Marcap

Eight Ways eBay can Unlock Shareholder Value

Unfortunately while John Donahoe is at the helm at eBay, there really is no shareholder value to unlock.

eBay was once a great company. It offered a somewhat different online shopping experience by allowing, and in fact promoting true auctions, while catering to the many millions of Ma and Pa sellers which made up the real eBay. But that has changed. Donahoe, with his anti-seller policies, has destroyed virtually everything that was eBay. Unfortunately he chose to sacrifice millions of loyal eBay sellers in favor of a mere handful of mega-sellers, who not only offer little of true value to eBay, but are in fact driving away many long-time buyers and sellers alike. Now sadly enough, eBay is no longer remotely special. It is just another online mall, and even then sadly enough, does not come even remotely close to such places as Amazon. And of course this clearly accounts for eBay's recent lack of growth and loss of market share, while Amazon and others are quickly gaining what eBay is throwing away.

David Einhorn’s Top Three Stock Ideas

I like your long position on MIM better than any of your 3 stock ideas.

MIM indeed looks like it has great potential. After all, with a P/E ratio of only 3.50, earnings per share of $1.34, a Div / Yield of $0.60 (13.70%), with over 17% of o/s shares held by insiders, and of course trading at less than 13% of book value ($4.70 price vs $37.40 book), what's not to like?

I currently hold no position in MIM, but that may change before the day is out.

Citi Breaks the Buck

I agree! It is money that taxpayers are all going to have to pay back eventually, one way or another. But that being said, at least if the "taxpayers" receive it now, as opposed to the banks and other failing organizations, we will have had the opportunity to enjoy it in the interim. Or let's put it another way: If the government is going to take $80,000+ from you and several of your future generations to fund this mess (which it will), would you not at least like to have a say in what that money will be used for? Currently you have no say whatsoever. On the contrary, only those who have a vested interest in receiving a significant portion of that money have any say at all.

On Mar 09 12:04 AM mac.barron wrote:

> While I agree with Marcap that giving the money to the banks is a
> huge waste, just giving it to individuals makes no sense either as
> we will all have to pay that money back someday. Better that the
> government just not squander that money in the first place.

About the Fed, Purity, and Barney Frank

Unfortunately I think that Barney Frank is not much different than most other politicians in any Party or Country. "Country First" is only something that they give lip-service to when in public. Whereas "Self First" is what they really mean, as their actions quite often prove.

On Mar 05 10:53 PM ED K wrote:

> If you believe Barney Frank is concerned about the welfare of the
> country you also believe in the tooth fairy.

Ten Stocks to Hold Long-Term - Barron's

Sorry! My opening comment was merely intended to question eBay's placement in the Author's/Barron's list of long-term holds. I didn't realize it was going to incite a riot. :)

On Mar 08 09:41 PM StockMarketSage.com wrote:

> I went to boxing match and a hockey game broke out...I went to stock
> story and an Ebay Brawl has broken out.

Citi Breaks the Buck

This whole bailout thing is mind boggling to say the least, not even so much in the actual dollars involved, but rather in who those dollars are being given to. After all, what pray tell is the logic in giving 100s of billions, if not trillions of dollars, to the very same people who caused these problems in the first place? To me, that is tantamount to tossing extra money to a bank robber as he is running out the door.

It has been estimated (Bloomberg.com) that total bailouts could cost as much as $9.7 trillion before this is all said and done....bailouts which taxpayers will eventually have to repay, one way or another. Yet those are bailouts for which the majority of taxpayers will receive no significant benefit in return, at least not from the way I see it.

Of course I have no solid basis on which to determine the accuracy of that $9.7 trillion estimate, whether it is high or low, but I do know this: There are approximately 110 million households in the US. $9.7 trillion dollars divided equally among all households would result in tax-free (at least for now) income per household of approximately $88,182. Now that amount will not make anyone rich, but it is still a fair amount of money. But regardless, I would like for anyone to try and explain how giving $9.7 trillion to the banks and other failed institutions, would be more beneficial to the US economy, than giving over $88K to each and every American family. In my opinion, the first will do very little if anything to stimulate the economy, whereas the latter would stimulate it beyond belief, save many good and valuable companies, and likely result in the longest and most sustainable bull run in history, not to mention the fact that the Country would near if not reach full employment for many many years to come. So the choice should be clear... Give it to the corrupt and/or poorly run organizations to likely continue doing as they have done, or give it to the people? I for one would vote for the people.

My source for $9.7 trillion estimate:

www.bloomberg.com/apps...

