BigOlDave's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/297579/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/173405-14-promising-chinese-dividend-stocks?source=feed#comment-764394 764394 HIMX) stock price has, indeed, been a disappointment for the long-term holder. But the price changes do NOT go lock-step with the dividend payout. Pop up a chart with the dividend payments and see for yourself.

HIMX's Chinese managers are educated in the U.S. and look like a savvy group. They have a good record of managing a maturing constellation of products, but the latest Q report indicates new business coming on-stream.

At the current price ($2.42/ADR), this is a good stock to fill in the cracks if you have some idle cash. I think the June 2010 dividend will be down to $0.25 -- but that's still 10%, with excellent upside potential.

I've doubled my position on the recent price slide.]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:54:26 -0500 HIMX) stock price has, indeed, been a disappointment for the long-term holder. But the price changes do NOT go lock-step with the dividend payout. Pop up a chart with the dividend payments and see for yourself.

HIMX's Chinese managers are educated in the U.S. and look like a savvy group. They have a good record of managing a maturing constellation of products, but the latest Q report indicates new business coming on-stream.

At the current price ($2.42/ADR), this is a good stock to fill in the cracks if you have some idle cash. I think the June 2010 dividend will be down to $0.25 -- but that's still 10%, with excellent upside potential.

I've doubled my position on the recent price slide.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173503-beyond-gld-four-alternative-gold-etfs?source=feed#comment-764350 764350 CEF), 99.4% is held in bullion in Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce vaults. The 0.6% in certificates is an expedient pending receipt of the bullion.

This is safer than having gold or silver in physical form in your home, and at least as safe as storing it in a safe deposit box.

I do not trust any of the ETFs.

I trust the Central Fund of Canada, particularly since they have nothing to do with the Canadian government.]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:09:28 -0500 CEF), 99.4% is held in bullion in Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce vaults. The 0.6% in certificates is an expedient pending receipt of the bullion.

This is safer than having gold or silver in physical form in your home, and at least as safe as storing it in a safe deposit box.

I do not trust any of the ETFs.

I trust the Central Fund of Canada, particularly since they have nothing to do with the Canadian government.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173557-gm-still-a-long-road-to-hoe?source=feed#comment-763901 763901
Not "ROAD".

Words reflect worth: use them wisely.]]> Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:26:48 -0500
Not "ROAD".

Words reflect worth: use them wisely.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172621-the-good-and-bad-of-wal-mart?source=feed#comment-756469 756469
If I don't see better days soon, I'm getting off this slow train!]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:45:45 -0500
If I don't see better days soon, I'm getting off this slow train!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167199-deja-vu-2008-crude-oil-market-entirely-detached-from-fundamentals?source=feed#comment-754313 754313
As for me, I'm grateful for her efforts. If I had one criticism -- which goes for perhaps 90 of the SA contributors -- it's that she (or he?) doesn't give enough actionable advice. Predicted direction of a related stock would give us not only information, but something to think about that might improve our health ...our economic health, that is.]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:19:42 -0500
As for me, I'm grateful for her efforts. If I had one criticism -- which goes for perhaps 90 of the SA contributors -- it's that she (or he?) doesn't give enough actionable advice. Predicted direction of a related stock would give us not only information, but something to think about that might improve our health ...our economic health, that is.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172391-our-market-forecast-project-results?source=feed#comment-754088 754088 MCD) doesn't appear on any of these lists. Very curious.]]> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:27:16 -0500 MCD) doesn't appear on any of these lists. Very curious.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171075-the-djia-s-dangerous-indexing-philosophy?source=feed#comment-744992 744992
Maybe that's because, when I hear the media report "the S&P is up 1.09 points for the day, closing at 1046.50", it's easy for my aging mind to calculate that the market's moved only about a 10th of a percent.

So I'll assume that I've made a little money today.]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:33:00 -0500
Maybe that's because, when I hear the media report "the S&P is up 1.09 points for the day, closing at 1046.50", it's easy for my aging mind to calculate that the market's moved only about a 10th of a percent.

