drbob66's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/298610/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175575-global-warming-models-out-of-order?source=feed#comment-780931 780931
www.tnr.com/blog/the-v...]]> Sat, 28 Nov 2009 20:17:25 -0500
www.tnr.com/blog/the-v...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175479-despite-upward-trend-still-only-buying-gold-on-the-dips?source=feed#comment-780010 780010
I'd like to see more specifics....i.e., is gold a good buy at $1000? Or will it correct to $900? Or $800? Gold had a nice pullback to $680 in Oct 2008...did you buy it then? Or did you wait for it to get back to >$800?

It takes a lot of conviction (or guts) to buy on "dips" sometimes...especially when the asset in question has had a huge run-up in price in a short period of time. The GLD is up 74% since that "dip" in Oct 2008.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:49:23 -0500
I'd like to see more specifics....i.e., is gold a good buy at $1000? Or will it correct to $900? Or $800? Gold had a nice pullback to $680 in Oct 2008...did you buy it then? Or did you wait for it to get back to >$800?

It takes a lot of conviction (or guts) to buy on "dips" sometimes...especially when the asset in question has had a huge run-up in price in a short period of time. The GLD is up 74% since that "dip" in Oct 2008.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175536-dubai-gauging-the-impact?source=feed#comment-780003 780003
Next week the talk will be about Black Friday sales results.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:34:42 -0500
Next week the talk will be about Black Friday sales results.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175337-jacobs-engineering-cementing-a-leadership-spot-in-oil-sands?source=feed#comment-777989 777989
If only some of the stimulus money had gone into rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure, JEC might have a better outlook for next year. I'm still not sure where all those hundreds of billions of dollars ended up.]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:43:08 -0500
If only some of the stimulus money had gone into rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure, JEC might have a better outlook for next year. I'm still not sure where all those hundreds of billions of dollars ended up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175284-is-gold-bullion-overdue-for-a-pullback?source=feed#comment-777976 777976 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:16:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175272-case-shiller-home-prices-continue-to-rise?source=feed#comment-777973 777973
Are you serious? Do you realize how much home prices will have to rise for any of the multitude of homebuyers that bought during the later stages of the boom (2004-2006) to be "above water" again? Perhaps some of those who bought in late 2008 might get some of their equity back (although I've seen plenty of new foreclosures appear on the MLS lately for houses bought in 2008 and even 2009)...as long as they got a real bargain. These home sales statistics are as manipulated as any the govt. issues...all in the hopes of fooling people into overpaying for houses and reinflating the bubble. Give it a rest.]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:12:02 -0500
Are you serious? Do you realize how much home prices will have to rise for any of the multitude of homebuyers that bought during the later stages of the boom (2004-2006) to be "above water" again? Perhaps some of those who bought in late 2008 might get some of their equity back (although I've seen plenty of new foreclosures appear on the MLS lately for houses bought in 2008 and even 2009)...as long as they got a real bargain. These home sales statistics are as manipulated as any the govt. issues...all in the hopes of fooling people into overpaying for houses and reinflating the bubble. Give it a rest.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175253-red-flag-oil-s-faltering?source=feed#comment-777968 777968 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:03:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/175370-latest-housing-numbers-are-quite-misleading?source=feed#comment-777952 777952
Ironically, I've also seen plenty of NEW foreclosure and short-sale listings for properties that were also recently bought (within the last 6-12 months). These tend to be in the 300-500K range. Clearly, real-estate in this area is still a speculative sport...part of the SoCal psychology by now.]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:26:38 -0500
Ironically, I've also seen plenty of NEW foreclosure and short-sale listings for properties that were also recently bought (within the last 6-12 months). These tend to be in the 300-500K range. Clearly, real-estate in this area is still a speculative sport...part of the SoCal psychology by now.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165808-knight-capital-bulls-expect-another-push?source=feed#comment-777870 777870 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:44:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173177-knight-capital-group-buying-on-the-dip?source=feed#comment-777864 777864
GS downgraded NITE to "neutral" from "buy" this week ...and Schwab downgraded it to "sell" from "hold" (both after it had already fallen 30%, of course). Good thing we have professional analysts around to help us with our investment decisions.

