Hmm?!

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

apirri,

Good Question. I was not sure about David's gap comment.

As a general rule.....most gaps usually fill within a few days. However gaps are also indicators of strong directional movement.

Hmmmm???


On Oct 28 07:28 PM apirri wrote:

> David, UNG has only $10 to go before it is zero. What do you think?

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

IMHO.......just speak to fundamentals and ignore the prognostiticators...who do not speak to fundamentals. Then your issues are timing and the spin doctors as you mention below.....that is still more than enough to worry about.


On Oct 28 05:57 PM Alex Trias wrote:

> Alas, what a difference a day makes. The big excitement today is
> how many ETFs sliced through their 50 day moving averages. I expect
> Dave will have something to say about that in his next article, which
> I await with great interest.
>
> Some would argue that a failure to observe a 50 day moving average,
> at a time when short term momentum indicators like the NYMO are already
> at oversold extremes, suggests we are at the front end of an intermediate
> downward trend (or worse). If so, then we will be in the most heavily
> and widely anticipated market correction in recent history. Yes,
> we are all conditioned to believe that the market rarely rewards
> the majority-held view, but perhaps this truly is The New Normal
> - to borrow a phrase from Bill Gross. In the New Normal, the majority
> actually get it right, and are richly rewarded by the market. <br/>
>
> Which reminds me, anyone notice Abby Joseph Cohen stepped down this
> year at Goldman? Ahhhh, at the highs of the market bubble back in
> the late 1990s, Abby Joseph Cohen was practically a household name,
> offering up her widely accepted views that the stock market had nowhere
> left to go but up, thanks to the miraculous and new dynamics of the
> tech industry. In the late 1990s, we all knew we were in a fundamentally
> new era, that markets would absolutely go higher and higher, perhaps
> forever, and Abby Cohen was quite the spokesperson.
> But no longer. Bill Gross is rapidly becoming today what Abby Joseph
> Cohen was to the financial media in the late 1990s. Like her, he
> points to a New Normal, a fundamentally new era that supports a continued
> slide in equities (and other risky asset) prices.
> Have we come full circle, then? Do we all have a high degree of conviction
> that asset prices must drop, that the economy is fundamentally different
> this time, and have we finally settled on financial celebrity spokespeople
> who will articulate this belief on our behalf? If so, with history
> as any guide, we are wrong. Unless, of course, we are all collectively
> smarter than we were in 1999.

Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Is it possible the banks are manipulating the technicals and the zombie public is being drawn in.....as long as posible....buying new issues to cover the losses on worthless real estate debt?


On Oct 17 08:41 AM tunaman4u2 wrote:

> It always seems down days produce a higher degree of oversold than
> up days produce over bought...
>
> We're oversold just under 10K after gaining overall last week?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

"how can one stay positive about things when we owe our economic existence to the Fed Gov" Good comment Enigmaman!

I would also add we owe our economic desitution to our Federal Government(s).


On Oct 02 07:45 AM enigmaman wrote:

> Without Gov support this faux economic recovery is toast, IMF Pres.
> states the world could face a double dip but as long as Gov support
> is provided, he doesn't see it and exclaimed how happy he was to
> find the Gov of the world were not going to pull the stimulus plug
> so quickly, in other words the patient must remain in the ICU, patient
> is not strong enough to survive on its own, plugging just IV could
> kill the patient, not very reassuring and recent new, car sales and
> unemployment numbers confirms that the USA is no way out of the woods,
> how can one stay positive about things when we owe our economic existence
> to the Fed Gov

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

It is really quite simple.......... look at any chart on big charts over a 3 month or 6 month daily period.

Looking at the ups and downs....... in general as stock goes up on lower volume a direction change will occur. As a stock goes down on lower volume a direction change will occur.

If it gets really out of whack, then a bigger correction is often in store.


On Sep 29 08:12 PM Charlie J wrote:

> Art Cashin, in his daily comments today, mentioned that Jason Goepfert
> of Sundial Capital has noted that the S&amp;P and Nasdaq have risen
> for five straight months, while NYSE monthly volume has declined
> consecutively over those five months. Goepfert also says that previously
> this kind of divergence has never occurred for more than two months.
>
>
> Light volume on up days, heavy volume on down days. I wish I was
> experienced enough to really interpret this, and the above info from
> Goepfert. Maybe some veterans can comment here. All I know is, something
> doesn't feel right.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Since the government is not making any real moves to make the economy more efficient................ you count devaluing the dollar.............it may be awhile.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Shortstick,

I would agree. The government could not sell all its treasuries last time around, so they can not afford a failure. There is no backup money left!

The best they can do is lie until they can force a merger.


On Apr 23 01:27 PM Shortstick wrote:

> Good question. I'm in a Bull Spread on FAS under the assumption that
> the need to conceal the real position of many Banks will outwiegh
> the facts. That seems to be the bias.
>
> Looking for the results of the Stress Test to be as clouded as everything
> and the Polyanas to continue thier statements of Bottoms reached
> or slowing declines. Really tricky trading!

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Conan,

Just curious and you may not care. "Bank after Bank will report better than anticipated results"

Do you think the better than anticipated results will be legitimate turn around material or more smoke and mirrors? I have watched some fundamental credit analysts, raise flags about overstated asset values, but nothing about real earnings.


On Apr 09 10:32 AM Conan the Barbarian wrote:

> I rather enjoy seeing todays scramble.
>
> I'll enjoy it even more as Bank after Bank will report better than
> anticipated results and ALL of the Downtrend lines are broken on
> the SPX.
>
> I am long FAS, DXO, DAG and DYY as of Monday's close. (equal amts)
> I expect to exit them by April's end with an overall gain of at least
> 50%.
>
> Bragging, damn right, there are a few of us New Bulls who have been
> buying since early March.
>
> Hell, I'm up 10% on a closed end tax free muni, a tax free monthly
> yield of 10% annualized.
>
> Stick to your Bearish stance, when you start using daily charts maybe
> you will be able to see the Forest instead of a Few trees.
>
> IMO