So I'll assume that I've made a little money today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171044-cramer-s-stop-trading-the-fall-of-wal-mart-11-3-09?source=feed#comment-744952 744952
Wal-Mart is similarly "cut-throat", dealing only with suppliers who sell to them at a price where Wal-Mart (1) makes an acceptable (usually low) profit margin; AND (2) can offer the supplier's product at a price at or below competitors' stores'. Wal-Mart buyers are savvy negotiators who will always leverage volume (good for suppliers -- covers fixed costs and allows economies of scale) and price (good for Wal-Mart customers and, ultimately, shareholders). Suppliers are forced to tighten up their operations to stay in business.

Suppliers that opt to fight with Wal-Mart will get to see Wal-Mart's back: Wal-Mart will walk away. If Stanley Black & Decker thinks they can now squeeze higher prices out of Wal-Mart (or Lowes or Home Depot, for that matter), they will end up with a lot of power tools in their finished goods inventory. If I ever replace my Craftsman drill, I could care less who makes it, as long as it's good value (value = quality + price).

Many Americans still don't accept that all markets are now global. If we can't compete, we die.

In the meantime, Wal-Mart looks like the best, one-stop place in town for good stuff at a bargain price. It lets me maintain a standard of living my income would otherwise no longer permit.]]> Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:07:32 -0500
Wal-Mart is similarly "cut-throat", dealing only with suppliers who sell to them at a price where Wal-Mart (1) makes an acceptable (usually low) profit margin; AND (2) can offer the supplier's product at a price at or below competitors' stores'. Wal-Mart buyers are savvy negotiators who will always leverage volume (good for suppliers -- covers fixed costs and allows economies of scale) and price (good for Wal-Mart customers and, ultimately, shareholders). Suppliers are forced to tighten up their operations to stay in business.

Suppliers that opt to fight with Wal-Mart will get to see Wal-Mart's back: Wal-Mart will walk away. If Stanley Black & Decker thinks they can now squeeze higher prices out of Wal-Mart (or Lowes or Home Depot, for that matter), they will end up with a lot of power tools in their finished goods inventory. If I ever replace my Craftsman drill, I could care less who makes it, as long as it's good value (value = quality + price).

Many Americans still don't accept that all markets are now global. If we can't compete, we die.

In the meantime, Wal-Mart looks like the best, one-stop place in town for good stuff at a bargain price. It lets me maintain a standard of living my income would otherwise no longer permit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168424-owning-wal-mart-taking-the-vito-corleone-approach?source=feed#comment-728569 728569 WMT):

(1) S&P gives it 5 stars (“Strong Buy”) with a Target price of $62/share by mid-August 2010. That’s appreciation of over 2%/month, which, added to the current yield of 2.2% gives a return of 27% within the next year. Twenty-two analysts listed by FirstCall have a “Buy” on WMT (7 “Strong Buys), 11 “Buys”, and 4 “Holds”).

(2) At the rate WMT has increased dividends in past, the 2010 quarterly dividend (full year to be announced in the first week of March 2010) may be $0.32. At current prices ($50.44), that’s still only 2.5%. I would expect WMT to lure more institutional ownership (currently 37% of float) by raising the dividend to $.34/quarter, which still would be only 2.7%.

(3) Management has stated that it continues to pursue a strategy of low prices and high value, but has recently stated that WMT will be focusing less on building stores and more on improving net margins. Operating margins are a paltry 5.65% (vs. Sector’s 7.56%), but net margins are 3.42% (vs. Sector’s 2.63%). Part of this is due to addition of grocery departments, which generally have razor thin margins. This also means that prices may not be cut as much, but the other retailers’ net margins will be even further squeezed.

Obviously, I should disclose that I have a relatively large position in WMT. But I’m also a trader: I don’t fall in love with any investment and, if WMT doesn’t perform or if there are better opportunities elsewhere, I’ll not be a long-term holder.

Dave]]> Sat, 24 Oct 2009 15:15:09 -0400 WMT):

(1) S&P gives it 5 stars (“Strong Buy”) with a Target price of $62/share by mid-August 2010. That’s appreciation of over 2%/month, which, added to the current yield of 2.2% gives a return of 27% within the next year. Twenty-two analysts listed by FirstCall have a “Buy” on WMT (7 “Strong Buys), 11 “Buys”, and 4 “Holds”).

