No apology necessary. Your suggestion to buy USL instead of USO was NOT wrong. It was, and it is still the correct call. It is just that you are now looking at your advise a few weeks out, an exceedingly short time frame to come to your conclusion.
Tactically, it was the wrong short term trading advise; simple bad timing. Strategically, though, it was good investment advise.
Clearly, most people wanting to have exposure to oil would still be better off with USL, which spreads out the risk, than with USO. USO is a good short-term trading tool but a dangerous long-term investment one. The only possibility for USO to outperform in the long run would be to have long term sustainable backwardation and that is not likely to happen.
Wouldn’t you agree that, in the long run, oil contango is still the most likely scenario and, thus, USO will likely continue to suffer from this systemic drag and underperform? Stick to USL.
Explaining the Berkshire Share Price [View article]
Fortunately for Buffet you happen to be wrong. This is one of the reasons why Buffet is such a good investor and most others are not.
The options he has are European style ones so they can NOT, in fact, be exercised at any time, only at the expiry date of the option, which in most cases is decades away.
Wouldn’t you love to be the one in Buffet’s position; decades to invest the premiums, which for him is just like the beloved “float,” while the market place goes back up.
Quite a safe and smart investment, in my opinion. Wouldn’t you agree?
On Mar 08 07:14 AM paultaut wrote:
> Buffet made a Bet on the future BNI's stock price by selling the > $72 put. Stock is below $50. That was in addition to the millions > of shares bought at even higher prices. He owns about 20% of the > company. > > He made an even bigger Bet on the stockmarket in general by selling > long term puts, this put cash into his coffers to the tune of $6 > Billion, I believe. > > Given that the leverage is 10 to 1, if the stockmarket goes down > as much as much as some predict, he will have to come up with a big > part of $60 Billion to cover. > > The last I heard, his position is already $10 Billion underwater > based on the price of the Puts sold. > > BRK.A has Billions in cash and apparently can't find companies to > invest in, yet Buffet sold Billions worth of puts. Since Options > can be exercised at any time, BRK.A has the Potential of suffering > big time from this one act, at any time. > > This isn't the first time he has strayed. He invested Billions in > the Futures markets Betting on the USD's decline a few years back. > After Losing Billions he covered. > > As far as I'm concerned, those stockmarket Puts are a timebomb waiting > to explode. IMHO
Will China Continue to Buy U.S. Debt? [View article]
Agreed, but there is a difference between understanding the political context in which the markets develop and bringing your own political views, which are totally irrelevant to the market, and hence, useless to the reader.
Unless the author is a investor and political heavyweight, say Soros, who can influence markets with reasoned views, such political opinions are worthless.
On Feb 26 01:53 PM PainfullyAware wrote:
> Those who do not include "Politics" in their understanding of markets > will not understand the nuances that drive the heard.
Will China Continue to Buy U.S. Debt? [View article]
Your angry outburst clearly demonstrate that your language, as your thinking, are indeed plain.
Evidently you do care what I think, otherwise you would not have written the rant.
Oh, but wait, I forgot: “nobody cares” …so you are nobody!
On Feb 26 12:05 PM boats.j wrote:
> Oh really? The thought police are here!!!!!! There is this little > tiny thing called 1st Amendment. I know you corporate/financial types > don't care about the 1st Amendment except when you try to apply it > to juristic persons having the right to speech. > > In plain language: nobody cares what you think!
Will China Continue to Buy U.S. Debt? [View article]
Mr. Liebcap, your political positions are of no interest to the reader. Seeking Alpha is a trading and investing forum and not the forum for political venting.
5 Indicators the Economy Is Recovering [View article]
This is not the forum for these types of comments!
On Feb 25 08:53 AM ecliptix543 wrote:
> Either way it goes, I've got a plan! For every 100 shares I buy while > fishing for the bottom, I also buy 100 rounds of ammo in case it > all goes down the toilet. One of the two will prove to be the smart > investment... I'm already seeing +200% paper returns on the ammo, > by the way...
USL, USO and the Contango Collapse [View article]
No apology necessary. Your suggestion to buy USL instead of USO was NOT wrong. It was, and it is still the correct call. It is just that you are now looking at your advise a few weeks out, an exceedingly short time frame to come to your conclusion.
Tactically, it was the wrong short term trading advise; simple bad timing. Strategically, though, it was good investment advise.
Clearly, most people wanting to have exposure to oil would still be better off with USL, which spreads out the risk, than with USO. USO is a good short-term trading tool but a dangerous long-term investment one. The only possibility for USO to outperform in the long run would be to have long term sustainable backwardation and that is not likely to happen.
Wouldn’t you agree that, in the long run, oil contango is still the most likely scenario and, thus, USO will likely continue to suffer from this systemic drag and underperform? Stick to USL.
Explaining the Berkshire Share Price [View article]
The options he has are European style ones so they can NOT, in fact, be exercised at any time, only at the expiry date of the option, which in most cases is decades away.
Wouldn’t you love to be the one in Buffet’s position; decades to invest the premiums, which for him is just like the beloved “float,” while the market place goes back up.
Quite a safe and smart investment, in my opinion. Wouldn’t you agree?
On Mar 08 07:14 AM paultaut wrote:
> Buffet made a Bet on the future BNI's stock price by selling the
> $72 put. Stock is below $50. That was in addition to the millions
> of shares bought at even higher prices. He owns about 20% of the
> company.
>
> He made an even bigger Bet on the stockmarket in general by selling
> long term puts, this put cash into his coffers to the tune of $6
> Billion, I believe.
>
> Given that the leverage is 10 to 1, if the stockmarket goes down
> as much as much as some predict, he will have to come up with a big
> part of $60 Billion to cover.
>
> The last I heard, his position is already $10 Billion underwater
> based on the price of the Puts sold.
>
> BRK.A has Billions in cash and apparently can't find companies to
> invest in, yet Buffet sold Billions worth of puts. Since Options
> can be exercised at any time, BRK.A has the Potential of suffering
> big time from this one act, at any time.
>
> This isn't the first time he has strayed. He invested Billions in
> the Futures markets Betting on the USD's decline a few years back.
> After Losing Billions he covered.
>
> As far as I'm concerned, those stockmarket Puts are a timebomb waiting
> to explode. IMHO
Will China Continue to Buy U.S. Debt? [View article]
Unless the author is a investor and political heavyweight, say Soros, who can influence markets with reasoned views, such political opinions are worthless.
On Feb 26 01:53 PM PainfullyAware wrote:
> Those who do not include "Politics" in their understanding of markets
> will not understand the nuances that drive the heard.
Will China Continue to Buy U.S. Debt? [View article]
Evidently you do care what I think, otherwise you would not have written the rant.
Oh, but wait, I forgot: “nobody cares” …so you are nobody!
On Feb 26 12:05 PM boats.j wrote:
> Oh really? The thought police are here!!!!!! There is this little
> tiny thing called 1st Amendment. I know you corporate/financial types
> don't care about the 1st Amendment except when you try to apply it
> to juristic persons having the right to speech.
>
> In plain language: nobody cares what you think!
Will China Continue to Buy U.S. Debt? [View article]
5 Indicators the Economy Is Recovering [View article]
On Feb 25 08:53 AM ecliptix543 wrote:
> Either way it goes, I've got a plan! For every 100 shares I buy while
> fishing for the bottom, I also buy 100 rounds of ammo in case it
> all goes down the toilet. One of the two will prove to be the smart
> investment... I'm already seeing +200% paper returns on the ammo,
> by the way...