drbob66

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

"For now, besides military weaponry, our number one export is entertainment (DIS)."

Actually, according to the U.S. Trade Commission's "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Release (FT900)," the most recent YTD statistics (as of Sept 2009) show that "Capital Goods, except Automotive" tops the list of exported goods at $287.3B...the largest of which is "Semiconductors" ($26.7B), followed closely by "Civilian aircraft" ($26B), "Industrial Machines, other" ($21.7B) and "Telecommunication equipment" ($21.4B). "Medical Equipment" comes in forth place at $20.1B.

"Automotive vehicles, parts and engines" has its own category and - somewhat surprisingly - totals a whopping $55.8B so far this year.

The second largest exported goods category is "Industrial supplies and Materials," the YTD total of which is $213B...and the biggest in this category is "Plastic Materials" ($18.2B...remember "The Graduate"?), followed closely by "Chemicals-Organic" ($17.6B) and "Fuel Oil" ($17.5B)

The third largest category is ,"Consumer Goods," with exports totaling $110B ytd...the largest (by far) of which is "Pharmaceutical preparations" ($34.4B), with "other Household Goods" a distant second at just under $13B.

Finally, the fourth largest "Capital Goods" category is "Foods, Feed and Beverages" at $68.4B ytd as of Sept 2009. The top spot here is taken by "Soybeans" ($11B), followed by "Meat, Poultry, etc." ($9.1B) and (you guessed it ) "Corn" ($7.8B).

[as a sidenote..."Hair and waste materials" exports totaled $350M ytd and are listed under "Industrial supplies and Materials." Not sure what this is all about...but it's probably good that we're exporting them]

Anyways, these are the major categories of "Goods" exports for Jan-Sept 2009, and can easily be found by searching the internet for "U.S. Exports 2009"...or just go to www.census.gov/foreign.../
Of course, there is the other major category of exports...that is, "Services." I don't have the data for 2009 offhand, but I did very easily find (search "U S Export Factsheet 2008") that LAST YEAR the total U.S. exports of good and services amounted to $1.84T...of which $551.6B (30%) was "Services" [the largest categories of which were "business, professional and technical services,insurance services, and financial services" ($241B), "travel" ($111.5B), "royalties and license fees" ($91.1B) and "other transportation" ($60.2B).

I assume that we'll probably export roughly the same % amount of "Services" this year as last (although possibly much less "financial services," if the rest of the world learned anything in the past year or so). Obviously, "Services" comprise a significant portion of our total international exports yoy, and I expect it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Still, it should be clear from the data that the U.S. exports much more than "military weaponry...and entertainment," as the author suggests. I don't have the actual figures for "military weaponry" or "entertainment" for 2009 (or even 2008)...but I highly doubt that they would come in at No. 1 and No. 2 on the list. If anyone has data to the contrary, I would be interested in examining the numbers.

The Twenty Year Stock Bubble Is Still Inflated

"For this analysis to be more rigorous these factors should be included."

Yeah, there are MANY factors that should have been taken into consideration....if you wanted to do a THOROUGH analysis of current stock valuations vs. historical averages. I guess you opted not to bother, and used ONE metric. Pretty lame effort, imo. Why'd you even bother?


On Nov 20 10:19 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> Andrew - - -
>
> You are correct. Stock valuations have to be discounted against future
> earnings expectations and compared to the "risk free return". When
> interest rates are low much higher stock valuations are supported.
>
>
> For this analysis to be more rigorous these factors should be included.
>

It's Not Just About Getting High - Seven Marijuana Stocks

LOL...I already own some POT and SEED, so I would definitely by a few hundred shares of "WEED"


On Jan 22 04:54 PM Urbane Gorilla! wrote:

> Hmmm .. Needs and ETF.... Too bad the ticker 'POT' is already taken......
> Maybe 'WEED' ... jegan

UNG: The unNatural Gas ETF

"while UNG does have some volatile ups and downs – you can still make money on it. Just remember that this is in no way linked to natural gas any longer..."

Hilarious. So it's not linked to the NG price...or ANYTHING, as far as I can tell...but people make (and lose) money trading it. Why bother with it? Why not trade the stock of a company that owns and/or produces natural gas? Or at least has SOMETHING to do with nat gas?

Just goes to show what a casino the stock market has become. There are so many ETFs that are completely useless for anything other than trading games.

Readers Ask: Antares, GenVec, Xoma,

Hilarious!

Thanks for the laugh.