Personally, I bought a little at $16.15 before the downgrades (and after seeing that the insiders had bought at $15.50). I guess if it tanks even further, at least the insiders will lose a lot more than I do. Still, it's no fun to see your "investment" lose 10-11% of its value within three days. ]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:39:58 -0500
GS downgraded NITE to "neutral" from "buy" this week ...and Schwab downgraded it to "sell" from "hold" (both after it had already fallen 30%, of course). Good thing we have professional analysts around to help us with our investment decisions.

Personally, I bought a little at $16.15 before the downgrades (and after seeing that the insiders had bought at $15.50). I guess if it tanks even further, at least the insiders will lose a lot more than I do. Still, it's no fun to see your "investment" lose 10-11% of its value within three days. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175258-shorting-the-market-by-going-long-the-dollar-and-volatility?source=feed#comment-777262 777262 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:09:04 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73572-origin-agritech-planting-the-seeds-for-success?source=feed#comment-773984 773984
Every once in a while, I get one right, lol. ]]> Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:47:45 -0500
Every once in a while, I get one right, lol. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173607-why-the-stock-market-should-crash?source=feed#comment-772414 772414
Only if you're selling short...and carelessly at that.

If that's true, then you're just gambling...and you probably deserve to lose it all.


On Nov 20 07:08 PM Tim McPartland wrote:

> Well written article--but maybe a bit too logical--one can go broke
> trying to pick tops in markets.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 19:18:57 -0500
Only if you're selling short...and carelessly at that.

If that's true, then you're just gambling...and you probably deserve to lose it all.


On Nov 20 07:08 PM Tim McPartland wrote:

> Well written article--but maybe a bit too logical--one can go broke
> trying to pick tops in markets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174526-11-stocks-increasing-dividends-long-term-return?source=feed#comment-772221 772221 Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:00:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174557-5-dividend-yields-in-the-s-p-500?source=feed#comment-772152 772152
From erictyson.com/arti...:

"Here's how Prechter's trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert's analysis:

Annualized Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent
* Prechter's Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent
* Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

"On an annualized basis, Prechter has underperformed the broad U.S. stock market Wilshire 5000 index by a whopping 25 percent per year! Here's what Hulbert's analysis shows would have happened to $100,000 invested according to Prechter's investing trading advice versus the Wilshire 5000 U.S. stock market index:

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):

* Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100
* Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700"

Might not be a wise idea to invest based on Elliot Wave theory.


On Nov 22 11:23 AM TradingHelpDesk wrote:

> Sorry. Doh! Here's the right link:
>
> elliottwave.com/r....;rcn=aa51b&amp...
>]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:28:13 -0500
From erictyson.com/arti...:

"Here's how Prechter's trading advice has done from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 versus the broad U.S. stock market average (Wilshire 5000 index) according to Hulbert's analysis:

Annualized Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 9.7 percent
* Prechter's Trading Advice -15.4 percent

Total Return:

* Wilshire 5000 Index + 857.1 percent
* Prechter's Trading Advice - 98.3 percent

"On an annualized basis, Prechter has underperformed the broad U.S. stock market Wilshire 5000 index by a whopping 25 percent per year! Here's what Hulbert's analysis shows would have happened to $100,000 invested according to Prechter's investing trading advice versus the Wilshire 5000 U.S. stock market index:

$100,000 Invested (1/1/85-5/31/09):

* Wilshire 5000 Index $957,100
* Prechter's Trading Advice $1,700"

Might not be a wise idea to invest based on Elliot Wave theory.


On Nov 22 11:23 AM TradingHelpDesk wrote:

> Sorry. Doh! Here's the right link:
>
> elliottwave.com/r....;rcn=aa51b&amp...
>]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174648-a-major-market-correction-is-inevitable?source=feed#comment-772141 772141
"A major market correction is inevitable." Yeah, probably...but WHEN? There will ALWAYS be a major market correction in the future...but will it happen next week? Or, after stocks go up another 10%? or 20%? Why doesn't the author go out on a limb and suggest a timeframe?

