BigOlDave

Bulls Take Clear Long Term Action on Deere

I like DE. But it's hobbled operationally and financially by the UAW, which has turned in a shabby showing with GM and Chrysler. I think resistance is based on fundamentals.

CAT is a better investment. The UAW-free CAT runs faster than the UAW-fatted DE.

Dave

Plunging Bond Market and Implications for Gold

Boris,

Nice, crisp analysis that confirms what a lot of us suspected would be happening. But I never thought of the correlation between gold and TIPS. Thanks for the insight.

Can't say that I'm as hot on gold as ChandraGupta, but he also has some good points. I have bets on the commodities and the Aussie via CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA), but think gold has outrun itself at these prices (I'm a buyer at a 5-10% retracement.

I also like bets on recovery of international trade via Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM), Brazil and telecom via Tele Norte Leste Participacoes SA Sponsored ADR (TNE), and recovery of electronics via Himax Technologies Inc (HIMX).

What do you think of my approach?

Dave

So Long, LCD Displays

A nice value/growth stock in this space is Himax Technologies Inc (HIMX) ...also has nice (8.8%) yield at today's price.

Dave

Hurco's 10-Q: Warranty Provision Concerns Revisited

I'm holding HURC, assuming (1) shares are at the lowest/best value now; and (2) world economy is in early stages of recovery. Also HURC's product line is increasingly attractive in Asia, so Europe -- though important to HURC's health -- is not the exclusive story. I expect, from these low share price levels, that HURC will outperform the S&P 500 by a wide margin.

Dave

20 'Bathwater Babies' and 20 'Dogs with Fleas' for the Week

The entire dry bulk shipper sector is worth shifting some available cash into right now. I prefer Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM) because it has maintained it's (Juicy) dividend. All of them recover along with the Baltic Dry Index, which is showing a significant upswing. Go to investmenttools.com/fu...

Dave

Is Buy and Hold Dead? Performance Update

Q. Is Buy and Hold Dead?

A. Yes.

Dave

Large Cap Stocks Set to Outperform

So, which big caps look appealing to any of you right now?

Dave

Baltic Dry Index Advances 24 Straight Days in a Row

I recommend Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM) as the best play on the improving BDI.

Dave

Genco Shipping: Coming Out of Hibernation

Navios Maritime Partners L.P.'s (NMM) chart beats DRYS (easily) and GNK (consistently) and yields 16% today. Cash flow covers the dividend 2X.

I don't mind the LP taxes and feel NMM is in the best sector (drybulk carriers). The fact that George Soros has a big position is good: Greeks know Greeks. Politically, I think Soros is a screwball. But NMM was a good stock pick, IMO.

Dave




On Jun 03 08:39 AM YoYoMama wrote:

> GNK appears to have no dividend. So many other shippers have dividends
> and are also on the rise. I wonder if there are superior opportunities
> elsewhere, with the likes of GMR, CPLP, etc.

UAW: It Should Be Giving Up More

Wow, Troy! 71 comments ! All from the pro-union folks.

The Detroit Three's problems can be layed right at the feet of management, not the union. The UAW won nothing the company negotiators didn't give away.

Employers can choose to stand up or give up. The Detroit Three gave up. Caterpillar stood up ... and is doing just fine without having to pass all employee-related decisions through the political morass of a union like the UAW.

The Big Three's demise should seal the labor movement's tomb. But obviously, there will be 71 or more old, passionate volunteers to roll away the stone from the mouth of the tomb ...and let all the stinky thoughts flow out into the public's nostrils again.

That this kind of mentality still lingers in America makes me puke!

Dave

Pair Trades: Bard and Intuitive Surgical

Regarding Jim Cramer, everybody loves to beat him up. He basks in the negative publicity. Meaning, Cramer is a colorful showman, but not a very useful investment advisor. The Motley Fool ranks Cramer 85th of 177 Wall Street stock pickers …with 45.7% accuracy (128th of 177).

So Jim Cramer has demonstrably below-average for someone who makes long recommendations for a living. In fairness to Cramer, he has 1,633 active picks to his name, 3X the next highest Wall Streeter, suggesting that nobody maintains a running inquiry with him that he would no longer own some of the stocks.

I’ve just signed up at your website ( www.investbymodel.com/ ) and will see how you stack up. Your “Top 20” portfolio is absolutely scalding the S&P 500 by over 23 percentage points. I expect that you will continue to beat the Wall Street crowd by a handsome margin. The Conservative Growth / Balanced portfolio might also be of interest. I’ve subscribed to an AB Analytical Services trial for DIY investors.

You run interesting screens for potential out performers or losers, then grind down into the fundamentals and key drivers. I like that about your SA posts. You’d bring an interesting freshness to a talking-head TV show based on investment screening and a pick or two, along with your thesis for it. This would be a combination of technical analysis, granular fundamentals and horse sense.

I bet you would be a bigger star than Cramer.

But you’d be subjected to even more critics like Cretin.

Dave

Pair Trades: Bard and Intuitive Surgical

Alan: You are one of my favorites. And I agree that Cetin has never had a thought I’d consider worth sharing.

I own 200 shares of Bard (BCR). Seeing it compared with ISRG was interesting, but it would seem that – except for the fact that both sell to hospitals – they are very different companies.

In terms of metrics, what appealed to me about BCR compared to all other investments out there (I passed over MOS and POT recently in favor of BCR) is its low beta (0.36), high gross margins (62%), low P/E (17), solid growth (9.5% CAGR, with 14% expected in the future, certainly less flashy than ISRG), a stunningly high S&P IQ (223/250) and very low debt/equity (0.08, though it is hard to beat zero).

I felt I needed Healthcare exposure (Bard is in patient care devises & supplies) to give my portfolio balance in a sector expected to perform well in a recessionary economy. BCR showed up on screens using metrics like the above that are important to me.

Other analysts also like BCR. S&P gives it 5 stars (Strong Buy); Reuters rates it “Outperform”; and FirstCall has it “Buy”. ValueLine has it top rated for Timeliness and Safety. Among the shareholder masses, The Motley Fool community gives both 4 stars (out of 5).

Recently BCR shares are seeing relatively heavy institutional accumulation. Compare the charts of ISRG and BCR and you also find that BCR is the Steady Eddie of the pair.

Thanks again, Alan, for your interesting analyses.

Dave

Time to Flee the Dollar?

Canada or Australia -- YES.

Russia -- ABSOLUTELY NEVER!!

Access Pharma: Low Valuation, Big Potential

In 9/2008 Griffin Securities rated ACCP a "Buy" at $3 with a $14 target after it drifted down from $5.

Then, Griffin again called ACCP a "Buy" at $1.70 (down 43% in TWO months!!), keeping the $14 target.

Now Griffin adjusted the 5/2010 target to $7.50 after it fell another 16.5% in FIVE months.

Technically, this stock is a total LOSER ... an investor's nightmare. Fundamentally, as pumped above and by hapless Griffin, this has the makings of a classic 5-bagger.

But everything I read, including my own portfolio updates, suggests that investors are taking less risk, rather than plunking down cash that odds suggest will evaporate.

Sorry, Mike: no sale!

Dave

Analysts Are Clueless on Noble

Noble: good company? Agreed.

Good investment? Still not sure.