On Sep 23 08:40 AM Timothy Sykes wrote:

> This guy MUST be a paid promoter or total sucker to say he likes
> GVBP, which has been proven to be a blatant fraud, as they were a
> travel agency last month, now they want to cure cancer with $35,000
> in the bank, they use recycled press releases from "NextGen Bio (NXGB),
> Genova's disclaimer on their own website mistakenly lists "Nextgen
> Bio" as the company name, not to mention spending millions hiring
> stock promoters! Careful SA, disclosure is good for people who own
> stock, but how much has VFC been paid to say this company is real?
>
>
> I am currently short this stock, yes, and making a bundle, but I
> make my $ trading, not through scummy compensation, see my research
> and learn:
>
> timothysykes.com/blog/..../

Origin Agritech: Planting the Seeds for Success

Ahh, I love reading these "old" articles and seeing how good (or bad) the author's predictions were. Of course, the "volatility squeeze" that the author suggested did in fact push the stock up to about $6.70 in the short term....and then the global economy imploded, ad SEED tumbled all the way to below $2/sh. At that point, it was trading at about the cash balance on it's books ($1.84 as I recall), so I bought some more...and kept buying on dips. As I write, SEED is trading at about $5.60. Still slightly below where it was when the author posted this bullish article. I still own my shares (and have traded many times along the way, with good results). This is a somewhat volatile stock, and earnings are erratic due to the cyclical nature of their accounts receivables, etc. Overall, it's been a good stock to own, and I do expect SEED to eventually reach $11 again someday...but I also expect the price action to be volatile, and the road to $11 will be a LONG, tough one...seeing as nearly everyone who's bought this stock prior to the publication of this article is still underwater on their "investment." The way to play this one, imo, is to look for setups before the "spikes," as they can be very dramatic (and lucrative). I expect another one (to maybe $8) soon. Of course, it could also fade away...nothing in the future price action of this stock would surprise me, given what I've seen this past year.

STEC's Promising Future – Part II

Bought some STEC for first time last week....avg. price for me now is $13.50. I'll hang on and monitor the situation closely...who knows where this stock will bottom if the author's analysis is flawed (or we have any more news "surprises"). Seriously, the author's credibility has to be pretty low now after this massive decline in share price. The world according to GARP...indeed! I guess he's no worse off than the other analysts covering STEC...most seem to have maintained their buy recommendations (albeit with much lower target prices than the author's $60). Talk about being blindsided...

Now, apparently, management has scheduled an analysts' Day on Nov. 17...I imagine this stock should see interesting action on the 18th. Hopefully $13 will hold as the floor for this stock.

STEC's Massive Selloff: It All Hinges on EMC

Well, I'm no legal expert, but it seems logical that you DON'T have to keep holding the stock at this point. The suit would be asking for compensation for MONEY LOST...and, technically, I'm not sure you've lost any money yet. Your losses are "unrealized" at this point. When you sell (at a price lower than you bought at), then you'll have "realized" losses.

As a matter of fact, it seems to me that if you were serious about joining in on any of the multitude of class action lawsuits now being files against STEC, it might behoove you to sell at some point (and "realize" your losses). Otherwise, you might be mistaken for a loyal, diehard shareholder.

One wonders what will happen to these lawsuits if the stock price recovers by the time any legal action might eventually wind up in court. Maybe it won't get back up to $42, but $18 or even $24 might be achievable IF the inventory carryover at EMC turns out be be a temporary setback. Of course, that's a big IF...

Frankly, I had never even heard of STEC until just before their Q3 earnings announcement. One look at the chart told me to stay away...very far away. This stock basically went from $3.50 to $10 in four months...and then soared from $10 to $42 in another four months, without blinking. I see little consolidation of gains in that chart: a perfect cup formed from May 2008 to May 2009...with NO HANDLE at all. Very dangerous situation. Did everyone think this could continue indefinitely?

Anyways, the selling in Sept from $42 to $30 should have been a clear warning signal...institutional investors were cashing out big-time (as were the Brothers Moshayedi) from this unsustainable run-up in stock price.

The biggest question on my mind has to do with the short sellers. This thing was crushed by short hedgies....many of whom, I suspect, had some information beforehand (maybe from EMC?). Someone made a lot of money from this stock collapse, you can be sure of that.




On Nov 07 11:37 PM Harb1nger wrote:

> Im standing here with my pants around my ankles wondering where the
> bottom of this mess is. Hind sight says yes I should have stoploss
> awhile ago but the information pointed to increased profits. Being
> loyal to this security ( thinking "ok it has to start going back
> up today" ) has left a very bad loss in my portfolio. You just cant
> win when you get earnings up and it tanks like a millstone. When
> will this ship stop taking on water and gain some buoyancy??? Also,
> with regard to the alleged investigation, must we continue to hold
> the stock to be part of the class action if indeed those claims prove
> true?

Silver Prices Are About to Fall

"based on charts I've examined, the way I see things, silver prices could temporarily fall to $11 per troy, again, or even lower, before March 2010. "

Well, according to MY chart analysis, silver may pull back to around $14.50 (NOT $11)...and then continue upward to $20. Sure, I could trade around that and attempt to avoid a maybe 10-15% decline in paper gains...but instead I think I'll take the opportunity to ADD to my silver position on weakness.