Or, better yet, use real examples: Which stocks do you consider "overvalued," and why? Clearly, if you think the S&P 500 is overvalued, then there must be a large number of these 500 stocks that are - in your opinion - "overvalued." How about naming a few? At least then we could have an intelligent conversation about valuation, company performance, etc. Without discussing specifics, the article has no practical utility...it's just the SAME article published over and over again at SA...for the last eight months. Basically, the idea is: "The market is too high now...it will (it MUST) go down (sometime in the future)."

There's nothing new here.]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 16:09:34 -0500
"A major market correction is inevitable." Yeah, probably...but WHEN? There will ALWAYS be a major market correction in the future...but will it happen next week? Or, after stocks go up another 10%? or 20%? Why doesn't the author go out on a limb and suggest a timeframe?

Or, better yet, use real examples: Which stocks do you consider "overvalued," and why? Clearly, if you think the S&P 500 is overvalued, then there must be a large number of these 500 stocks that are - in your opinion - "overvalued." How about naming a few? At least then we could have an intelligent conversation about valuation, company performance, etc. Without discussing specifics, the article has no practical utility...it's just the SAME article published over and over again at SA...for the last eight months. Basically, the idea is: "The market is too high now...it will (it MUST) go down (sometime in the future)."

There's nothing new here.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174658-valero-s-major-announcement-a-telling-economic-indicator?source=feed#comment-772129 772129 "This announcement is an indicator that, despite a technical recovery, the economy still has major obstacles to overcome."

You're reaching. Valero shutting down one old refinery means the "economic recovery" is over? Yeah, right.

And what's up with this? "Disclosure: I have owned owned shares and call options in Valero and other refiners for a number of years, but I sold all positions in 2007."

2007? That was two years ago. Who cares?

What a waste of an article. Can I have my five minutes back, please?]]> Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:51:01 -0500 "This announcement is an indicator that, despite a technical recovery, the economy still has major obstacles to overcome."

You're reaching. Valero shutting down one old refinery means the "economic recovery" is over? Yeah, right.

And what's up with this? "Disclosure: I have owned owned shares and call options in Valero and other refiners for a number of years, but I sold all positions in 2007."

2007? That was two years ago. Who cares?

What a waste of an article. Can I have my five minutes back, please?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174179-10-reasons-to-believe-that-we-re-in-a-depression?source=feed#comment-770325 770325 DIS)."

Actually, according to the U.S. Trade Commission's "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Release (FT900)," the most recent YTD statistics (as of Sept 2009) show that "Capital Goods, except Automotive" tops the list of exported goods at $287.3B...the largest of which is "Semiconductors" ($26.7B), followed closely by "Civilian aircraft" ($26B), "Industrial Machines, other" ($21.7B) and "Telecommunication equipment" ($21.4B). "Medical Equipment" comes in forth place at $20.1B.

"Automotive vehicles, parts and engines" has its own category and - somewhat surprisingly - totals a whopping $55.8B so far this year.

The second largest exported goods category is "Industrial supplies and Materials," the YTD total of which is $213B...and the biggest in this category is "Plastic Materials" ($18.2B...remember "The Graduate"?), followed closely by "Chemicals-Organic" ($17.6B) and "Fuel Oil" ($17.5B)

The third largest category is ,"Consumer Goods," with exports totaling $110B ytd...the largest (by far) of which is "Pharmaceutical preparations" ($34.4B), with "other Household Goods" a distant second at just under $13B.

Finally, the fourth largest "Capital Goods" category is "Foods, Feed and Beverages" at $68.4B ytd as of Sept 2009. The top spot here is taken by "Soybeans" ($11B), followed by "Meat, Poultry, etc." ($9.1B) and (you guessed it ) "Corn" ($7.8B).