On Mar 08 10:23 PM Husker Mark wrote:

> If I really thought the government could successfully bail out Citi
> I'd be buying now. However, Citi still has so many "off" balance
> sheet assets that one has to question, why are those assets not on
> the balance sheet? I can't help but think that if those assets were
> of any decent quality or value that they Citi execs would find a
> way to move them to the balance sheet pronto.
>
> This company continues to be swimming in problems that haven't even
> been defined yet. And speaking of which, please remind me why we
> taxpayers are paying for what neither we nor our fearless leaders
> understand?

Citi Breaks the Buck

Indeed! Truer words were never spoken. Let the dead rest in peace, and save the taxpayers billions which no doubt will never be repaid.

On Mar 08 05:39 PM ED K wrote:

> I can't believe we are still commenting on C,this bomb should be
> well on it's way to liquidation and imprisonment of the crooks that
> ran it.The stench of this one will linger for many a year to come.

Is Health Care Properties a Buy?

HCP indeed looks like it may have potential.

1. Solid Balance Sheet: CA = $285M vs CL = $225M; TA = $12.03B vs TL = $6.74B

2. Trading at less then book value: Price = $16.08 vs BV = $19.39

3. P/E Ratio: 8.97

4. Div & Yield: $1.84 / 10.10%

I would not however expect to continue receiving a dividend of $1.84, especially given that it is slightly greater than the company's EPS of $1.76. Clearly doing so would not be logical unless there is a significant increase in net income. At current profit levels, a dividend around $0.90 would be much more realistic.

Ten Stocks to Hold Long-Term - Barron's

Please don't get me (or us) wrong! At least speaking for myself, I am not an eBay basher. In fact, I love(d) eBay. What I bash now, is not eBay per se, but rather eBay's current policies (and direction) under John Donahoe, and his management team.

I agree...at $50 per share, few were bashing eBay. But at $50 per share, JD was not at the helm. I will also agree that most of the complaints we now have are somewhat built into the decline of the stock and its current level, which I'll admit may be close to a bottom. But bottoming out is just one part of the equation. In order for it to rise again, maintaining the status quo will not do. Radical changes must be made. And those changes must include replacement of eBay's current management under Donahoe, and among other things, a change from feedback 2.0 back to the old system, along with a renewed emphasis on "true" auctions which were really what made eBay...eBay, setting it apart from just another online mall.

On Mar 07 02:35 PM Egg wrote:

> All you rabid Ebay bashers realize you are probably contrary indicators.
>
> The stock is already down over 80% based on the problems mentioned.
> Few were bashing it so rabidly at 50/share. And yet now nothing but
> bashers which usually, historically speaking, is a great time to
> buy a stock that is suffering from many internal problems and being
> bashed by everyone....cuz if those problems get fixed, then zoom
> zoom zoom.
>
> Just an observation...
>

Ten Stocks to Hold Long-Term - Barron's

Exactly! Yet investors are continually misled (by eBay board) into believing that eBay still has upward potential with JD at the helm, even though the markets suggest otherwise. And then of course speaking of brand names, there is that $7.8B in Goodwill and other intangibles on eBay's Balance Sheet, which for those who know how to read financial statements will quickly realize, that removal of such will reduce S/H Equity by 70% to a Net Book Value of just $2.59 per share. And $2.59 is less than 25% of current market price. So are eBay shares likely to rise significantly in price anytime soon? I really don't think so....especially not with their current policies, and with competition growing daily.

On Mar 07 01:33 PM Black Is White wrote:

> Thanks for your list.
>
> Your article might have been more beneficial to readers if contained
> current thoughts on ebay and the ebay "brand".
>
> Go to your Post Office on a Saturday or any day there is a long line.
> Say the word "Ebay". See what happens.
>
> Go to a crowded swap meet. Say the word "Ebay". See what happens.
>
> Go to an antiques mall. Say the word "Ebay" to any dealers you meet.
> See what happens.
>
> Go to a local auction house. Mix with the crowd. Say the word "Ebay".
> See what happens.
>
> Go to a local auction house. Mix with the crowd. Say the word "Ebay".
> See what happens.
>
> Go to a local unemployment line. Mix with the crowd. Say the word
> "Ebay". See what happens.
>
> Go to a local social services office. Mix with the crowd. Say the
> word "Ebay". See what happens.
>
> Go to the Motley Fool site. Put up a post asking for thoughts on
> the ebay "brand".. See what happens.
>
> Go to the Jim Cramer's Mad Money site at CNBC. Put up a post asking
> for thoughts on the ebay "brand".. See what happens.

