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Abraxas

Abraxas
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  • Evidence is growing an iPhone 5S (AAPL +0.4%) will arrive around mid-year. Mizuho says checks indicate an iPhone refresh in June or July, and that March quarter iPhone shipments will fall to the 35M-40M range (in-line with consensus). Wedge Partners: "We understand Foxconn is currently prepping production lines for ... iPhone 5S production, which we believe is scheduled to begin in the April timeframe." The firm thinks the 5S will be unveiled at the WWDC conference (typically in June), with sales likely starting in July. MacOtakara recently reported Foxconn has begun 5S production. [View news story]
    Microsoft should have done that 20 years ago. And yes, they badly need it because Windows remains extremely vulnerable.

    Everyone takes security issues seriously. That includes Apple, but Apple products are simply less vulnerable. Not invincible by any means, but much less vulnerable.
    Mar 9, 2013. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evidence is growing an iPhone 5S (AAPL +0.4%) will arrive around mid-year. Mizuho says checks indicate an iPhone refresh in June or July, and that March quarter iPhone shipments will fall to the 35M-40M range (in-line with consensus). Wedge Partners: "We understand Foxconn is currently prepping production lines for ... iPhone 5S production, which we believe is scheduled to begin in the April timeframe." The firm thinks the 5S will be unveiled at the WWDC conference (typically in June), with sales likely starting in July. MacOtakara recently reported Foxconn has begun 5S production. [View news story]
    Not to worry, you are only crazy for marrying a Finance Accountant!
    Mar 8, 2013. 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google (GOOG +0.5%) has passed Apple (AAPL +0.3%) as the biggest holding among the top 50 actively-managed U.S. mutual funds, according to a Citi report. Google is also now the top holding among hedge funds - a slew of major hedge funds either pared back or fully unwound their Apple positions in Q4. After backing out net cash/investments, Google now trades at 15.5x 2013E EPS, and Apple at just 6.3x FY13E EPS. [View news story]
    Herd trading. Profit from it!

    Yesterday I closed most of my 2015 Leap $850 GOOG calls with a profit of over 250%. Thank you for running Google up in such a short time.

    Google may very well continue to go up, but at current levels Apple presents a unique opportunity. Again, the easy, inexpensive and safe play is buying $700-850 2015 Leap calls. When the stock bounces, and trust me, it will, you will make a killing without taking much risk.
    Mar 7, 2013. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leonard Melman: Are You Prepared For Hyperinflation? [View article]
    There are too many intangibles that may break or influence the correlation between gold and inflation, which makes the premise of buying gold perilous. There is a much more direct, safe and sure way to profit in the financial markets if there is inflation: shorting bonds. That's what professional investors would do first and foremost (whether they take a gold position or not).

    An easy and simple way to short bonds for an individual investor would be through shorting bond ETFs or, better yet, buying reverse ETFs such as TBT, which are already inherently short (so the investor can buy them long and have a short exposure).

    (TBT is leverage 2 to 1).
    Mar 7, 2013. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regression To Trend: A Perspective On Long-Term Market Performance [View article]
    I must agree. I appreciate the work done, but unless one plans to buy and hold in 25 to 50 year periods, the period chosen for the analysis is so long and the variables so broad that the exercise, from a real-world investment perspective, is really useless.

    Use a different starting point, say after the 1929 crisis, after the end of World War II, or after the 1970 oil crisis and the trend line becomes much steeper, drawing the peaks much closer to it and pushing the dips much farther away.

    The bottom line is that this is nice historical chart with almost no meaningful or real actionable trading value.
    Mar 7, 2013. 07:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The DJIA is up 0.6% in early trade to 14,211, surpassing the October 11, 2007 intraday all-time high of 14,198. The record closing high is 14,164. [View news story]
    Investors who have money in the market who, by the way, are usually the kind of people you find around this site, are making money. Isn't that something to celebrate?
    Mar 5, 2013. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is An Endless Chain [View article]
    While many here keep on arguing minutiae and irrelevant legalese, they take their eye of what really matters if they really want to make money: The market and the underlaying war.

    HLF is up, again 2.7% consolidating and adding pressure to the shorts. Even more importantly at this particular point, due to a possible secondary offering, JCP collapsed, yet again, 10.6% today, losing Ackman another $100 million.

    Think about this: JCP is down a whooping 32% in the last 7 trading days and is about to reach 10 year lows. Ackman has 1 billion invested in it and is losing hundreds of millions on it. He needs that position as collateral for his HLF short.

    Why would JCP be thinking about a secondary offering, unless it really needs the money? One thing is for sure; Ackman can't provide that money. The plot thickens.
    Mar 4, 2013. 05:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is An Endless Chain [View article]
    Ghosts,

    If you truly believe that HLF is a pyramid scheme and that the authorities (whichever) will act forcefully within the next six months then, by all means, wait and then short the stock.

