Nick14902

Today in Commodities: Dollar Up, Again

Anyone that jumped onto the "band wagon" on $82 Oil is going to feel really bad. They should start the sell off by tommorrow. I dont like being a nay-sayer, but common $82 oil? The only reason on the spike last week was due to a less than bad report on inventories? I am waiting for $72 to unwind my short. The rise in the dollar is just the first downward leg for oil. Next will be the realization that no one is driving to work in the morning.

Today in Commodities: Many Ways to Skin a Cat

Are you wating for a pull back of around $75, before you see a full blow move upward?

BubbleOmics: Oil's Fair Price Won't Go Down

Andrew,

Excellent point, I must admit that oil being underpriced at $75 is a very sobering thought. Thanks again for the great article.


On Oct 16 09:13 AM Andrew Butter wrote:

> Thank you.
>
> I have no doubt that oil will bounce around, my interest in oil is
> long-term (the work I do requires five to ten year projections).
>
>
> The difference between what I do and what you do is like you say
> "in three days it will be sunny", what I do is say "in June it will
> be much more sunny than now", I'm more likely to be right, but that's
> because I have a different (easier) perspective.
>
> The analysis that I did simply tells you (I think) whether oil (stocks,
> housing etc) are over or under-priced, there is typically a symmetry
> to that which I explain in my article on bubbles, big picture it's
> highly unlikely to go down a lot when it is under-priced, there needs
> to be another bubble before that starts to happen.
>
> Good luck!

BubbleOmics: Oil's Fair Price Won't Go Down

I have to start with writing about the enjoyment your article brought me. I must however expalain that oil will make a turn downward from here. for the past 3 months I have watched oil push towards $74 only to fall down to $65. when I saw oil fall to $63 2 weeks ago, I along with everyone else knew it was time to go "all in" we had not seen a dip like this since the begining of July. I will start to set up my short, because as much as I want to believe oil will go to $80, it wont. if oil was going to go to $80 today would have been the day. tommorrow, or albeit monday will be the pull back. I will be ready on tuesday to repurchase oil at $69

'Green Shoots' Are a Mirage: Economy Will Deteriorate Further

Kim,
I agree with you wholly... Lets take this back to just simple economics 101 (which after reading the comments, a lot of you have never taken) "The Law of Diminishing Return"

Great Post Kim! Someone should address the Bubble in Oil. That will be the first to burst, then Kim's prediction will be devastatingly true.

No one has a job, Oil is piling up...it's peak driving season and refineries are at 83% capacity??! Does that sound like $72 oil?? and I don't buy the fodder than China is creating the demand. This is going to be one nasty pop!


On Aug 13 09:12 AM Moses Kim wrote:

> Does nobody,
>
> "Yes consumption is 70% of GDP but it is intrinsically stable, people
> have to buy food, clothes, gasoline, etc. Swings in GDP are not driven
> by consumption and this is statistically provable as well as intuitively
> sensible "
>
> Hence my point about increased government spending. All spending
> is not created equal. I don't have the exact stats on me, but we
> are getting to the point where more and more government spending
> is having less and less of an effect on GDP. The party can only go
> on for so long.

Leveraged ETF Ban Spreading Like the Flu

Too Bad you only bought 1 share..lol, JK I am a fan of these ETF's Too.


On Jul 29 12:24 AM omegaelec wrote:

> Hi missing link. thank you for the interesting dialog. you mentioned
> that you use a proprietary algorithm. i am trying to improve my timing
> and looking for a good service to help. can you tell us which one
> you are currently using? have you tried others? thanks in advance.
>

Noticed the Oil Backup?

Great Article.. Thankyou. I am still short on Oil in the near term. The Market has moved up way to fast. I do see oil going to $200 in 5 years, but that is then, this is now. Once all that extra storage is used up. Spot prices are going to fall, They have too. People will be letting it go at rock bottom prices to make room for more oil to be stored. Everyone is just buying oil to store it...Short Term this puppy is going to crash.

Friday Market Preview: Was Dow 8,000 the Bottom?

You wait the this one is going to be volitale. People are going to cash out today like no ones business, people are going to try to make some money for the week! Fridays bell will be horriable. You think Europe tumbling into a recession is going to help? Strong dollar, week Europe who are we going to sell to? Asia, Crap is going to really hit the fan. Also Congress now says the bailout of the big 3 might not be possible, not enough votes.

Hmm Im thinking - Close at 8200 maybe even 7,900.


On Nov 14 05:51 AM CLH wrote:

> Where did the money come from in the 1940s war? Our debt was 5 times
> larger then today (%of GDP). We soon paid it off with no inflation.
> This is what ended the depression. Spend--spend spend.