disdaniel

SunPower Plans for Made-in-America Products

Smart move.

Q-Cells Shortens Work Hours, Vestas Lays Off 1,900

SHAS,

There are three reasons for the price drop as I see it:
1) silicon price drop b/c supply is no longer the bottleneck
2) economic downturn is reducing demand (relative to what it was expected to be); solar almost requires cheap financing
3) excess solar capacity (b/c of the downturn) is hurting even the strongest solar players

All three factors are somewhat intertwined. 2) & 3) are temporary and will resolve themselves over the next 12 months...presumably because the downturn will end, and/or some marginal capacity will go away. The price drop due to 1) will persist for a few years--until growth returns and outstrips silicon supply again.

As for how much weight each of these factors is contributing to the price decline, who can say?

Interview with Akeena Solar CEO Barry Cinnamon

I think a number of those price forecasts are reckless (or unsustainable). To start with, his numbers don't seem to match up to reality.
"When installed costs get down to $3.50 in about a year "

No way are costs gonna fall in half by next year.

Leaving Green to the Free Market - Barron's

Here is the letter I wrote to Donlan in response to the Barron's article (quotes are taken directly from the article):

Who are earth's real friends?
Obviously not Barrons!

Banning DDT: "It has been a huge success at a minimal cost."

Lead-free gas: "Removal of lead from the atmosphere by banning it from gasoline is also a big success"

"at a significant but hidden cost"
"Nobody has ever told us how much more we pay for cars whose emissions are lead free"
"but Americans are probably glad to pay it for the improvement in public health"

How do you a) know it was significant if nobody ever told you how much? b) get off your lazy duff and do some research to find out! and c) if Americans are glad to pay it then maybe the cost wasn't as significant as you intimate/speculate--in... the cost may have been negative considering the public health benefit.

If the "free" market is so good at valuing wildlife and clean air, then why did it take government action to create these success?

and lastly WHY OH WHY are you grousing about a $3 billion NYC energy efficiency/building improvement investment that will save NYC building owners $750 million per year? Is mandating an investment with a 25% return so horrible?

Renewable Energy Cost Curves: 1980-2020

@ Suncatcher: electricity "about 5.75- 7.5 cents per KWH"

Who and where is the customer that is only paying 6c-7c/kwh? I believe the average us retail price is between 9-10c/kwh (oh I'm sure someone in the Dakota's might be under 7c/kwh)

"The above price comparisons ignore tax rebates and incentives because I think it is more appropriate to compare the real costs- not rebated costs."

So fossil fuel sources that spew out CO2 (implicit subsidy which we don't account for in $ or cents) contain the real costs, but alternative sources should be compared without their subsidy?

Oh yeah that is fair!

Slightly OT

"Many people have be heralding stunning breakthroughs ahead for the thirty years I have been doing this but there hasn't been any."

I've got three different inventions (all patent pending) that will lower the cost of PV solar by as much as ~10% (each).

One is described/pictured here:
time-is-energy.blogspo...

I know lots of wild claims are made, but this example is pretty easy to verify. FWIW it works with solar thermal systems too--i.e. uses ~30% less copper per thermal watt--although I think the raw material cost of PV is a larger percent of the panel/installed cost than for thermal.

Solar Companies Squeezed Twice by Economic Crisis

Interesting tidbit if your investment timeframe is 3-4 months, otherwise fairly irrelevant imo.

Renewable Energy Cost Curves: 1980-2020

did you read the footnote on the charts?

It says 2002 (constant dollars) these are historical cost trends only.

For that I would assume they were fairly accurate up to 2002.

Solarbuzz.com puts current day levelized cost of PV at just under 21c/kwh. I'm not sure how that regresses to 2002 constant dollars or if that is even what you are asking.

I would say that the relative costs (i.e. between charts) seems to remain resonable.

Cleantech Companies Will Stimulate Recovery

Keithfeather,
You need to count ALL costs or your analysis is flawed. The world is waking up to the fact that we have been ignoring/underpricing pollution costs with respect to energy use. In addition the cost trajectory of green technologies is down while the cost trajectory of fossil fuels is up--even if you continue to ignore pollution costs.

Lithium Batteries: Nothing But Illusion

What a wonderfully one-sided piece.

Static analysis at its best...luckily the one thing you can be sure of is that events will not unfold as this author supposes.

Prometheus Institute: Renewables Likely to Represent 90% of New Capacity by 2012

"Solar and wind together represented only 6 percent of the seven percent."

Solar and wind may count for 2 percent (I thought it was ~1%) but certainly not 6 percent of all energy consumed in the US.

Solar's Dead Cat Bounce May Be Over

"one company offered a price of $0.69/kW"

It is hard to take an article seriously with errors/misprints like this! At best the author is off by a factor of 1000.

Economic and Technical Factors Create Winners and Losers in the Solar Cell Market

And I thought this guy was serious until I saw this:

"we may see prices drop from $1.85 per watt this year to less that $0.50 in two years."

Did he accidentially divide those figures by 2? or is he talking about something other than solar panels/power?

I don't see solar prices getting under $1 per watt...for the simple reason that manufacturers won't be able to keep up with the wall of demand (that would exist at that price).

Want Solar Panels? China Will Pick Up the Tab

Zach, the monthly savings from a 50kw install would be at best 1/2 (more likely 1/3) the $5k you project. (although in CA with 2009 state and fed incentives the cost to the business would also be less)

1 watt of solar generates ~ 2kwh/yr of power under optimal conditions (like the US southwest) so unless you are paying (or being paid) $0.50+/kwh you can't pay off a $5/w investment in less than five years.

I'm a big booster of solar, but w/o incentives people should not be looking for <10yr simple payback. Outside the SW, even with incentives <15yr simple payback will be hard to achieve.

BTW to a purchaser of solar panels a 10 yr payback is equivalent to a 10% no-risk bond yield.

Department of Energy Technology Metals Subsidy Program Is Short-Sighted

Take a CHILL pill Sir!

Solar Targets Slashed as Demand Seen Dropping by 25%

I think these "solar" analysts are taking the results of 1 bad quarter, and projecting them out for the year.

"News" of writedowns on inventory and raw materials is to be expected given the precipitious unwinding of the silicon shortage (coincident with the credit crunch)--which is rippling through to finished panel prices. I think investors (and presumably these analysts work for investors) care more about how the company(s) will do over the next few years than the last few months...