    If they don't act right away, one can still make a handsome profit long.

    I don't really know why you think that a 'direct' short is better, as that exposes you to having the lenders recall your borrow stock, and also, to a short squeeze. Using options is safer and cheaper as you cap your downside risk.

    In my opinion, for whatever is worth, the company is not an ILLEGAL pyramid scheme, so I don't really see the authorities acting. Even if they were to take a look in the US, I understand that the majority of HLF's revenue comes from outside the US.

    So, we have a different opinion about HLF and, most importantly, about how things may develop in the short term, and this is the beauty of investing: the market will reward whomever gets it right.

    Nevertheless, timing is also crucial.

    As I wrote before, even if Ackman is right, it won't help most shorts much unless the authorities act quickly. I don't see that happening and I intend to profit from it, in the mean time.
    Mar 2, 2013. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is An Endless Chain [View article]
    The FTC has had 32 years to act and is not going to do anything at this point just because Ackman asks them to. That's the reality, IMHO.
    Mar 2, 2013. 07:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is An Endless Chain [View article]
    Sorry Matt, what do you mean by my thesis? I am surely missing your point.

    I don't know what you understood by my thesis, but my hypothesis is simple: The authorities are unlikely to act and without them acting, and quickly, the stock will go up and most shorts (maybe not Ackman) will be squeezed.

    I did not own HLF in the past and, most probably, will not own it in the future. In the short term, though, I fully intend to see the reality as objectively as possible, discern from it a way to trade intelligently and profit from it. That is what an investor is supposed to do. That is, simply, it!

    What about you, Matt?

    BTW, under the current circumstances a discussion of HLF's P/E is completely meaningless. It doesn't matter, at all.
    Mar 1, 2013. 05:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is An Endless Chain [View article]
    Here is a bit of unrequested advise, if I may. Assume you are right in your short term and long term assumptions and act accordingly. Buy Leap calls and ride the short squeeze. Wait for the pause and then flip to Leap puts, but not before the short squeeze. Do not waste your money on Leap puts right now, as it goes against your own assumptions of what is likely to happen in the short to mid term.
    Mar 1, 2013. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Is An Endless Chain [View article]
    Interesting post. Thanks.

    "Longs who ignore this do so at their own risk -- including Mr. Icahn."

    I am one of those longs who has bought plenty of Leap year calls and, as it is the case with every investment I make, I do so at my own risk (fortunately, I am already up well over 200%).

    Whether you and Mr. Ackman are right, it remains to be seen, but it is disingenuous to short the stock and then ask the authorities to close down the business. I am all for shorting but if it is the common good that is sought, perhaps one should choose between quietly shorting and asking the FTC and the SEC to act on your behalf.

    You claim that the "pyramid scheme" will put the distributors in danger. Your remedy is for the authorities to intervene and close down the business. Oh, the irony! What good would do those 3 million distributors if the business is closed down?

    In the mean time, without the FTC and SEC help, I am afraid you and Mr. Ackman may not have time to prove your point. Ackman is now down $280 million on his JCP investment, and Icahn has the right to appoint two directors to the HLF board and can increase his 14% HLF stock to 25%. He can exercise his calls which, in all likelihood would make the stock lenders recall the stock borrowed by the short sellers forcing them to close their position by buying in the open market and making the price go up.

    The bottom line is that unless the authorities follow your advise and intervene, which is highly unlikely, Icahn and the longs have the upper hand and Ackman and the shorts will face monumental pressure. My money is, literally, on most shorts giving up first. We'll see.
    Mar 1, 2013. 05:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn Enterprises (IEP -12.5%) prices its secondary at $63/unit, giving Icahn another $200M with which to battle Bill Ackman on Herbalife (HLF +3%). (PR[View news story]
    Icahn has also received permission to raise his HLF position to 25%, basically doubling his current one (if he does).
    Mar 1, 2013. 03:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Icahn Enterprises (IEP -12.5%) prices its secondary at $63/unit, giving Icahn another $200M with which to battle Bill Ackman on Herbalife (HLF +3%). (PR[View news story]
    I don't think what Icahn is doing is simply a vendetta with Ackman (but I am not on a first name basis with them, unlike you). Regardless, why exactly would you be unhappy? He is already up on his trades and seems very well positioned to make lots of money on HLF. isn't that what he is suppose to do?
    Mar 1, 2013. 12:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife (HLF +3.7%) is halted on news it's expanded its board with two Icahn reps nominated to fill the slots. (PR[View news story]
    HLF is up 7% today and 17% in the last three days. Icahn is starting to tighten the noose and Ackman is starting to run out of time. Even if Ackman decides to stay put, other shorts are bound to blink and close their positions adding to the upside pressure.

    Add to Ackman's growing problem a $180 million loss in JCP today and you'll start to paint a bleak picture. Not a good day for him, at all.
    Feb 28, 2013. 03:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
300 Comments
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