nana1

Cohen & Steers Realty Funds Merge

Most of these money managers, like Cohen and Steers are not good because they had too much leverage and as result these funds went down even more than 90% from their values.
Look at RNP, RPF, RLF, RWF - these are the worst, this is the mirror of manager's brain.
In my opinion, managers like this should be sued by investors for the losses and they should loose their license permanently.
That all they can do is to charge management fee. Greed with no brain. Madof style.

UBS Hikes Crude Oil Forecasts

I downgrade oil price to $35.00 This is based on total production cost about $30.00 per AIE statistical data.
The same for gold, gold should fall to $ 450.00 because production cost are $200-$400. History repeats itself, always.
The one who has higher cost will loose in USA -Gulf of Mexico , the one who has lower cost like Middle East will have very large profit. MIddle East production cost is only less than $10.00. Think always about the cost and add to it maximum 30% or less for profit and non-production cost.
Do not listen to speculators or interested parties, they always want price to go up at your expense.

CEFs Continue to Advance; Real Estate Funds Surge

This is an idiotic statement " ability of REITS to raise equity capital to pay down the debt".
Is this some invention to rise capital ?
What kind of idiots are these shorts or panic-idiots that do not understand capital structure.
I will give you basic lecture:
Public corporation have several ways to rise capital:
1. issue debt
2.issue additional stocks
3. Conbination of 2 at the same time.
Above capital could be used for paying old debt or general expenses or expantion or acquisitions.
people who do not understand that should never invest in any stock. Madoff is waiting for you. I recommend him as number 1 finacial advisor.
I made already more than 100% on these real estate ETF'S taking advantage of idiots.
Do not bet on banks that they will go to hell. Banks can also issue additional stocks and you will go to hell permanently as a short-brain.

Housing Prices Continue Slide, Bad Sign for Markets

This is very good , I am waiting for prices to go down much further.
Buy low sell high.
If you buy any real estate your rental income should pay for monthly mortgage payment, property taxes and hazard insurance. This is the way commercial properties are underwritten. Follow this rule and you will never be hurt as long as you will have income.
Why nobody was screaming that properties went up more than 300% in some areas. People created this buble. Loosers will take losses. People who can not afford house , will have an opportuity to buy.
People should take responsibilities for paying their mortgages. Banks have losses becuse they were stupid to give loans to such people. Do not blame anybody for this except borrowers.

Doug Casey: What to Do in 'The Greater Depression'

Gold- gold price will go down to 500 -600. The theory is if something goes up in 90 degrees level up , it must correct to 20 degrees. See this on the graph.
Long term is up, but not in such speed and amount like Real Estate.
Remember my words, and look at real estate, oil prices, other commodity prices , stock prices

Doug Casey: What to Do in 'The Greater Depression'

A lot of contradicting statements and wrong.
Statement that "producing more than consuming more" will improve situation is wrong.
Also statements that consuming more than producing more is wrong too.

The best statement would be that production = equals consumtion. It menas balance.
The best is balace , supply = demand
Balance budget, balance trade and so on. Who is contradicting that?
Supplying more causes deflation - see prices of houses going down.
Consuming more is causing inflation as it was seen in Real Estate buble.
Note that in USA we produced more housing than we can consume as a result of increased demand where consumption is more than supply.
No other country in the world can produce so much at such speed and lowest possible cost due to technological advancement.
No country is able to compete with USA. We have capital and knowledge and freedom, technological advancement.
USA, we consume all word- this is imports, it means USA capital is allocated on the global scale and these countries are getting reacher at the cost of USA.
If USA capital will come back to USA, reduced imports, USA economy will bloom, I mean import must be equal = to exports . Balance trade again.
Other countries , mainly exporters have a lot too loose when they export less. We USA have the best position.

Banlance trade
balance budget
supply = demand.

All above are statement that should be but they are not and hard to accomplish.
But this is the fact and this free market is working this way to correct by itself - recession) and the help with government.
Why government help?
This is the question I am asking myself.
Because nobody is perfect and nothing is balanced I thing that someone has to watch and regulate how capital or taxes are allocated to the benefit of all people.
Government should be small and efficient and serve the people.
Now we are in ressesion again as a result of excessive production in real estate. Prices went down to the balance level. There is cost to it , people who made wrong decision are paying for this , people who are buying now , they will gain. , so losses = gain, and this is balance.
We are about to come back to balanced economy again. Recession is almost over.
USA- we are the power, we have resources, we the best, nobody will be ever able to compete with us , becuse it is not enough to have money for example from oil like Russia or OPEC country. They will always consume and fail because their system is not able to create and produce anything in such efficient way, excessive consumption always and inflation, lack of investments and production almost in all areas.
I am asking , is there any country in the world that produced so many houses at such low cost. Is there any country were you can buy a house at such low price?.
Answer - none of the above.

