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Abraxas

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  • Apple: Reality Bites, So Time To Sell [View article]
    Less than 10 months later and AAPL is already almost 50% higher and it seems ready to crack $700 again.

    As I wrote in my original post: "the timing of your advise to sell Apple is horrendous."
    Jun 5 04:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Competition Threatens Apple In 2014 [View article]
    "Apple loses money on everything except iPhones."

    You didn't just write that. Did you? Yes you did. Oh well, after that, forget about taking your post seriously.
    Oct 31 07:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Continues To Innovate [View article]
    Nice ideas. Apple is traditionally much more focused on its own ideas and designs but there is, certainly, no reason which prevents it from tapping outside resources and innovation.

    As for Apple manufacturing in the US and all the rest, remember that there are over 7 billion people in the world and only a bit over 300 million live in the US. For someone who is clearly able to think large in terms of innovation and business possibilities, your US centric view for Apple doesn't make much sense. The world is simply too large for that. Apple can only be the best if it thinks as a global company.
    Sep 21 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $700: Don't Get Burned Again [View article]
    One last point: While the overall markets are in a clear downtrend, AAPL is about to break its year high, which means that all 2013 shorts are surely squeezed and all 2013 longs are profitable. All of them. We are back to "sell the market and buy AAPL". Wether one believes this to be right or wrong, it is surely not smart to get in front of a speeding train.

    As I said, the timing of the advise is wrong.
    Aug 19 10:03 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $700: Don't Get Burned Again [View article]
    From a technology point of view the author is probably right. From a trading and investing point of view the author is probably wrong. At least, temporarily wrong. The timing of the advise is wrong.

    I believe it is a mistake to sell Apple at this moment as the market has, certainly, already priced in the technological liabilities the author refers to (they are well known, and if they are well known, they are already priced in), and Apple is about to unveil its new products.

    It sounds obvious to me, but you don't sell right before the new product cycle is about to begin. You don't sell, unless, that is, you are absolutely convinced that the new products will be a complete fiasco. That, however, if highly unlikely. It is Apple we are talking about.

    Further, large Hedge Funds and institutional investors are coming back into the stock providing support and upward pressure to the stock.

    I believe that Apple will prove to be, once again, a great investment. But even if you have doubts, the intelligent trade is, in my opinion, to buy Apple now, wait until it unveils its new products and make a decision then.

    Don't sell right now. It is the wrong time to do so.
    Aug 19 09:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reality Bites, So Time To Sell [View article]
    Tomas,

    My posts were polite and was given you the benefit of the doubt. I can clearly see, by your completely arrogant and foolish response, that I was mistaken and you didn't deserve my patience or kindness. Being impolite, aggressive and showing lack of respect only serves to show your true self and diminish any validity that your message may have.

    You wrote:

    "I have the feeling I have been doing this longer than you have and have made tons of money off of people who believe in the EMH."

    "So you think the market is efficient."

    "Finally if you are not looking for doubles then you are either a believer in EMH or you are lazy."

    "invest all your money in index funds and quit talking about stocks or read the book Predictably Irrational for another view on how our minds work."

    Just a couple of points before I waste anymore of my time with you:

    1) Please see my profile. You will see that, perhaps, I don't need your advise and condescending tone when it comes to trading and investing. It is sad that I have to resort to telling you. You should be respectful towards others, regardless of who you think the other person is. Unfortunately, you haven't been. That speaks very badly about you.

    2) Please learn to read or pay more attention. The bulk of your post is wasted because you failed to properly read my brief post. So, I will only repeat the following: I don't believe that the markets are efficient. Far from it. I just don't believe they are as inefficient as you seem to believe. Please see my previous post where I wrote: "The market is far from efficient, I accept, but it is not that inefficient".

    3) I have already doubled my investment in Apple. In fact I have already triple it in less than a month. But, as I also stated before, it is done through options, not equity. I have no problem sharing the information, so you can verify it:

    Bought AAPL, 17 of January 2015, $850 calls, between July the 19th and the 22nd at $2.05. The calls are currently trading at $5.95.

    I do not intend to close my position any time soon. If Apple goes back anywhere close to its high, the calls will be worth north of $50. You do the math on the profit and tell me if I know what I am doing or if I need your advise.

    Maybe you should tell us where and when you have shorted Apple, so we know that you are not what you accuse others of being: just a lot of hot air and no real money in the game.

