NP Refugee

Perspective on John Malone's Sirius Stance

I worked for John Malone at one time in my career, so I can speak with absolute authority when I tell you that he is not only smart, he is very keen when it comes to perception about the potential of businesses. He is looking beyond the surface and has probably sized up the business wisely. I haven't spoken to him in over 10 years, but his way of thinking would be this:

If the Fairness Doctrine comes back, then talk radio goes to satellite radio. Whatever his motivation, he is betting on some event that will fundamentally alter the chess board.

I will say this about him too. I had to present my budget to he and several others every year. The others always appeared distracted--some to the point of reading the WSJ as I presented. Not John. He hung on every word I said and I felt he was scanning my brain. That is one seriously focused and engaged man.

New iPhone App Could Boost Sirius XM's Cash

All you folks are missing the big picture here. The reason this is a great investment is because of two events:

1. When (not really a question of "if") Congress brings back the Fairness Doctrine (how Ayn Rand), the conservative talk show holdouts will flock to the satellite nets along with their audiences. The Rush audience is 20 million strong and loyal. While some are already there, their audiences have options today of talk radio or satellite. If talk goes away from analog radio, the satellite option will be the primary conduit for distribution.

2. The big tech play is when SIRI shakes hands with the GPS guys and brings in an advertising stream that is based upon location. OnStar has the capability now, to a degree. A whole new targeted revenue stream that allows ads based upon your proximity to an advertiser: "Hungry? There's a Cracker Barrel just a few short miles ahead." Based on time/location: "If you're tired of driving, getting sleepy and are looking for a great room at a great price, you're only minutes from the Marriott Courtyard."

The iPhone step gets them ever closer--especially when you stop to consider the GPS in every iPhone. All quite achievable, really. It's going to happen. Too much upside for Garmin/et al, and way too much ad revenue for SIRI. Think big, peeps! You saw it here first. 12-18 months is my guess.