couldashoulda

Risk Management in Trending Markets

Excellent article. Much to think aboout. However I dont see the reason for the trend line you draw for the DOW beginning in 1982. Seems arbitrary. If you drew the line starting in 2002, the "trend" would have been broken significantly already. Arbitrary straight trend lines dont appear to help manage a portfolio for the near term. Nevertheless, much to think about in terms of todays market and tendencies to revert to means. Thank you for your hard work

Commodity ETFs Overbought; Gold Least So

"short term pullback" is not necessary to adjust "overbought" as defined by the author. If the stock simply slows the speed of acceleration (continues to increase at a slower level), it will eventually not be overbought statistically.