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Abraxas

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  • Dissecting The Herbalife Trade: Did Spite Motivate Icahn's 13% Stake? [View article]
    Oh, please, do not advice individual retail investors to sell short term Calls on HLF to gain a paltry 8% and take on an enormous risk, which could easily wipe out their entire wealth!

    With all due respect, that is beyond irresponsible.

    Do you know what would happen to their position if there is another up leg like last Friday's?

    March calls could sky rocket to levels you don't want to imagine losing the seller several times his original investment. This may happen or it may not, but they would be taking an astronomical and unnecessary risk... that's just a bad call (pun intended).
    Feb 19 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting The Herbalife Trade: Did Spite Motivate Icahn's 13% Stake? [View article]
    Because you can make a monumental amount of money without much effort. Do not invest in HLF, by all means, but do take advantage of the "war" and trade in it.
    Feb 18 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dissecting The Herbalife Trade: Did Spite Motivate Icahn's 13% Stake? [View article]
    Crazy, why is that? It would be crazy to miss out on the great opportunity this fight is providing. All you have to do is pick a winner and trade accordingly. I, for various reasons, but mostly because I believe that the 35 year old Herbalife business is legitimate, went with Icahn (good or bad business is not the issue, but rather, whether is real and would survive scrutiny).

    So I bought leap year calls, just like Icahn, but chose a higher price where I can get substantially more return with an increased volatility, which I expect due to the fight.

    My 01/17/2015 50 calls just went up 120% on Friday, and my 01/18/2014 70 calls went up 315%.

    This is only one day's profit, but I am not closing the positions here as the short squeeze has just started. Just wait until Ackman and the shorts are actually forced to start closing their positions if Icahn and the longs start buying up the shares directly (which he will do as soon as allowed by the SEC). If Ackman doubles up on it he risks blowing up.

    Sometimes, although not often, this is just too easy.

    I usually don't write here about specific trades, but I did write about the Herbalife tussle and how I intended to profit from it with long leap year calls without having to take a large risk. It is paying off handsomely.
    Feb 18 04:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The SEC files suit against Swiss traders in Heinz (HNZ) call options and obtains an emergency order to freeze the assets in an account linked to the trading. The lawsuits cite "highly suspicious trading" just prior to the Feb. 14 news of the acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) and 3G Capital. (earlier[View news story]
    The SEC is still behind the curve. the only reason they actually found out about the trades is that Zero Hedge published a post detailing them and the irregular pattern.
    Feb 15 08:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife (HLF) up 23% premarket following in Carl Icahn's Valentine's Day Massacre of Bill Ackman. Kid Dynamite notes Icahn has an economic interest in 13% of HLF, but does not own all that stock. Instead he has a combination of long stock, long calls and short puts. His exit strategy for the position is in question, but it's clear Icahn's goal is to create a short squeeze. Grab the popcorn. [View news story]
    Hopefully you cashed in!

    ...I have to do the same...
    Feb 15 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife (HLF) up 23% premarket following in Carl Icahn's Valentine's Day Massacre of Bill Ackman. Kid Dynamite notes Icahn has an economic interest in 13% of HLF, but does not own all that stock. Instead he has a combination of long stock, long calls and short puts. His exit strategy for the position is in question, but it's clear Icahn's goal is to create a short squeeze. Grab the popcorn. [View news story]
    My 01/17/2015 50 calls just went up 120% today, and my 01/18/2014 70 calls are up 315%.

    This is only one day's profit, but I am not closing the positions here as the short squeeze has just started. Just wait until Ackman and the shorts are actually forced to start closing their positions. If he doubles up on it he risks blowing up.

    Sometimes, although not often, this is just too easy.

    I usually don't write here about specific trades, but I did write about the Herbalife tussle and how I intended to profit from it with long leap year calls without having to take a large risk. It is paying off handsomely.
    Feb 15 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Limits On The 500-Pound Gorilla [View article]
    Very interesting post and a very illuminating exchange of comments. Thanks.
    Feb 11 05:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour: Dow -0.31%. 10-yr +0.02%. Euro -0.71% vs. dollar. Crude +0.22% to $96.83. Gold -0.63% to $1668.25. [View news story]
    So, you must be very short the market and not worried at all. Right?
    Feb 7 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • European stocks close sharply lower as a corruption scandal threatens to engulf the Spanish PM and Berlusconi surges ahead of elections in Italy. The Stoxx 50 -3.1%, led by Italy -4.4%, and Spain -3.7%. Germany -2.4%. So much for hot Januarys. The now-weeklong slide in Europe has brought the Stoxx 50 back to about flat YTD. [View news story]
    11.000? You will be waiting for ever.

    Look, you can't wait for the perfect entry. If you do, you will miss the market.
    Feb 4 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Growing To The Sky - Nor Ready To Fall, Yet [View article]
    You are most probably right, but I am still short bonds. I confess, so far, I have been short too early without the market moving much in my favor (mostly due to the FED's continued support). I am not sure when the market will turn for good but I am afraid that it will do so without much warning, and I don't want to miss it or chase it when it does.

    So, I guess I will continue to patiently wait, withstand the swings, keep on building the position, and pounce hard when it does turn. In the long run I think that being short will prove a great hedge.
    Jan 29 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • President Obama is likely to approve a GOP proposal to suspend the debt ceiling until May 19, which has the backing of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid as well. The House is due to vote on the measure today, with the bill also requiring both chambers to pass budgets by April 15; if they don't members' salaries would be withheld. [View news story]
    My thoughts exactly!

    So many people here are so invested in 'being right' that they forget to be invested in making money.
    Jan 23 10:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Under-Appreciated GDP Facts [View article]
    I was in Iceland last year and his president explained how the country recovered so quickly from the recession:

    "The government bailed out the people and imprisoned the banksters. The opposite of what the US and the rest of Europe did."
    Nov 30 01:12 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If it's a fat finger, it's not immediately being lifted. So far, gold hasn't bounced a dime from a quick $20 sell-off an hour ago. Chatter says the move was due to a contract rollover that accidentally became an outright sell. Silver has moved in concert, SLV -2.1% premarket. Oil and copper, both lower by more than 1%, complete the picture for key commodities. [View news story]
    In about a month we'll see whether it is resolved or not.

    "Did any of ya fools ever..."

    Of course not, we are all clueless, unlike you we have no money in the market, and come here to get a bit of your infinitum wisdom. Thanks.
    Nov 28 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If it's a fat finger, it's not immediately being lifted. So far, gold hasn't bounced a dime from a quick $20 sell-off an hour ago. Chatter says the move was due to a contract rollover that accidentally became an outright sell. Silver has moved in concert, SLV -2.1% premarket. Oil and copper, both lower by more than 1%, complete the picture for key commodities. [View news story]
    Gold hasn't bounced back, which, in all likelihood means that the buying of puts wasn't a mistake, but rather, an intentional hedge or straight out position trade.

    It makes sense, as gold could easily go lower from these levels, especially if the fiscal cliff is resolved and the markets move up.
    Nov 28 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    "Apple is the new Nokia, its shares will contiune fall for like 10-12 years.

    Apple is still in the denial phase, not sure they have understood theire own problem."

    These seem to be the types of comments made by someone who has absolutely no money invested in the marketplace but plenty of time to post nonsensical opinions without any factual support.

    I guess that's how one gets to 726 posts.
    Nov 27 04:46 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
234 Comments
353 Likes