Commercial Real Estate: Is the Other Shoe About to Drop?

You are wrong about underwriting standard of commercial loans. I am mortgage broker-commercial loan.
Most people or these TV speaker and writers know nothing about commercial loans.
Commercial Loans underwriting is different than residential.
Lender does not care so much what is the value of property as long as net rental income ( this is Groos income100% - 40% expenses including vacancies = 60% -net rental income) will pay for mortgage payment ( principle and interest) in the ratio 1.25-1.45, depending on property. Other words net rental income must be higher at least 25% or more to pay for monthly mortgage payment.
If you do not know how to underwrite commercial mortgage , please close you mouth and go to school to learn.
Idiots are present and there could be some private or private company that will fail . Most our public corporations in Real Estate survived and they are healty.
Please go to school and learn basic algebra and %.

My Plan to Fix the Housing Problem

The simplest way to lower monthly payments is to extend amortization from 30 year to 40-50 years or more.
Also lower mortgae interest rate to 3.5% and allow people who are under-water to refinance with option to pay interest only if they choose. There should be no negative amortization.
The goal is to reduce monthly mortgage payment by 30-40%.
You can calculate this. Reduction like this is needed, people will be able to pay for mortgages and they will have some money to spend to move our economy.
There is always solution to problem.
People cheated on loan applications on so called stated income program- they bought houses they could not afford to pay.
Banks gave such loan due to poor underwriting standards, their ignored documentation about income and as result they drove themself into bankruptcies.
We the people who are working hard , should not pay for other people and banks mistakes.
Who should pay for this lower payments:
Answer:
Banks should modify mortgages with no re-application, all people who have mortgages should have lower interest.
FED gave banks. 50 discount rate and mortgage rate should be now 3.5%. Why this is not? Banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo Bank and,Bank of America with idiotic management are too gready.
These banks who drove our country into recession should be forced by government to refinance all mortgages to 3.5% as of today or face bunkruptcies.
There are a lot of banks that are solvent and they do not have such problem.
We should not worry if bank goes bunkrupt or people. We need this in our system to ged rid of the worse.
Now houses are affordable and people can afford to buy - first time home buyers and in addition to it there is Tax Credit -$8,000.00 waiting for them.

Housing Data Shows Downturn Could Be Prolonged

In my opinion, housing downturn will not be prolonged because:
1. Prices went down in some cases -70% - California. It means that affordability is much better.
2. I am real estate broker and mortgage broker and I see that first time home buyers that could not afford houses are buying now because they can afford.
3. Children of baby boomers are entering housing market as first time home buyers and these prices are heaven for them because they can afford.
4. FHA- loans - require only 3.5% down payment - conforming loans that are insured by Federal government - are welcome by banks, so please do not tell me that banks do not want to give you loan.
5. Interest Rate is steady - about 6% - for 30 year fixed - full amortization - you can always get if your credit score is OK

Housing Data Shows Downturn Could Be Prolonged

Because some manipulators - criminals and idiots want to gain, short sellers or people who want to buy at lower price. They know nothing about commercial lending, they are stupid like banks that went bankrupt including Washington Mutual and others. I am doing commercial lending as a mortgage broker and formula to get commercial loan is such that Gross Income = 100% minus all expenses =40% equals net income = 60%. This net income from rental properties should cover full mortgage payment in the ratio 1.20 to 1. For example if mortgage payment are $2.000.00 a month than net income from rental property should be $2400.00 o r more. Other words rental property income should pay for mortgage payment. In calculating net income vacancies are taken into consideration. Bank will not give any commercial loan if net income will not pay for mortgage.I do not understand why investors dump these commercial stocks that are paying good dividends. Most USA large commercial - public corporations are in good shape, they always paid dividends. There are always some companies that have bad management or fraudulent management and this is the reason the company can fail. Please diversify your portfolio, the best is IYR- long term, it will alway survive because bad companies are removed from index.

On Nov 04 08:42 AM SellXHB! wrote:

> I agree with this article, however, I am not sure why IYR is referenced
> as a related stock. IYR covers commercial real estate, not residential.