JoeSixPack

Capacity's Comeback Strongly Indicates Recession's End

In a "normal" business cycle, this would be an indicator that we are on an upturn, perhaps. But, we are not in a normal business cycle. In a normal business cycle:

1. We are not sitting on $1 QUADRILLION in frozen up derivatives (with no real hope of unfreezing, since many are related top 3 and 4)
2. We do not have 17% (real) unemployment
3. We do not have a complete financial system breakdown
4. We are not in a spiraling residential foreclosure process, with a commercial real estate collapse just around the corner
5. etc. (and there is plenty of that to go around)

Yes, we still have 350 million people who need stuff, so mnaybe companies cut back a little too much, and retailers stopped a little too much delivery, but to ccall the end of a recession based on signals interpreted over the last 20 years of "normal" activity seems much too optimistic, if not outright foolish.