(2) At the rate WMT has increased dividends in past, the 2010 quarterly dividend (full year to be announced in the first week of March 2010) may be $0.32. At current prices ($50.44), that’s still only 2.5%. I would expect WMT to lure more institutional ownership (currently 37% of float) by raising the dividend to $.34/quarter, which still would be only 2.7%.

(3) Management has stated that it continues to pursue a strategy of low prices and high value, but has recently stated that WMT will be focusing less on building stores and more on improving net margins. Operating margins are a paltry 5.65% (vs. Sector’s 7.56%), but net margins are 3.42% (vs. Sector’s 2.63%). Part of this is due to addition of grocery departments, which generally have razor thin margins. This also means that prices may not be cut as much, but the other retailers’ net margins will be even further squeezed.

Obviously, I should disclose that I have a relatively large position in WMT. But I’m also a trader: I don’t fall in love with any investment and, if WMT doesn’t perform or if there are better opportunities elsewhere, I’ll not be a long-term holder.

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168489-top-10-investment-finance-websites-september-2009?source=feed#comment-727191 727191
Dave]]> Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:18:29 -0400
Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168489-top-10-investment-finance-websites-september-2009?source=feed#comment-727187 727187
Perhaps Fidelity has similarly extensive services ...?

Dave]]> Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:16:26 -0400
Perhaps Fidelity has similarly extensive services ...?

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165184-o-canada-part-ii-there-s-gold-in-them-thar-hills-and-plains?source=feed#comment-707096 707096 CEF), just pop up its chart and compare it to the gold ETF (GLD) and silver (SLV). CEF outperforms GLD, but SLV is doing the best. CEF is a blend of the two, holding about 60% gold and 40% silver. I suspect that, in the future, it will tilt toward silver, which is under-priced relative to gold.

And I feel a lot more comfortable owning CEF -- knowing the gold and silver they say is there is really there!]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2009 12:10:58 -0400 CEF), just pop up its chart and compare it to the gold ETF (GLD) and silver (SLV). CEF outperforms GLD, but SLV is doing the best. CEF is a blend of the two, holding about 60% gold and 40% silver. I suspect that, in the future, it will tilt toward silver, which is under-priced relative to gold.

And I feel a lot more comfortable owning CEF -- knowing the gold and silver they say is there is really there!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160607-hog-is-about-to-catch-swine-flu?source=feed#comment-672721 672721
"We are purchasing shares of Harley-
Davidson for Portfolio III this week.
With annual revenues of about $4.5 billion,
Harley is one of the world’s most
recognizable manufacturers and marketers
of heavyweight motorcycles.
The leisure-related stock, though well
off its 52-week low of $8, has taken a
big hit over the past year. Motorcycle
demand has dried up in the face of
weak economic fundamentals, and investors
have grown increasingly concerned
that the aging of the huge Baby
Boomer generation would permanently
damage the company’s domestic
business. (Baby Boomers have long
had a love affair with high-end Harley-
Davidson bikes.) But we believe that
the company’s best days are yet to
come, and that results will recover
quickly once the global economy
warms up.

The company, now headed by CEO
Keith Wandell (he took the helm in
May), has been managing its business
fairly well during the recession. Indeed,
Harley has slashed headcount,
boosted manufacturing efficiencies,
and significantly reduced its inventory
position, factors that should support
good earnings growth once the demand
demand picture stabilizes. Meanwhile,
over the next 3 to 5 years, results are
poised to benefit from share advances,
efforts to attract younger consumers in
the U.S., and a foray into the large market
in India."

I'm not convinced.
Dave]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 16:50:35 -0400
"We are purchasing shares of Harley-
Davidson for Portfolio III this week.
With annual revenues of about $4.5 billion,
Harley is one of the world’s most
recognizable manufacturers and marketers
of heavyweight motorcycles.
The leisure-related stock, though well
off its 52-week low of $8, has taken a
big hit over the past year. Motorcycle
demand has dried up in the face of
weak economic fundamentals, and investors
have grown increasingly concerned
that the aging of the huge Baby
Boomer generation would permanently
damage the company’s domestic
business. (Baby Boomers have long
had a love affair with high-end Harley-
Davidson bikes.) But we believe that
the company’s best days are yet to
come, and that results will recover
quickly once the global economy
warms up.