[as a sidenote..."Hair and waste materials" exports totaled $350M ytd and are listed under "Industrial supplies and Materials." Not sure what this is all about...but it's probably good that we're exporting them]

Anyways, these are the major categories of "Goods" exports for Jan-Sept 2009, and can easily be found by searching the internet for "U.S. Exports 2009"...or just go to www.census.gov/foreign.../
Of course, there is the other major category of exports...that is, "Services." I don't have the data for 2009 offhand, but I did very easily find (search "U S Export Factsheet 2008") that LAST YEAR the total U.S. exports of good and services amounted to $1.84T...of which $551.6B (30%) was "Services" [the largest categories of which were "business, professional and technical services,insurance services, and financial services" ($241B), "travel" ($111.5B), "royalties and license fees" ($91.1B) and "other transportation" ($60.2B).

I assume that we'll probably export roughly the same % amount of "Services" this year as last (although possibly much less "financial services," if the rest of the world learned anything in the past year or so). Obviously, "Services" comprise a significant portion of our total international exports yoy, and I expect it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Still, it should be clear from the data that the U.S. exports much more than "military weaponry...and entertainment," as the author suggests. I don't have the actual figures for "military weaponry" or "entertainment" for 2009 (or even 2008)...but I highly doubt that they would come in at No. 1 and No. 2 on the list. If anyone has data to the contrary, I would be interested in examining the numbers.]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 05:34:29 -0500 DIS)."

Actually, according to the U.S. Trade Commission's "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Release (FT900)," the most recent YTD statistics (as of Sept 2009) show that "Capital Goods, except Automotive" tops the list of exported goods at $287.3B...the largest of which is "Semiconductors" ($26.7B), followed closely by "Civilian aircraft" ($26B), "Industrial Machines, other" ($21.7B) and "Telecommunication equipment" ($21.4B). "Medical Equipment" comes in forth place at $20.1B.

"Automotive vehicles, parts and engines" has its own category and - somewhat surprisingly - totals a whopping $55.8B so far this year.

The second largest exported goods category is "Industrial supplies and Materials," the YTD total of which is $213B...and the biggest in this category is "Plastic Materials" ($18.2B...remember "The Graduate"?), followed closely by "Chemicals-Organic" ($17.6B) and "Fuel Oil" ($17.5B)

The third largest category is ,"Consumer Goods," with exports totaling $110B ytd...the largest (by far) of which is "Pharmaceutical preparations" ($34.4B), with "other Household Goods" a distant second at just under $13B.

Finally, the fourth largest "Capital Goods" category is "Foods, Feed and Beverages" at $68.4B ytd as of Sept 2009. The top spot here is taken by "Soybeans" ($11B), followed by "Meat, Poultry, etc." ($9.1B) and (you guessed it ) "Corn" ($7.8B).

[as a sidenote..."Hair and waste materials" exports totaled $350M ytd and are listed under "Industrial supplies and Materials." Not sure what this is all about...but it's probably good that we're exporting them]

Anyways, these are the major categories of "Goods" exports for Jan-Sept 2009, and can easily be found by searching the internet for "U.S. Exports 2009"...or just go to www.census.gov/foreign.../
Of course, there is the other major category of exports...that is, "Services." I don't have the data for 2009 offhand, but I did very easily find (search "U S Export Factsheet 2008") that LAST YEAR the total U.S. exports of good and services amounted to $1.84T...of which $551.6B (30%) was "Services" [the largest categories of which were "business, professional and technical services,insurance services, and financial services" ($241B), "travel" ($111.5B), "royalties and license fees" ($91.1B) and "other transportation" ($60.2B).

I assume that we'll probably export roughly the same % amount of "Services" this year as last (although possibly much less "financial services," if the rest of the world learned anything in the past year or so). Obviously, "Services" comprise a significant portion of our total international exports yoy, and I expect it will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Still, it should be clear from the data that the U.S. exports much more than "military weaponry...and entertainment," as the author suggests. I don't have the actual figures for "military weaponry" or "entertainment" for 2009 (or even 2008)...but I highly doubt that they would come in at No. 1 and No. 2 on the list. If anyone has data to the contrary, I would be interested in examining the numbers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174492-the-twenty-year-stock-bubble-is-still-inflated?source=feed#comment-770218 770218
Yeah, there are MANY factors that should have been taken into consideration....if you wanted to do a THOROUGH analysis of current stock valuations vs. historical averages. I guess you opted not to bother, and used ONE metric. Pretty lame effort, imo. Why'd you even bother?