"Prognostications as to exact prices, of course, are seldom accurate."

At least you got that part right. Still, I say silver will hit $20 before it sees $11.

ETrade: Not for the Faint Hearted

Huge gap at $8.02 from Nov 2007. It needs to be filled sometime (could take a while, though). A (very) patient investor could be looking at a five bagger from today's levels.

Rolling Stone's Taibbi on Naked Short Sales: Close but No Cigar

Interesting link...


On Oct 22 11:42 PM John O wrote:

> I was an options market maker on the PSE for 5 years and the CBOE
> for 5 years and traded options and stocks short and long in about
> every conceivable situation. I am intimately familiar with the Bear
> Stearns take down.
> I will say that the author here and Taibbi and others who believe
> that naked short sellers caused the Bear Stearns crash do not have
> a clue to what has happened or they are deliberately misdirecting
> the blame away from people like Dimon, Bernanke, Cox, Cramer, and
> many others who stole billions from illegal insider trading.
>
> Just ask Cui Bono? and the answer becomes the illegal inside traders
> and J.P. Morgan.
>
> See the real explanation of Bear Stearns below:
>
> www.optionsforemployee...

Why Apple Is Worth $80

LOL, I love this kind of article. It reminds me of a guy that I used to follow on the internet...he has a site called "trading with TK" (www.tradingwithtk.com/). You can check his "current positions" right on that site, and you can see that he shorted AAPL on March 5 at $90. He used to update his trades daily...until March 29, when he posted his last comment: "On a few weeks vacation."

I hope the author doesn't expect to hold his short AAPL position until it gets to $80...if so, I expect he'll be going on "a few weeks vacation" soon enough.

The Nine Best Natural Gas, Oil Pipelines for Income and Capital Gains

Buy AHD now, and hold it for a while..it will be $20.90 within 3 years (current price $3.94).

And don't forget...you heard it here first.

You're welcome.

Why I'm Long Mortgage REIT Chimera

NLY just boosted their quarterly dividend to $.69 last night (now yielding 14%)...this stock has been a monster for me this year, so I say THANKS to Mike Farrell and all the dedicated employees at Annaly for making me mucho dinero! Keep up the good work!

Sorry, Patrick, RWT looks nice, but they're only paying 6% divy at the moment. I'd buy ANH or CMO before RWT...but I have enough money in REITs right now, so I'm holding my NLY and some ANH bought earlier this year.


On Sep 01 01:53 PM Patrick Harden wrote:

> I'm not entirely sure that I buy into Annaly's divide and conquer
> methodology on the distressed debt orgy. First of all, they were
> way too early in effectively calling the non-agency backed RMBS bottom
> with the Chimera IPO. On the heels of that disaster, Annaly now
> has another spinoff for the commercial side of the house in CreXus
> (how do you even pronounce that?).
>
> I'm not convinced that the Annaly machine has enough experience outside
> of the agency arena to run either REIT, frankly. Chimera's only
> defensive strategy during the 2008 crisis was to launch one dilutive
> secondary after another -- perhaps just throwing good money after
> bad in an attempt to bury bad paper deep in the portfolio.
>
> I think investors stand a better shot with Redwood Trust (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> which has much more relevant experience in non-agency MBS than Chimera
> & crew. Even one of the newly launched vulture REITs will have
> a cleaner balance sheet and less share dilution.

Extreme FDA Trades: 30 Stocks Under 5 Bucks

intranasal ketamine? really? Thanks for this info, this is interesting. I had no idea anyone was developing ketamine for this purpose.

For anyone interested, check out this link about DM Turner, a "psychonautic researcher" who drowned in his bathtub while tripping on "Special K." He was hooked on the stuff for many years.

www.erowid.org/culture...


On Aug 10 01:06 PM Mike Havrilla wrote:

> Check out this good, recent update article for JAV:
> seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> JAV also mentioned above in my extreme trade article for pending
> Ereska Phase 3 results:
>
> Ereska is a non-opiate pain drug being developed by (1) Javelin Pharma
> (AMEX:seekingalpha.com/symbo...)($1.90) for the acute treatment
> of moderate to severe pain in military, trauma, post-operative, and
> emergency room settings with the potential for treating breakthrough
> pain from cancer as well. The drug is delivered by a disposable manual
> pump with a rapid onset and duration of pain relief of about two
> hours without opiate side effects such as respiratory depression.
> JAV expects to release the primary endpoint data from the Ereska
> (intranasal ketamine) Phase 3 pivotal trial in mid-2009, which consists
> of 220 adult patients to evaluate the safety and effectiveness of
> the drug in the treatment of acute pain (arising from surgery, trauma,
> or injury).