The company, now headed by CEO
Keith Wandell (he took the helm in
May), has been managing its business
fairly well during the recession. Indeed,
Harley has slashed headcount,
boosted manufacturing efficiencies,
and significantly reduced its inventory
position, factors that should support
good earnings growth once the demand
demand picture stabilizes. Meanwhile,
over the next 3 to 5 years, results are
poised to benefit from share advances,
efforts to attract younger consumers in
the U.S., and a foray into the large market
in India."

I'm not convinced.
Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160741-real-journalists-vs-bloggers-which-journalism-will-prevail?source=feed#comment-672691 672691
As a journalist, you had to have heard of "Spell Check". When you post, just click "ABC Check Spelling" and your post will more closely resemble that of someone who uses words for a living.

Dave]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 16:31:52 -0400
As a journalist, you had to have heard of "Spell Check". When you post, just click "ABC Check Spelling" and your post will more closely resemble that of someone who uses words for a living.

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160614-virtualization-demands-will-drive-the-next-network-revolution?source=feed#comment-672685 672685
Average P/E for this group is 33 (leaving out Sun with negative earnings), ranging from the long-in-the-tooth IBM and HP in the teens to VMware at 52 !

This is a nice recap of the SRI Infrastructure 2.0 meeting, but I'd have liked some investment ideas pro- or con- for these 11 companies, or others that might be big-time victims of the oncoming changes.

Dave]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 16:27:39 -0400
Average P/E for this group is 33 (leaving out Sun with negative earnings), ranging from the long-in-the-tooth IBM and HP in the teens to VMware at 52 !

This is a nice recap of the SRI Infrastructure 2.0 meeting, but I'd have liked some investment ideas pro- or con- for these 11 companies, or others that might be big-time victims of the oncoming changes.

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159231-walmart-launches-walmart-marketplace?source=feed#comment-672445 672445
As newspapers decay / disappear, we all look to other media for real, credible news coverage. The Huffington Post will be one of the last places I'll ever go -- correct that: I'll never go there -- for truth.

As Wiki notes ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... ), it gives a soapbox to the likes of Rosie O'Donnell and John Conyers. I get more opinions than I need from SA, realizing that SA also provides a forum to vapid, fringe thinkers.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 13:03:13 -0400
As newspapers decay / disappear, we all look to other media for real, credible news coverage. The Huffington Post will be one of the last places I'll ever go -- correct that: I'll never go there -- for truth.

As Wiki notes ( en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... ), it gives a soapbox to the likes of Rosie O'Donnell and John Conyers. I get more opinions than I need from SA, realizing that SA also provides a forum to vapid, fringe thinkers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160946-why-i-prefer-mcdonald-s-over-apple?source=feed#comment-672406 672406 MCD) shares.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 12:35:36 -0400 MCD) shares.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160472-why-i-m-shorting-costco?source=feed#comment-669299 669299 WMT) before the 3/09 dip -- WMT held up well. Now the market has caught up to it, which still makes no sense to me.

Investing in (COST) instead of (WMT) never made sense and still doesn't even tho it's caught up with Wal-Mart too. Just on the basis of P/E, WMT seems fairly-/under-valued and COST looks over-valued.

Good short call, Trader Mark. Unfortunately, I'm a long-only player.

Dave]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:56:34 -0400 WMT) before the 3/09 dip -- WMT held up well. Now the market has caught up to it, which still makes no sense to me.

Investing in (COST) instead of (WMT) never made sense and still doesn't even tho it's caught up with Wal-Mart too. Just on the basis of P/E, WMT seems fairly-/under-valued and COST looks over-valued.

Good short call, Trader Mark. Unfortunately, I'm a long-only player.

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160360-why-u-s-government-should-cut-federal-workers-lavish-compensation?source=feed#comment-667065 667065
Think about it: what if the USPS started delivering only 3X / week, alternating neighborhoods with either M/W/F or Tu/Th/Sa delivery? Would you be okay? Then how about once a week?

If we started aggressively phasing out the USPS and having UPS and FedEx bid on the work on a state-by-state basis, there would have to be savings to be realized.

Don't read this as a criticism of Postal Service employees, who rank high on the list of public servants IMO. But require the successful bidder (by state) to hire these people and let the private sector start turning the thing around.

