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  • ...And From Mayday To Mayans [View article]
    "Will central bankers sit by as markets and economies tumble and do nothing, simply because there's nothing they can do that would help?"

    The single most important thing that central bankers can do is change the markets' negative momentum, and with it, give the real actors in the economy, a chance to also reverse the economy's weakening momentum.

    It may be due to my traders mind, but it doesn't cease to surprise me how much most economist and pundits (not saying this is your case Mike) inherently believe that the world's economies are solely a numbers' game. Far from it, economies are akin to living entities whose trials and tribulations, as well as their hopes, are reflected in the markets' movements.

    Hence, in the simplest of terms, central bankers and governments are, first and foremost, the safety net. They simply ought to act to stop the bleeding, to stop the weakening momentum, to reassure investors, to reverse the vicious cycle of bad news and bad numbers, in such a way that they bring back hope. Hope brings back investors, consumers, and trade, and this, in turn, creates a positive momentum, which is self-reinforcing and becomes a virtuous cycle.

    It is really quite simple; it all comes down to whether investors and consumers believe that the future is better or worse than today. Give them a dark horizon and they will act accordingly. Give them instead a bright horizon, and they will also act accordingly.
    Jun 3 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A "hyperbolic" sell-off is coming in Spanish debt if the ECB doesn't intervene soon, says RBS credit chief Andrew Roberts. "The Rajoy (administration) will do anything to avoid the slow agony of Greece," says the LSE's Luis Garicano, adding Spain may be tempted by Argentina, which recovered quickly after axing the dollar peg. (earlier on why Spain will exit first)  [View news story]
    I am sorry, I truly do not mean to appear insulting (I really don't mean to be, so please don't be offended), but your point of view is so radical that it sounds like the one held by a Tea Party extremist from The Appalachians who has never lived in Europe and has, most probably, not even visited it. It is only furious theory and no actual practice (I am not saying this is your case but your post certainly reads like that).

    As I said, yours are very radical views, at least in Europe. These views are not shared by the great majority of the people, including the Greek, whom, even though have suffered enormously, still want to be part of the European Union and the Euro.

    I am afraid that our views are so far apart that, I too, will agree to disagree with you. I will be happy, as well, to defend your right to voice your opinion. But, it may surprise you, this is not an issue in Europe, at all, nowadays.

    Unlike the U.S. where two political parties seem to be enough to cover 300 million people (how is that possible?), in Europe it is the norm to have many different parties that encompass millions of people who have widely different points of views. Hence, expressing your opinion, whatever it may be, is not only accepted by expected.

    Speak up, my friend. I may disagree with you, but I am happy you do!
    May 30 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A "hyperbolic" sell-off is coming in Spanish debt if the ECB doesn't intervene soon, says RBS credit chief Andrew Roberts. "The Rajoy (administration) will do anything to avoid the slow agony of Greece," says the LSE's Luis Garicano, adding Spain may be tempted by Argentina, which recovered quickly after axing the dollar peg. (earlier on why Spain will exit first)  [View news story]
    The E.U., like any institution, has many problems, no doubt. Nevertheless, it has proven to be a valuable undertaking. You are, surely, writing this radical nonsense from outside the E.U. No one who has truly experienced the E.U. would make such statements.
    May 30 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Buyers Might Get Burned [View article]
    Excellent article, IT. Very eloquently put.

    I, for one, am short treasuries and have been for quite some time. It is a trade that requires lots of patience and a cold and rational approach. As with equities, though, it isn't fun to see treasuries moving in the opposite direction even if you, rationally, know that you should be happy to be on board the one spaceship that will manage to escape from the sun's fury and not get burned.
    May 18 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims: 357K vs. 355K consensus (prior week revised to 363K from 359K). Continuing claims -16K to 3.33M.  [View news story]
    I wonder if with all the non-sense political talk that goes around here anyone has time to invest and make money.
    Apr 5 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Surrender The CAPE [View article]
    "For my part, I remain leery of both stocks and TIPS and am actively avoiding (or shorting) nominal bonds."

