parabolic curves" has to do with the style of chart you use. A logarithmic scale gives a percentage change, and shows true volatility over the whole range of prices. An arithmetic scale shows the highest volatility at the high end of the chart, 10% of 1 is .1, of 10 is 1, of 100 is 10 of 1000 is 100. On a standard chart a ten percent move at 1000 will look parabolic, where it really is no different than a ten percent rise at 100, or 10, or 1! If you are a worrier, the logarithmic scale will sooth the bumps, if you watch pennies at $1220.USD gold, use the arithmetic chart, that will make you a worrier!

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Jim Rogers Shares His Thoughts on the Market

Jim Rogers is no different than any other investor, in that he talks about what he's done, a little about what he's doing, and none about what he's thinking about doing for the future. As Wayne Gretzky said,"I go to where the puck is going, not where it is." We get to see where the puck is, what the current play is, but not where the puck is going. The trick, is to always be looking for where the greatest problems or dislocations are within the economic structure, and look for the best solutions. That has always been the means to the greatest gains. The solutions, to be usable and profitable, have to be in the current market cycle of technology.

The cell phone was developed 60 years ago, but it took multiple cycles for the technology and infrastructure to get in line with each other. A bet on cell phones in the too early cycles was a loser. So to in the area of alternative energy, I think we are one cycle away from the infrastructure catching up to the technology. Solar cells and wind energy have been around for a long time, technologies lead the application and infrastructure, from the smart grid, the localized generation and local use solution, and cost efficiency. Geothermal, however, appears to be this market cycles winner for alternative energy, and it's costs are about the same as gas, oil, and nuclear, but 2.5 times higher than coal. I am a believer in clean energy. Not for global warming, because I have yet to see the direct and absolute connection of mans pollution being on a large enough scale to overcome the global and solar influences and cycles. For me it is a health, welfare, security, and safety issue. The Planet will do what the Planet will do, Mankind is only one small part of this.

The puck is going to food, water, housing, infrastructure, cleaner environment, medical care, and population stabilization. That's for the 4 Billion people in developing countries, and in the developed countries they do not want to lose any of the above, and they want comfort, enjoyment, convenience, longevity, and pleasure in all it's forms.

Game on!

Current Recession Is Tracking the 1930s Bear Market

Couple of points, all recessions are the unwinding of an over heated
sector, call it a bubble, it is still the overheated sector. No one knows where the recovery will take place within the economy. Who predicted the "CHIP"?, the CELLPHONE,? PHARMACUETICALS? All led us out of recessions! The prediction this time is alternative energy, but it is like the cell phone, it will have to wait for the smart grid to manage it, and then the distribution system to bring it to customers. So that's not it! We're builders, so look to that, maybe?
Just "not" houses this time.

As for it being different because of the bad financial instruments, in the period leading up to the 1929 drop, there was this little thing called margin, at 10%! So leverage was the problem both times in the collapses! If the supply chain coming in to the retail/consumer side is in balance, and the supply chain coming into the sales side is in balance, then the problem is gone. If Wall St. leverages, and credits all things to extreme, then that balance goes away, period!
If consumers only buy what they can afford, the retailers will only bring in what we will buy, and the country of source is irrelevant. The money lenders and movers are suspect at all times. The drum beat goes on.....

Has Gold Become Correlated to the Stock Market?

Gold has correlated to the markets for a while now. The hedge fund buying of gold and silver, and then the huge hedge fund redemption, margin calls, and derivative melt down, has caused gold and silver to move with the markets rather in their normal inverse move to market conditions. The commodities bubble also caused by the hedge funds, has multiplied the effect, adding more volatility, and has pulled precious metals along for the ride.

The Stock Market Is Not the U.S. Economy

I never thought I would be in the RUSSELL camp, but my independent numbers for a DJIA retrace at 7400-7500 are almost the same for his 50% retrace 1982-2007 Bull run at 7470 DJIA. Three retests this cycle is my best guess, maybe the last one February, 20, 2009! expiration day!!

Our own government and Wall St. have created their own Depression. They had to scare the general public into believing that the only way to save the country was to do this Bailout. To do that, they created the impression of a Depression coming, and we bought it, hook, line and sinker. People stopped buying out of induced, not real, fear! It now feeds off itself, and the government has a REAL problem, now! Good work guys!!! It is easier to break an expensive toy than to fix it, and the dumb guys, you figure out who you are, broke the toy, so that the next smart guy in office will have to spend all his time trying to fix it, and not get any meaningful work done.

So where does that leave us. Well, first fix the illusion problem, if we can.
Recessions do good things for the economy, lets let that happen so that all the excess greed blows off, and everyone else gets really efficient. Look for the new idea, product, and companies. They, the NEW, will lead us out of this hole we dug. Do I know how or when? No! But, I didn't know that in the last five recessions I've been in over 65 years either. But the chip, the computer, the Internet, the"............." next time, always seemed to happen. It never came out of the problem, and we never saw the cure, until it was THERE! The down side is that recessions hurt really bad. It's hard going through the eye of a needle......

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Trading Strategy: VIX Spread and the Stock Market

Great piece of analysis. The Hedge Fund Redemption and margin calls that started in October, and continues through current, and probably will end about Dec.1, plus the Mutual Fund Window Dressing for end of the year "look", are probably responsible for the extreme divergence we are seeing in the chart, that reversal Michael talked about.

Nice to see charts broken into components that I can not easily do, get to see trends and acceleration actually plotted. Thank you!

I am actually short the VIX now (in put options) We will see if the divergence in the VIX can out last the time frame of the puts! History says no, Buffet would say yes! I think Buffet's view may get me!! Dec. 17th is expiration.