On Nov 20 10:19 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> Andrew - - -
>
> You are correct. Stock valuations have to be discounted against future
> earnings expectations and compared to the "risk free return". When
> interest rates are low much higher stock valuations are supported.
>
>
> For this analysis to be more rigorous these factors should be included.
> ]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 03:02:19 -0500
Yeah, there are MANY factors that should have been taken into consideration....if you wanted to do a THOROUGH analysis of current stock valuations vs. historical averages. I guess you opted not to bother, and used ONE metric. Pretty lame effort, imo. Why'd you even bother?


On Nov 20 10:19 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

> Andrew - - -
>
> You are correct. Stock valuations have to be discounted against future
> earnings expectations and compared to the "risk free return". When
> interest rates are low much higher stock valuations are supported.
>
>
> For this analysis to be more rigorous these factors should be included.
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115726-it-s-not-just-about-getting-high-seven-marijuana-stocks?source=feed#comment-766401 766401

On Jan 22 04:54 PM Urbane Gorilla! wrote:

> Hmmm .. Needs and ETF.... Too bad the ticker 'POT' is already taken......
> Maybe 'WEED' ... jegan]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 21:31:27 -0500

On Jan 22 04:54 PM Urbane Gorilla! wrote:

> Hmmm .. Needs and ETF.... Too bad the ticker 'POT' is already taken......
> Maybe 'WEED' ... jegan]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173708-ung-the-unnatural-gas-etf?source=feed#comment-766202 766202
Hilarious. So it's not linked to the NG price...or ANYTHING, as far as I can tell...but people make (and lose) money trading it. Why bother with it? Why not trade the stock of a company that owns and/or produces natural gas? Or at least has SOMETHING to do with nat gas?

Just goes to show what a casino the stock market has become. There are so many ETFs that are completely useless for anything other than trading games. ]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:32:52 -0500
Hilarious. So it's not linked to the NG price...or ANYTHING, as far as I can tell...but people make (and lose) money trading it. Why bother with it? Why not trade the stock of a company that owns and/or produces natural gas? Or at least has SOMETHING to do with nat gas?

Just goes to show what a casino the stock market has become. There are so many ETFs that are completely useless for anything other than trading games. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161182-readers-ask-antares-genvec-xoma?source=feed#comment-766118 766118
Thanks for the laugh.


On Sep 23 08:40 AM Timothy Sykes wrote:

> This guy MUST be a paid promoter or total sucker to say he likes
> GVBP, which has been proven to be a blatant fraud, as they were a
> travel agency last month, now they want to cure cancer with $35,000
> in the bank, they use recycled press releases from "NextGen Bio (NXGB),
> Genova's disclaimer on their own website mistakenly lists "Nextgen
> Bio" as the company name, not to mention spending millions hiring
> stock promoters! Careful SA, disclosure is good for people who own
> stock, but how much has VFC been paid to say this company is real?
>
>
> I am currently short this stock, yes, and making a bundle, but I
> make my $ trading, not through scummy compensation, see my research
> and learn:
>
> timothysykes.com/blog/..../]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:26:04 -0500
Thanks for the laugh.


On Sep 23 08:40 AM Timothy Sykes wrote:

> This guy MUST be a paid promoter or total sucker to say he likes
> GVBP, which has been proven to be a blatant fraud, as they were a
> travel agency last month, now they want to cure cancer with $35,000
> in the bank, they use recycled press releases from "NextGen Bio (NXGB),
> Genova's disclaimer on their own website mistakenly lists "Nextgen
> Bio" as the company name, not to mention spending millions hiring
> stock promoters! Careful SA, disclosure is good for people who own
> stock, but how much has VFC been paid to say this company is real?
>
>
> I am currently short this stock, yes, and making a bundle, but I
> make my $ trading, not through scummy compensation, see my research
> and learn:
>
> timothysykes.com/blog/..../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73572-origin-agritech-planting-the-seeds-for-success?source=feed#comment-765760 765760 Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:03:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167215-stec-s-promising-future-part-ii?source=feed#comment-757787 757787
Now, apparently, management has scheduled an analysts' Day on Nov. 17...I imagine this stock should see interesting action on the 18th. Hopefully $13 will hold as the floor for this stock.]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:49:37 -0500
Now, apparently, management has scheduled an analysts' Day on Nov. 17...I imagine this stock should see interesting action on the 18th. Hopefully $13 will hold as the floor for this stock.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171444-stec-s-massive-selloff-it-all-hinges-on-emc?source=feed#comment-756319 756319
As a matter of fact, it seems to me that if you were serious about joining in on any of the multitude of class action lawsuits now being files against STEC, it might behoove you to sell at some point (and "realize" your losses). Otherwise, you might be mistaken for a loyal, diehard shareholder.

