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  • Get Ready For An Electric Week [View article]
    Very good and balanced post, Kevin. Thank you.
    Jul 25, 2013. 07:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Healing Power Of Quarter-End [View article]
    Did you see the massive equity sell-off into the close today? After the various Fed speakers and POMO induced market ramp-ups during the day, on no volume whatsoever, window dressing and all, huge selling volume shows the true colors of the institutions at the close.

    And who ends up holding the bag? Retail investors, naturally.
    Jun 28, 2013. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Healing Power Of Quarter-End [View article]
    I often feel bad for the average retail investor who, invariably, ends up holding the bag when the music stops. Government officials, investment advisors, financial news outlets and pundits have no problem massaging and distorting the facts to create the 'right' news to fit their interests and the prevailing narrative, even if that means making 180 degree turns and contradicting themselves on a daily basis. What is a poor retail investor to do but to trust their judgement and invest accordingly?

    Witness these week's numbers and how they were presented to the general public. First, a couple of days ago, we get four good numbers which, naturally, are portrayed as positive for the markets because, well "good news is good news", after all. That makes sense, and retail investors happily jump in. Markets go up. Next day GDP figures suffer a tremendous set back when they are revised down from 2.4 to 1.8. Now, the various agents portrait the bad news as positive because this should prevent the Fed from any early tapering. So this time, only 24 hours later, "bad news are good news", and retail investors are happy to oblige, once more, and jump in again.

    In the mean time PIMCO's Gross repeatedly comes out in interviews to tell investors not to "overreact" by selling bonds. Naturally, he and the journalist interviewing him, neglect to say that his flagship fund is long bonds and almost down 4% for the month and that he needs time and liquidity to get out, so investors would be well advised to remember that their interests and his don't match well up this time around and that, should they, in fact, heed his advise, they are likely to bail him out and be left holding the bag.

    Who is truly looking after the retail investor? With those agents, journalists, and advisors who needs enemies!

    Which bring us back to where we started. As I said, I often feel bad for the average retail investor who, invariably, ends up holding the bag when the music stops.
    Jun 28, 2013. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "We're in a highly levered economy where households can't afford to pay much more interest," writes Bill Gross, noting monthly payments on a 30-year mortgage have jumped 20-25% since January and mortgage applications have plummeted 39% in 2 months. He's not buying Bernanke's tough talk given the reality of our economy and the chairman's "helicopter" reputation. "Investors selling Treasurys (TLT, TBT) in anticipation the Fed will ease out of the market might be disappointed." [View news story]
    "Investors selling Treasurys (TLT, TBT) in anticipation the Fed will ease out of the market might be disappointed."

    What Gross really means is "our position is enormous, please don't sell Treasuries before we sell them, otherwise we, not you as intended, will end up losing lots of money!"
    Jun 25, 2013. 07:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds And The 'Convexity' Trade [View article]
    Very nice, Mike, thanks. You really do have a gift for properly explaining complicated issues.
    May 30, 2013. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Comparisons [View article]
    Rationality and objectivity are not paying good dividends right now with equity markets slowly but surely trending higher and bond markets maintained artificially by the relentless FED stimulus.

    What is the right course to take? Accept without objection the current state of affairs and go full-boat long (many most be doing this as the equity markets keep on going higher), or sell equities on the way up, increase one's hedge, and short bonds? I have taken the latter, as I believe that disciplined trading will eventually pay off.

    Nevertheless, I accept that it requires a good dose of self restrain and confidence. That acceptance may make the difference between short term satisfaction and long term profitability.
    May 7, 2013. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is Not Going To Zero [View article]
    Good lord, Matt, are you so deep into shorting HLF that you are losing it? If not, why do keep on writing these kind of comments?

    There is a large difference between writing a negative article about Herbalife claiming objectivity, which you have already done before, and going off the rails with these type of comments.

    If you want to write on this site and reach a serious audience, you better reign your own biases and prejudices. Otherwise you turn yourself into a mockery of an analyst and commentator and lose all credibility.
    Mar 22, 2013. 05:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, Stealing Really Is That Bad [View article]
    I never met a gold bug who didn't like gold 'down here or up there.'
    Mar 19, 2013. 04:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willie Suttonomics [View article]
    Once again, Germany and the IMF are behind this latest "no good deed will go unpunished scheme." They could easily fix the problem by simply using the European Stability Fund and by decoupling the banking debt from the country. Let the banks go bankrupt and have the creditors and shareholders pay the price but save the saving accounts.

    The real reason Germany is attempting this utterly insane money grab, is that the banking systems is about 800% of Cyprus' GDP with the majority of the large money coming from foreigners, particularly, Russians.

    The Germans would love to be able to only 'tax' the foreign accounts (only Russians go be better yet) but, naturally, that would be a step too far and too transparent, and would provoke (more) anger from Russia. So, they have to contend with pretending that they are going after everyone.

    Such a move in a country that barely represents 0.2% of European GDP is, to say the least, reckless, as a bank run is the rational response. Let's risk the entire's continent stability, once again, to have the Germans teach everyone a moral lesson!
    Mar 18, 2013. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willie Suttonomics [View article]
    Zerohedhe is the equivalent to walking around with a highly depressed and negative, yet somewhat realist and pragmatic friend. Great for avoiding market pitfalls.