    Even though Paulson is now long bond, I am short bonds like you (he was wrong last year being short, and may be wrong now being long. But what do I know).

    Anyway, bonds got pummeled the last 90 minutes of trading today retracing half of the up move of the last week.
    Mar 30 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls: +227K vs. consensus of +215K, +284K (revised from 243K) in Jan. Unemployment 8.3% vs 8.3% expected. Average workweek unchanged at 34.5 hours, inline. Average hourly earnings +0.1%.  [View news story]
    True, but it is, nonetheless good news, and, at this point, not much indicates that there is a serious risk of falling back into a recession.

    More telling than the February number is the sizable revision higher to the January number, which gets closer to the sought after 300K number.
    Mar 9 08:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Be warned," tweets Josh Brown, "We're getting to that stage of the rally where my civilian non-finance friends are calling me to talk about their winners."  [View news story]
    " civilian non-finance friends..."

    Oh, please!
    No wonder most "civilian non-finance" people think finance people are arrogant, indolent imbeciles. Most have easily earned the reputation.
    Feb 28 03:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU leaders will sign off on a permanent eurozone rescue fund at a summit today and are expected to agree on a balanced budget rule. Greece will also dominate the talks, though leaders are trying to force the conversation to job creation and growth.  [View news story]
    You are absolutely right. I must confess that I don't have anything to act, other that to say that Germany's insistence on "punishing the guilty countries" first and only helping at the very last second has, indeed, deepened and exacerbated the crisis.

    I don't know if it is ignorance, arrogance or fear, or, perhaps, a combination of the three, but Germany's behavior has continued to make the crisis worse.
    Jan 30 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Exceed Expectations (Or At Least Keep Up) [View article]
    Very good article, Mike, thank you. As I stated before, I very much appreciate the time and effort it takes to provide good ideas and well written articles.
    Jan 14 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coasting On Autopilot [View article]
    It would be nice, indeed, It, but the cultural difference means attention span is measured in centuries in the UK and years in the US. The only perpetual thing one may expect in the US is a jail sentence!
    Dec 14 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coasting On Autopilot [View article]
    "The equity markets are like the cartoon character who runs off a cliff, but does not fall until he looks down."

    That is a great image.

    To be honest, I don't agree with your overall conclusion because I, perhaps very naively, still believe that more action to defend the marketplace and the EU will take place (as it always seems to happen) at the last minute.

    European politicians do wait to act until the last minute, but they will act, because they may be dumb but not suicidal. I think that Germany will eventually give in an let the ECB act decisively, and once it does, there will be no place to hide if one is short.

    We'll see, but I still like the image you presented. Very graphic.
    Dec 14 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coasting On Autopilot [View article]
    "it seems obvious that we are in an era of less volume and diminishing market liquidity. (This should by the way favor small investment managers, who have lower market-impact costs of trading…"

    I am surely missing something, IT, because, in my book, less volume and diminishing liquidity, by definition, mean higher market-impact as any trade has the potential to move the market away from the entry point more than it would otherwise move it in a market with more volume and augmenting liquidity.

    Perhaps what you meant to say is that, in an environment of less volume and diminishing market liquidity, large investment managers are harmed more than small investment managers (both are harmed but the larger ones are, indeed, harmed more, so the small ones "benefit" on a relative basis when compared to the large ones). Could this be it?
    Dec 14 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    You might be right, Richard: inevitably there are some corrupt people everywhere. But not everyone is corrupt; there are also some good, hard working people everywhere. In the end, I rather trust and verify than not trust at all.
    Dec 9 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    "Their carelessness caused the first financial crisis and now their overzealousness will cause the next."

    i have been saying the same for along time, but your is one of the best brief description I have read. I'll try to remember to give you credit if I use it!
    Dec 9 10:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment