blazespinnaker

Alternative Energy Storage: Lithium, Lead or Both?

err, sorry. I meant to say that lithium prices *will* be based on mining costs + some reasonable markup.

There will be no cartel premium (well, maybe a small one based on what little switching costs there are).

As long as lead based or nickel or whatever is waiting in the wings, lithium producers have no leverage.

Alternative Energy Storage: Lithium, Lead or Both?

> Do you expect South
> America, China and Russia to behave differently if we give them a
> shiny new cartel opportunity?

There can not be a cartel. It'd have to be a cartel of the entire universe of battery tech.

The switching costs (to a different battery tech from lithium) are small enough that as soon as the lithium producers try to do anything funny, then car companies will just switch to a different battery tech.

The producers of lithium will know this, and so will always price their product not based on mining costs plus some reasonable markup. They will not enter into the business of mining lithium expecting that they will somehow be able to get an unfair premium.

The shortage argument does not make sense. The other arguments, I can't comment on.

On Nov 15 10:53 AM John Petersen wrote:

Alternative Energy Storage: Lithium, Lead or Both?

I think it's a pretty big mistake to assume that battery technology will not change over time. It's not like oil, where the infrastructure is dependent on it. I could upgrade to an air compression battery and still plug into the grid.

Lithium Ion could be used for the first 100M cars, and by the time we've produced that many and lithium ion reserves are running low, a newer and better battery tech may be available that uses different materials.

The shortage argument on Lithium Ion doesn't make sense at all.