Ten Stocks to Hold Long-Term - Barron's

I can't possibly imagine why eBay would be in the above list.

I am confident that eBay shares will never again rise much above their current level. On the contrary, they will likely continue to decline unless and until there is a complete change in eBay management and its anti-seller policies are retracted. And that includes getting rid of John Donahoe. Only then will confidence in eBay begin to rise, and start it on the road to recovery. But until then, eBay unfortunately in my opinion, holds little value for its sellers, its buyers or its shareholders.

And as for the claim that "The company is also doing everything it can to minimize counterfeit problems", clearly the writer has very little experience dealing on eBay, or she would know just how completely inaccurate that statement is.

eBay is doing next to nothing to curb the sale of counterfeit items on its site. As many know, eBay is awash with counterfeit items by some of eBay's largest sellers...and their businesses continue to flourish unchecked. The fact of the matter is that eBay only gives lip-service to counterfeiting, with the occasional take-down of a few items merely to appease complainers. But in reality, there is next to nothing eBay can do without slitting its own throat. In short, getting rid of the counterfeiters would result in eBay cutting a great deal of its own revenue, and I am not convinced that is something eBay is prepared to do...especially while fighting the occasional counterfeiting lawsuit costs them a lot less.

eBay to Hold Analyst/Investor Day: Ten Questions to Ask Them

I'm not sure that eBay stock will ever go completely to zero, but I am confident that it will never again rise much above its current level...not until there is a complete change in management and its anti-seller policies are retracted, and of course Donahoe is shown the door. Only then will confidence in eBay begin to rise, and start it on the road to recovery. But until then, eBay sadly enough holds little value for its sellers, its buyers or its shareholders.

On Mar 06 11:20 AM NYM Arts wrote:

> Hi Scot,
> Just a Reminder :
> EBAY BOTTOM = ZERO
> Back Away Slowly.......

What's Driving Stocks Lower? Gap Between Investor Expectations and ROE

The main thing which is driving stocks lower is the perception that they will go lower. Unfortunately when enough people think something is going to happen, it quite often will happen, not because there is just cause for the result, but rather it merely becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Many people now believe that there is nothing but doom and gloom ahead, and unfortunately for many, that in itself will lead to even more doom and gloom. The silver lining however is the fact that despite the current downturn in the markets, there are many who will make a fortune from it because they have the insight to see through this curtain-of-doom perception and spot the many opportunities that the markets now offer. Sadly enough, as usual, it will be those who promote doom and gloom, who will later look back and wonder why they are where they are, when the answer will be quite clear to the optimists...they (the pessimists) simply missed the many opportunities to do otherwise.

AutoZone: No Repeat

Correction:

In my Facts # 2 above: Net S/H Equity (Deficit) should read ($242.648M) and NOT ($242.648B) as stated.

AutoZone: No Repeat

Facts:

1. AutoZone shares are trading at near their 52-week high, trading at $152.76 vs a 52-week high of $157.49.

2. Net Shareholder Equity is actually negative after deducting Goodwill of $302.6M. Net S/H Equity (Deficit) = ($242.648B).

3. Share book value is still only $1.04 even if we include Goodwill, which means that at $152.76, AZ is trading at almost 147 times book value.

4. Current Liabilities slightly exceed Current Liabilities. CL = $2.528B vs CA = $2.462B

5. Sales for the year ending Aug 30, 2008 were only up 5.7% from the prior year. 2008 = $6.523B vs 2007 = $6.170B

6. Sales for most recent Q1 (Nov 30, 2008) were actually down 33% from Q4 (Aug 30, 2008). Q1 = $1.478B vs Q4 = $2.211B

Opinions:

The fact that people are not buying as many new cars, in my opinion should not greatly impact after-market sales for auto parts, since the only thing which really changes is ownership. After all, even I were to buy a new car today, someone else would likely buy my old one and eventually need parts for it. Thus it would not be a car removed from the market. Sure there will be some cars which will go to the scrap yards as opposed to being sold, but that is always the case no matter if people buy new cars or not, since most cars do eventually get to the point where it costs more to fix them, than they are worth. And of course, there will still be accidents and therefore car write-offs. So unless the insurance companies suddenly decide to fix seriously damaged cars as opposed to writing them off, I see no significant rise in after-market auto-parts sales.

Conclusion:

I agree with Dan. At $152.76, I believe that AutoZone is way over-priced. At $152.76 per share, I think that shorting this stock is among one of the best shorting opportunities available today. Time of course will tell.

Unlike Dan, I do not hold any position in this stock.