    BTW, I will be happy to accept your apology and, perhaps, we can start again on better, more respectful terms. As you wrote before: Your move.
    Aug 15 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reality Bites, So Time To Sell [View article]
    With all due respect, again, unless you are talking about penny stocks, no serious investor buys a stock hoping to double its investment. The market is far from efficient, I accept, but it is not that inefficient and I, politely, doubt that you have information, which is unknown to the rest of the investment community.

    The only reasonable way to expect to double, triple or quadruple, your investment it through options (for instance, I just closed HLF with a 1.700% profit in a few months).

    So, please, stop the talk about looking for doubles. It doesn't help the unsuspecting retail investor.
    Aug 14 09:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reality Bites, So Time To Sell [View article]
    "Hoping for a 20% gain is boring. Tell me Apple is going to double and why is interesting."

    Perhaps you are taking yourself a bit too seriously? Or, perhaps, you are hurting and this is just a way to lash out? If it is the latter,I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for making a twitter-like mistake in the heat of the moment. Otherwise, you probably know that those kinds of comments are not made by serious investors or traders.
    Aug 14 03:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reality Bites, So Time To Sell [View article]
    With all due respect, John, the timing of your advise to sell Apple is horrendous. It is fine to have doubts, but you have waited through the most difficult quarters and are giving up right before Apple comes up with the goods.

    briefly, these are some of the reasons your selling advise is poorly timed:

    Apple is likely to announce its new products in September, which means that unless you expect a total flop in terms of innovation from Apple (possible, but highly unlikely), the stock is bound to move up from here.

    Secondly, Apple is likely to continue pushing its buyback program. any announcement in this regard and the stock will rip higher.

    Thirdly, there is a lot of Hedge Fund movement in the stock, as always, but the insider numbers show that large Hedge Funds are coming back and building larger position in Apple, once again. This includes recent buys from Icahn, for instance.

    Finally, the stock is testing the year highs it may right after its large drop in january. Any move higher than 475 and you will see Apple going back to 500 in no time.

    So, respectfully, John, you have done the difficult part, but gave up at the wrong time. Now do the easy part and hurry up and buy back your stock before is too late.
    Aug 13 02:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Not Worth $460 [View article]
    Nice post and interesting perspective. Good job.
    Feb 20 06:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple May Be Worth $1111, But Shares Won't Get There Anytime Soon [View article]
    "Apple is the new Nokia, its shares will contiune fall for like 10-12 years.

    Apple is still in the denial phase, not sure they have understood theire own problem."

    These seem to be the types of comments made by someone who has absolutely no money invested in the marketplace but plenty of time to post nonsensical opinions without any factual support.

    I guess that's how one gets to 726 posts.
    Nov 27 04:46 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    "Apple's earnings are really unpredictable."

    Seriously? I wonder how we all do it...
    Nov 19 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Cannot Be Valued: Warren Buffett Knows This And You Should Too [View article]
    David,

    I guess I didn't make myself clear. If Buffett really wanted to value Apple, or for that matter almost any company, he certainly could. The point is that Buffett doesn't feel comfortable with the industry so he doesn't even try to value Apple. He is simply not interested, so he doesn't spend the time.

    Also, even if Apple were not a technology company, it certainly doesn't fit the " forgotten value stock" label that Buffett seeks.

    In short, Apple is simply not the type of company or investment that Buffett seeks. That, however, says a lot about Buffett but nothing about Apple's business. Apple and Buffet are simply not a good match.
    Nov 19 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Apple Bottom Friday? [View article]
    Bret,

    If you read my previous comment, you will see that my LEAP calls went up 59% from Friday morning. The remaining upside is still huge.

    Nevertheless, I must confess that you and I got lucky with the timing. The important thing is not that, apparently, we got to time the stock turnaround perfectly this time, but rather, that one ought to be disciplined and keep on doing the right thing regardless of what other people think.

    I keep on repeating my axiom over and over: One should never be more invested in being right that in making money.
    Nov 19 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Apple Bottom Friday? [View article]
    bbrady413 and CMacintosh,

    The 2015 LEAPs 850 calls are already trading at $35. So they have moved from $22 on Friday morning when I bought the last ones to $35 on Monday afternoon, a 59% move in a day. Granted, Apple has moved from $505 to $565, or 12% in the same period of time.

    The move was quick and swift and I must confess, I didn't
    expect that but, naturally, I am happy with it. I am not getting out, though as the upside is still enormous.

    Is it too late to get in? Not at all. Think long term. How much will be the call worth if Apple goes back anywhere close to $700? How much will it be worth if it starts getting close to the strike price? That's why you get the LEAPs; to give yourself a chance to be right and to have time on your side.
    Nov 19 04:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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