drbob66

Market Warning from Analyst Barack Obama

"when Intel Corp (INTC) posted stronger-than-expected results but gave only an informal revenue outlook for the current quarter, it sent its shares down 5 percent after hours on Tuesday. That's not a good sign by anyone's estimation."

Actually, the price action on INTC is easily explainable: They only made 11 cents in Q1. Sure, they "beat the estimates;" but the estimate was for three cents! Even at the low of the day, INTC was trading at 37x 2009 estimates...and 20x 2010 estimates (not that any of our current analysts are capable of accurately predicting earnings of any company that far in the future). In other words...it's not cheap. The only thing keeping this stock from plummeting is the dividend...and it's a good thing they have a wad of cash in the bank, because they didn't even earn enough this quarter to pay the dividend this quarter. What you refer to as "stronger than expected" could easily be described as "pretty pathetic"...but the bar was simply set very low.

Nucor Forges a Different Path

I own quite a bit of NUE as well, for the reasons that you described. I just wish I had bought them a long time ago, as I'm still underwater with them. I also wish the steel business fundamentals were better now, since even at the current price, they look expensive, and it's been annoying to hold onto the shares. I'm glad that they haven't cut the dividend (yet) - at least it shows that they care a little about their long-term shareholders...unlike so many other companies that cut their dividends ( to "conserve cash") and then try to spin it as a good thing for shareholders ("Well, you should be happy that we don't have to declare bankruptcy"). Still, you really have to be an optimist to keep holding NUE stock in this environment, IMO. Analyst earnings estimates for 2009 are now at a fraction of what they were before this "Great Recession," but I do wonder if it's really possible for NUE to make anywhere close to $5/sh in 2010, as some are predicting. Time will tell, I guess.

22 Companies with Dividends on Death Row

T got two upgrades this week. They also just recently RAISED their dividend. Might be time to consider covering your short position.

Cramer's Mad Money - Caterpillar the Infrastructure Survivor (1/29/09)

JEC is a quality company...they've been quite consistent in their earnings growth over the years. That said, it MIGHT be a buy at current levels ($38), but who knows? What will be the trough P/E for 2009? I have no idea. I was a buyer during the frantic deleveraging that occurred during Oct/Nov...bought JEC all the way from 60 to 30. But when it got back to the 50's, I regretfully had to sell most of my position, since gains tend to disappear very quickly in this environment. I'll be watching the price action over the next few weeks, but probably won't consider pulling the trigger unless it gets below 36...and definitely if it retests its 52-week low. This market is still highly unpredictable.

Great Shorting Opportunity, Care of Obama

Yeah, I'm also glad to see the author getting his shorts squeezed. I hope he loses a LOT of money...simply for writing such a meaningless article.

"Also, the worst, most heavily shorted stocks rallied the most...Does that make any sense?"

Uh, yeah...it's called short-covering. You might want to try it sometime.