One wonders what will happen to these lawsuits if the stock price recovers by the time any legal action might eventually wind up in court. Maybe it won't get back up to $42, but $18 or even $24 might be achievable IF the inventory carryover at EMC turns out be be a temporary setback. Of course, that's a big IF...

Frankly, I had never even heard of STEC until just before their Q3 earnings announcement. One look at the chart told me to stay away...very far away. This stock basically went from $3.50 to $10 in four months...and then soared from $10 to $42 in another four months, without blinking. I see little consolidation of gains in that chart: a perfect cup formed from May 2008 to May 2009...with NO HANDLE at all. Very dangerous situation. Did everyone think this could continue indefinitely?

Anyways, the selling in Sept from $42 to $30 should have been a clear warning signal...institutional investors were cashing out big-time (as were the Brothers Moshayedi) from this unsustainable run-up in stock price.

The biggest question on my mind has to do with the short sellers. This thing was crushed by short hedgies....many of whom, I suspect, had some information beforehand (maybe from EMC?). Someone made a lot of money from this stock collapse, you can be sure of that.




On Nov 07 11:37 PM Harb1nger wrote:

> Im standing here with my pants around my ankles wondering where the
> bottom of this mess is. Hind sight says yes I should have stoploss
> awhile ago but the information pointed to increased profits. Being
> loyal to this security ( thinking "ok it has to start going back
> up today" ) has left a very bad loss in my portfolio. You just cant
> win when you get earnings up and it tanks like a millstone. When
> will this ship stop taking on water and gain some buoyancy??? Also,
> with regard to the alleged investigation, must we continue to hold
> the stock to be part of the class action if indeed those claims prove
> true?]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:39:12 -0500
As a matter of fact, it seems to me that if you were serious about joining in on any of the multitude of class action lawsuits now being files against STEC, it might behoove you to sell at some point (and "realize" your losses). Otherwise, you might be mistaken for a loyal, diehard shareholder.

One wonders what will happen to these lawsuits if the stock price recovers by the time any legal action might eventually wind up in court. Maybe it won't get back up to $42, but $18 or even $24 might be achievable IF the inventory carryover at EMC turns out be be a temporary setback. Of course, that's a big IF...

Frankly, I had never even heard of STEC until just before their Q3 earnings announcement. One look at the chart told me to stay away...very far away. This stock basically went from $3.50 to $10 in four months...and then soared from $10 to $42 in another four months, without blinking. I see little consolidation of gains in that chart: a perfect cup formed from May 2008 to May 2009...with NO HANDLE at all. Very dangerous situation. Did everyone think this could continue indefinitely?

Anyways, the selling in Sept from $42 to $30 should have been a clear warning signal...institutional investors were cashing out big-time (as were the Brothers Moshayedi) from this unsustainable run-up in stock price.

The biggest question on my mind has to do with the short sellers. This thing was crushed by short hedgies....many of whom, I suspect, had some information beforehand (maybe from EMC?). Someone made a lot of money from this stock collapse, you can be sure of that.