    Zerohedge is the perfect bear market, risk management or 'hedge' site but is the worst bull market one, as it never, ever, takes a positive outlook on anything.

    Nevertheless, if you accept that simple fact, Zerohedge will prove very useful by keeping your trading spirits in check and making sure you see all potential dangers ahead.
    Mar 18, 2013. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refiners are hit in reaction to a WSJ story calling attention to the squeeze they face from the rising costs of complying with a federal mandate to use corn ethanol in fuel. An EPA proposal, which could be made final as soon as next month, could force refiners and fuel importers to use more than 14B gallons of ethanol, up from 13.3B in 2012. VLO -4%, MPC -1.7%, TSO -2.5%, HFC -2.7%, WNR -3%, PSX -1.4%[View news story]
    Most of the ethanol that is produced outside the US comes from sugar cane, not from corn. Brazil is, by far the world's largest producer and it does so from sugar cane. Ethanol produced from sugar cane is noted for high carbon sequestration and reduced tailpipe emissions considerable. Ethanol is not perfect, but it is a step in the right direction.
    Mar 11, 2013. 07:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Refiners are hit in reaction to a WSJ story calling attention to the squeeze they face from the rising costs of complying with a federal mandate to use corn ethanol in fuel. An EPA proposal, which could be made final as soon as next month, could force refiners and fuel importers to use more than 14B gallons of ethanol, up from 13.3B in 2012. VLO -4%, MPC -1.7%, TSO -2.5%, HFC -2.7%, WNR -3%, PSX -1.4%[View news story]
    Use natural gas too, by all means, which is also already used in vehicles in many countries including, once again, Brazil. The problem with letting political views get in the way of intelligent policies is the loss of objectivity. Most people are held hostage to political views and think that if they are pro something they ought to be against something else.

    There is no reason why all clean technologies can't be developed and used properly at the same time. The cost of solar energy has dropped by 80% recently to the point that it is already competitive in in the earth's sun belt and in California. Wind power is almost competitive compared to coal in Europe and getting close in the east coast, etc, etc. There are already millions of gas, ethanol, hybrid powered and even fully electric cars around the world. You get the point.

    The name of the game is natural gas, plus ethanol, plus win energy, plus solar, plus hybrid and electric cars, etc. None of these technologies is perfect and none is the solution alone. But all of them are getting better and cheaper and, in all likelihood, they will all be part of the final solution.

    PS: My life is very good and very enjoyable. Thanks for the tip, anyway.
    Mar 11, 2013. 07:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Refiners are hit in reaction to a WSJ story calling attention to the squeeze they face from the rising costs of complying with a federal mandate to use corn ethanol in fuel. An EPA proposal, which could be made final as soon as next month, could force refiners and fuel importers to use more than 14B gallons of ethanol, up from 13.3B in 2012. VLO -4%, MPC -1.7%, TSO -2.5%, HFC -2.7%, WNR -3%, PSX -1.4%[View news story]
    Oh, some of you need to get a grip, stop looking inward, and look to other places for examples of success.

    There many countries that already use ethanol successfully. In Brazil, for instance, many cars use 100% ethanol. Not, 13%,14%,15%, but 100%.
    Mar 11, 2013. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence is growing an iPhone 5S (AAPL +0.4%) will arrive around mid-year. Mizuho says checks indicate an iPhone refresh in June or July, and that March quarter iPhone shipments will fall to the 35M-40M range (in-line with consensus). Wedge Partners: "We understand Foxconn is currently prepping production lines for ... iPhone 5S production, which we believe is scheduled to begin in the April timeframe." The firm thinks the 5S will be unveiled at the WWDC conference (typically in June), with sales likely starting in July. MacOtakara recently reported Foxconn has begun 5S production. [View news story]
    "Doug Kass says Apple remains fine for trading and that he recently made a little money on it. Kass made the bear case in September, so his words here carry weight.

    His earnings estimates are still below consensus, yet he's predicting nearly $42a share in 2013 earnings, implying a forward price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of just 10.1. And his bearish case sees earnings growing 10 percent per year. I think Kass sees Apple as fairly valued.

    Intel currently carries a PE of 10.1. Analyst estimates for its earnings this year, according to Yahoo Finance, are $1.94/share, and for next year $2.10. Which would you rather own?"
    Mar 9, 2013. 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence is growing an iPhone 5S (AAPL +0.4%) will arrive around mid-year. Mizuho says checks indicate an iPhone refresh in June or July, and that March quarter iPhone shipments will fall to the 35M-40M range (in-line with consensus). Wedge Partners: "We understand Foxconn is currently prepping production lines for ... iPhone 5S production, which we believe is scheduled to begin in the April timeframe." The firm thinks the 5S will be unveiled at the WWDC conference (typically in June), with sales likely starting in July. MacOtakara recently reported Foxconn has begun 5S production. [View news story]
    Please go ahead and short Apple at these levels. I don't think anyone would stop you. let us know how it goes for you.
    Mar 9, 2013. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
300 Comments
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