Except for the armed forces, there is very little worthy of commendation about the way Federal government is run. And the scary thing is, recently the idea of having the Federal Government run more things that would impact our lives (think "Health Care Reform") is being well-received by the Federal Government employees that represent us.

Except for mine (Eric Cantor), I'd vote for terminating all of them!

Dave]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:01:31 -0400
Think about it: what if the USPS started delivering only 3X / week, alternating neighborhoods with either M/W/F or Tu/Th/Sa delivery? Would you be okay? Then how about once a week?

If we started aggressively phasing out the USPS and having UPS and FedEx bid on the work on a state-by-state basis, there would have to be savings to be realized.

Don't read this as a criticism of Postal Service employees, who rank high on the list of public servants IMO. But require the successful bidder (by state) to hire these people and let the private sector start turning the thing around.

Except for the armed forces, there is very little worthy of commendation about the way Federal government is run. And the scary thing is, recently the idea of having the Federal Government run more things that would impact our lives (think "Health Care Reform") is being well-received by the Federal Government employees that represent us.

Except for mine (Eric Cantor), I'd vote for terminating all of them!

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159231-walmart-launches-walmart-marketplace?source=feed#comment-658302 658302
My wife avoids shopping at Wal-Mart because of the long lines (as Yogi Berra said: "Nobody shops at Wal-Mart, it's too crowded!"). So I'm there at least 2X/mo. Usually the lines are no more than 2 deep and they have a lot of registers going.

We go to Wal-Mart for rock bottom-priced RXs (consistently beats my health plan's Medco option), other pharma items, groceries, hardware, bird seed ... anything: Wal-Mart seldom has an item with a higher price than what we'd pay elsewhere.

Nobody can compete with the internet for big-ticket items like PCs and TVs. I also think the internet will be the place to shop for a car in the future. We're already using the web to find homes.

So don't go to Wal-Mart for PCs, TVs, cars, or houses. For anything else, protect your standard of living by making a trip to Wal-Mart a regular event in your life.]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 11:00:48 -0400
My wife avoids shopping at Wal-Mart because of the long lines (as Yogi Berra said: "Nobody shops at Wal-Mart, it's too crowded!"). So I'm there at least 2X/mo. Usually the lines are no more than 2 deep and they have a lot of registers going.

We go to Wal-Mart for rock bottom-priced RXs (consistently beats my health plan's Medco option), other pharma items, groceries, hardware, bird seed ... anything: Wal-Mart seldom has an item with a higher price than what we'd pay elsewhere.

Nobody can compete with the internet for big-ticket items like PCs and TVs. I also think the internet will be the place to shop for a car in the future. We're already using the web to find homes.

So don't go to Wal-Mart for PCs, TVs, cars, or houses. For anything else, protect your standard of living by making a trip to Wal-Mart a regular event in your life.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156276-12-ready-to-rally-stocks-barron-s?source=feed#comment-634876 634876
Now I'm wondering about the wisdom of holding Wal-Mart (WMT). Let's see:

* stoXline's 12-mo target is $71.28 (that's 38%);
* S&P rates it 5/5 stars with ($62.00, yep = 20%) target;
* sales up 6.8% y-o-y;
* unfavorable forex impact likely to reverse if USD weakens;
* 2.3% dividend yield;
* $8 billion cash on books;
* retired $2.8 billion in stock in 7/31/09 qtr;
* cash flow positive $722 million in 7/31/09 qtr; and
* P/E lower than S&P, sector, and industry.

Well, I think my rationale for Wal-Mart is intact. Maybe I'll check out some of the others. Can't get excited about researching anything else on the list except Microsoft (MSFT). To free up funds to buy Microsoft, I don't think I'd sell any of my Wal-Mart.

Dave]]> Tue, 18 Aug 2009 12:05:53 -0400
Now I'm wondering about the wisdom of holding Wal-Mart (WMT). Let's see:

* stoXline's 12-mo target is $71.28 (that's 38%);
* S&P rates it 5/5 stars with ($62.00, yep = 20%) target;
* sales up 6.8% y-o-y;
* unfavorable forex impact likely to reverse if USD weakens;
* 2.3% dividend yield;
* $8 billion cash on books;
* retired $2.8 billion in stock in 7/31/09 qtr;
* cash flow positive $722 million in 7/31/09 qtr; and
* P/E lower than S&P, sector, and industry.