On Nov 07 11:37 PM Harb1nger wrote:

> Im standing here with my pants around my ankles wondering where the
> bottom of this mess is. Hind sight says yes I should have stoploss
> awhile ago but the information pointed to increased profits. Being
> loyal to this security ( thinking "ok it has to start going back
> up today" ) has left a very bad loss in my portfolio. You just cant
> win when you get earnings up and it tanks like a millstone. When
> will this ship stop taking on water and gain some buoyancy??? Also,
> with regard to the alleged investigation, must we continue to hold
> the stock to be part of the class action if indeed those claims prove
> true?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171442-silver-prices-are-about-to-fall?source=feed#comment-749342 749342
Well, according to MY chart analysis, silver may pull back to around $14.50 (NOT $11)...and then continue upward to $20. Sure, I could trade around that and attempt to avoid a maybe 10-15% decline in paper gains...but instead I think I'll take the opportunity to ADD to my silver position on weakness.

"Prognostications as to exact prices, of course, are seldom accurate."

At least you got that part right. Still, I say silver will hit $20 before it sees $11. ]]> Fri, 06 Nov 2009 22:41:21 -0500
Well, according to MY chart analysis, silver may pull back to around $14.50 (NOT $11)...and then continue upward to $20. Sure, I could trade around that and attempt to avoid a maybe 10-15% decline in paper gains...but instead I think I'll take the opportunity to ADD to my silver position on weakness.

"Prognostications as to exact prices, of course, are seldom accurate."

At least you got that part right. Still, I say silver will hit $20 before it sees $11. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155631-etrade-not-for-the-faint-hearted?source=feed#comment-737872 737872 Fri, 30 Oct 2009 21:53:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168192-rolling-stone-s-taibbi-on-naked-short-sales-close-but-no-cigar?source=feed#comment-733444 733444

On Oct 22 11:42 PM John O wrote:

> I was an options market maker on the PSE for 5 years and the CBOE
> for 5 years and traded options and stocks short and long in about
> every conceivable situation. I am intimately familiar with the Bear
> Stearns take down.
> I will say that the author here and Taibbi and others who believe
> that naked short sellers caused the Bear Stearns crash do not have
> a clue to what has happened or they are deliberately misdirecting
> the blame away from people like Dimon, Bernanke, Cox, Cramer, and
> many others who stole billions from illegal insider trading.
>
> Just ask Cui Bono? and the answer becomes the illegal inside traders
> and J.P. Morgan.
>
> See the real explanation of Bear Stearns below:
>
> www.optionsforemployee...]]> Wed, 28 Oct 2009 01:52:26 -0400

On Oct 22 11:42 PM John O wrote:

> I was an options market maker on the PSE for 5 years and the CBOE
> for 5 years and traded options and stocks short and long in about
> every conceivable situation. I am intimately familiar with the Bear
> Stearns take down.
> I will say that the author here and Taibbi and others who believe
> that naked short sellers caused the Bear Stearns crash do not have
> a clue to what has happened or they are deliberately misdirecting
> the blame away from people like Dimon, Bernanke, Cox, Cramer, and
> many others who stole billions from illegal insider trading.
>
> Just ask Cui Bono? and the answer becomes the illegal inside traders
> and J.P. Morgan.
>
> See the real explanation of Bear Stearns below:
>
> www.optionsforemployee...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168697-why-apple-is-worth-80?source=feed#comment-733259 733259 www.tradingwithtk.com/). You can check his "current positions" right on that site, and you can see that he shorted AAPL on March 5 at $90. He used to update his trades daily...until March 29, when he posted his last comment: "On a few weeks vacation."

I hope the author doesn't expect to hold his short AAPL position until it gets to $80...if so, I expect he'll be going on "a few weeks vacation" soon enough.]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:01:25 -0400 www.tradingwithtk.com/). You can check his "current positions" right on that site, and you can see that he shorted AAPL on March 5 at $90. He used to update his trades daily...until March 29, when he posted his last comment: "On a few weeks vacation."

I hope the author doesn't expect to hold his short AAPL position until it gets to $80...if so, I expect he'll be going on "a few weeks vacation" soon enough.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161567-the-nine-best-natural-gas-oil-pipelines-for-income-and-capital-gains?source=feed#comment-709220 709220
And don't forget...you heard it here first.

You're welcome.]]> Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:29:08 -0400
And don't forget...you heard it here first.

You're welcome.]]>