Well, I think my rationale for Wal-Mart is intact. Maybe I'll check out some of the others. Can't get excited about researching anything else on the list except Microsoft (MSFT). To free up funds to buy Microsoft, I don't think I'd sell any of my Wal-Mart.

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155601-gold-is-consolidating-prelude-to-a-breakout?source=feed#comment-627013 627013
One way I play both silver and gold is Central Fund of Canada (CEF) which holds its assets in the form of actual, physical gold (57%) and silver bullion ...not "certificates".

Dave]]> Wed, 12 Aug 2009 14:09:42 -0400
One way I play both silver and gold is Central Fund of Canada (CEF) which holds its assets in the form of actual, physical gold (57%) and silver bullion ...not "certificates".

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155609-telephony-once-the-most-stable-of-all-investments-now-one-of-the-riskiest?source=feed#comment-626880 626880
You're all pointing out flaws in this article. How do you think that makes the writer feel? He's an important, international traveler who needs all the help he can get from his smartphone.

So I'm going to say something GOOD: the graph of AT&T is good.

Dave]]> Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:40:47 -0400
You're all pointing out flaws in this article. How do you think that makes the writer feel? He's an important, international traveler who needs all the help he can get from his smartphone.

So I'm going to say something GOOD: the graph of AT&T is good.

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152902-retail-outlook-don-t-expect-substantial-improvement-for-back-to-school-2009?source=feed#comment-614751 614751
Check the sales at the end of the back-to-school season and see if I'm not right. Then buy Wal-Mart (if value is your benchmark) or Target (if ambiance is part of your equation).

Dave]]> Tue, 04 Aug 2009 11:42:36 -0400
Check the sales at the end of the back-to-school season and see if I'm not right. Then buy Wal-Mart (if value is your benchmark) or Target (if ambiance is part of your equation).

Dave]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151881-amgen-partners-with-glaxo-to-distribute-prize-pipeline-product?source=feed#comment-606805 606805
Amgen (AMGN) looks like an interesting investment at this point in time. As a sanity check, I went to other analysts. Here’s what I found:

· FirstCall averages a “Buy” with 9 Strong Buys, 8 Buys, and 4 Holds.

· Consensus from all broker/dealers (23 of them, mostly the same as FirstCall) average “Overweight”.

· S&P rates AMGN “Hold”, having recently increased it’s 12-mo target to (get this!) …$66.00.

· Reuters rates it overall “Neutral”, but “Outperform” on Quality (rated down on technicals and price catch-up).

· The MSN Stockscouter rates it an “8” (out of 10), noting positives of better earnings growth and very favorable price-to-sales multiple.

· StoXline – which bases estimates mostly on the chart patterns – predicts a 12 month target of $85.95.

· Value Line rates its Timeliness = 2, Safety = 1, and Technicals = 5, concluding “Amgen is loaded with cash and should be able to ride out the near-term volatility, while continuing to develop key components in its pipeline.”

· The Motley Fool investing community rates AMGN 4 stars out of 5

It seems like everyone is waiting until the FDA formally approves Denosumab drug for osteoporosis (10/19/09) and later for bone cancer. The recent Denosumab marketing agreement with GlaxoSmithKline is nicely backloaded, meaning you buy-and-hold folks can be comfortably leave Amgen in your portfolio and take a nap for the next 3 years.

Amgen traded at a high of $84.86 four years ago. The $85.95 target for August 2010 seems ambitious. But $75.00 does not look like a stretch. That would be a very safe 19% gain in what looks like a sideways-moving market.


Sentiment : Buy ]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 12:59:35 -0400
Amgen (AMGN) looks like an interesting investment at this point in time. As a sanity check, I went to other analysts. Here’s what I found:

· FirstCall averages a “Buy” with 9 Strong Buys, 8 Buys, and 4 Holds.

· Consensus from all broker/dealers (23 of them, mostly the same as FirstCall) average “Overweight”.

· S&P rates AMGN “Hold”, having recently increased it’s 12-mo target to (get this!) …$66.00.

· Reuters rates it overall “Neutral”, but “Outperform” on Quality (rated down on technicals and price catch-up).

· The MSN Stockscouter rates it an “8” (out of 10), noting positives of better earnings growth and very favorable price-to-sales multiple.

· StoXline – which bases estimates mostly on the chart patterns – predicts a 12 month target of $85.95.

· Value Line rates its Timeliness = 2, Safety = 1, and Technicals = 5, concluding “Amgen is loaded with cash and should be able to ride out the near-term volatility, while continuing to develop key components in its pipeline.”

· The Motley Fool investing community rates AMGN 4 stars out of 5

It seems like everyone is waiting until the FDA formally approves Denosumab drug for osteoporosis (10/19/09) and later for bone cancer. The recent Denosumab marketing agreement with GlaxoSmithKline is nicely backloaded, meaning you buy-and-hold folks can be comfortably leave Amgen in your portfolio and take a nap for the next 3 years.

Amgen traded at a high of $84.86 four years ago. The $85.95 target for August 2010 seems ambitious. But $75.00 does not look like a stretch. That would be a very safe 19% gain in what looks like a sideways-moving market.


Sentiment : Buy ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148959-investing-in-shipping-stocks-maximum-pessimism-is-here?source=feed#comment-605242 605242 GSL) ? Price is $1.18/share and they're showing a dividend of $0.92? A 77% yield? Are you kidding me?

Shippers are a good trade, not an investment. They disgorge their earnings in the form of enormous yields for the benefit of their (mostly Greek) owners.

And if you buy at a reasonable entry point, you can even see share price appreciation too.

But you have to be a masterful market timer to make above average total returns in this group. Good luck to the masterful.

But Global Ship Lease Inc. (GSL) ? Why would I take this seriously, even as a fast trade!

Dave
______________________...


On Jul 17 08:41 PM Michael Demaray wrote:

> Check out Global Ship Lease (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
> Long term container charters (10 yr average). When you back out
> excess cash it's trading at a Mkt Cap / Free Cash Flow Equity of
> less than 1. Currently negotiating waivers from LTV covenant with
> banks. Little liquidity and I suspect a dividend oriented institutional
> holder blew out their position this week taking the stock down dramatically....]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 13:21:51 -0400 GSL) ? Price is $1.18/share and they're showing a dividend of $0.92? A 77% yield? Are you kidding me?

Shippers are a good trade, not an investment. They disgorge their earnings in the form of enormous yields for the benefit of their (mostly Greek) owners.

And if you buy at a reasonable entry point, you can even see share price appreciation too.

But you have to be a masterful market timer to make above average total returns in this group. Good luck to the masterful.

But Global Ship Lease Inc. (GSL) ? Why would I take this seriously, even as a fast trade!

Dave
______________________...


On Jul 17 08:41 PM Michael Demaray wrote:

> Check out Global Ship Lease (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
> Long term container charters (10 yr average). When you back out
> excess cash it's trading at a Mkt Cap / Free Cash Flow Equity of
> less than 1. Currently negotiating waivers from LTV covenant with
> banks. Little liquidity and I suspect a dividend oriented institutional
> holder blew out their position this week taking the stock down dramatically....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151621-where-is-masco-headed?source=feed#comment-605087 605087 Tue, 28 Jul 2009 11:56:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150345-bob-nardelli-king-of-failure-gets-a-new-throne?source=feed#comment-601247 601247 Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:58:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150331-procter-gamble-a-valuation-opportunity?source=feed#comment-601215 601215 Fri, 24 Jul 2009 14:44:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150920-the-mac-vs-pc-debate-was-never-clearer?source=feed#comment-601076 601076
But I'm also turned off by a company that makes an OS as lousy as Vista, then tells us it will be October 2009 before we will be able to buy a high value PC with non-glitchy guts.

For me, "high value" is good quality at a reasonable price. The non-Apple PC market is where I'll shop after/iff I get good reports on Win7.

Dave]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 12:50:26 -0400
But I'm also turned off by a company that makes an OS as lousy as Vista, then tells us it will be October 2009 before we will be able to buy a high value PC with non-glitchy guts.

For me, "high value" is good quality at a reasonable price. The non-Apple PC market is where I'll shop after/iff I get good reports on Win7.

Dave]]>