Rob Viglione's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/298836/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/180345/comments?source=feed#comment-828242 828242 Thu, 31 Dec 2009 13:27:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/180345/comments?source=feed#comment-828241 828241 Thu, 31 Dec 2009 13:27:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159268/comments?source=feed#comment-664094 664094
My question is how historians will ultimately paint the picture of America's decline & fall? Will it be attributed to pollution, barbaric incursions, destructive emperors, etc.? Or will history remember the words of the few, like yourself, who have been predicting this for decades?]]> Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:29:08 -0400
My question is how historians will ultimately paint the picture of America's decline & fall? Will it be attributed to pollution, barbaric incursions, destructive emperors, etc.? Or will history remember the words of the few, like yourself, who have been predicting this for decades?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160140/comments?source=feed#comment-664006 664006
Just as business should not have power to use government to its advantage, so too should government be shackled in using its power to disturb free commerce.

Arguments for who should have the right to use what powers against whom always come down to unjust favoritism. Rather, we should be questioning whether or not these sorts of powers should even exist.

On Sep 06 08:07 AM EEB wrote:

> This article seems to state that the big, bad government has become
> increasingly powerful over the last forty years, and, despite the
> efforts of valiant capitalists, that's why the economy is so bad.
> What hogwash. Rockefeller and J.P. Morgan were two of the most successful
> capitalists ever, and they basically controlled the federal government.
> A look inside the federal government right now, and especially during
> the last thirty years reveals a very cozy relationship between corporations
> and government. These relationships exist across all industries
> from defense to agriculture.
>
> If you want real liberty, then you need to have a more adversarial
> relationship between the government and corporations. In fact, the
> more adversarial relationships that exist between government, business,
> the media, established religion, etc. the better off the average
> person is. When all the power is in the hands one part of our society:
> government or the corporations or the churches, the group in power
> becomes tyrannical.
>
> But the idea that a care-taker government could exist that only guards
> a few minimal individual liberties is a fantasy because such a weak
> government would be overwhelmed and corrupted by powerful business
> interests. This was already occurring during the last Bush administration
> because the regulation of important business activities, such as
> finance, was a joke.
>
> In other words, the libertarian rant that all evil comes from government
> is wrong, and it is usually either naive or disingenuous. There
> are many sources of evil in our world, and bad government is certainly
> one of them. But corporations, religion, evil individuals and many
> other factors can be sources of evil as well.]]> Sun, 06 Sep 2009 11:46:03 -0400
Just as business should not have power to use government to its advantage, so too should government be shackled in using its power to disturb free commerce.

Arguments for who should have the right to use what powers against whom always come down to unjust favoritism. Rather, we should be questioning whether or not these sorts of powers should even exist.

On Sep 06 08:07 AM EEB wrote:

> This article seems to state that the big, bad government has become
> increasingly powerful over the last forty years, and, despite the
> efforts of valiant capitalists, that's why the economy is so bad.
> What hogwash. Rockefeller and J.P. Morgan were two of the most successful
> capitalists ever, and they basically controlled the federal government.
> A look inside the federal government right now, and especially during
> the last thirty years reveals a very cozy relationship between corporations
> and government. These relationships exist across all industries
> from defense to agriculture.
>
> If you want real liberty, then you need to have a more adversarial
> relationship between the government and corporations. In fact, the
> more adversarial relationships that exist between government, business,
> the media, established religion, etc. the better off the average
> person is. When all the power is in the hands one part of our society:
> government or the corporations or the churches, the group in power
> becomes tyrannical.
>
> But the idea that a care-taker government could exist that only guards
> a few minimal individual liberties is a fantasy because such a weak
> government would be overwhelmed and corrupted by powerful business
> interests. This was already occurring during the last Bush administration
> because the regulation of important business activities, such as
> finance, was a joke.
>
> In other words, the libertarian rant that all evil comes from government
> is wrong, and it is usually either naive or disingenuous. There
> are many sources of evil in our world, and bad government is certainly
> one of them. But corporations, religion, evil individuals and many
> other factors can be sources of evil as well.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146893/comments?source=feed#comment-574867 574867
I am selling options and covering with long VIX. ]]> Sun, 05 Jul 2009 18:36:55 -0400
I am selling options and covering with long VIX. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146163/comments?source=feed#comment-568533 568533
This is collectivism at its best, but because we talk of monetary phenomenon that are so removed from individual affairs we forget the real implications of these actions. Debasing currency is akin to stealing savings and siphoning real output towards government use (or private banker use, in the current case). ]]> Tue, 30 Jun 2009 12:05:28 -0400
This is collectivism at its best, but because we talk of monetary phenomenon that are so removed from individual affairs we forget the real implications of these actions. Debasing currency is akin to stealing savings and siphoning real output towards government use (or private banker use, in the current case). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136868/comments?source=feed#comment-499023 499023
If anything, the debilitated state in which we now find our economy is evidence that government intervention and political economics do, indeed, have long term consequences.

It is a shame that the public's memory is so limited, and the economy so complex, that it is not easy to attribute direct consequence to each public policy. Too many politicians and bureaucrats get away without blame for decades of bad legislation and social engineering gone bad. ]]> Mon, 11 May 2009 11:53:59 -0400
If anything, the debilitated state in which we now find our economy is evidence that government intervention and political economics do, indeed, have long term consequences.

It is a shame that the public's memory is so limited, and the economy so complex, that it is not easy to attribute direct consequence to each public policy. Too many politicians and bureaucrats get away without blame for decades of bad legislation and social engineering gone bad. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136563/comments?source=feed#comment-497024 497024

On May 09 04:18 PM Timonomics wrote:

> I agree with Bill Gross of PIMCO, the Fed won't allow the long bond
> yield to get beyond the current 30-year mortgage rate of about 4.8%.
> That means the Fed will increase their treasury buy-back Ponzi scheme
> to well beyond the existing $300 billion either after or before the
> current deadline of August 31, 2009. If that is true, mortgage rates
> won't jump that much, but with a slow economic recovery, investors
> may jump at the fixed rate of close to 5% on long-term treasury bonds
> as opposed to the slippery, uncertain returns on equities.]]> Sat, 09 May 2009 17:11:39 -0400

On May 09 04:18 PM Timonomics wrote:

> I agree with Bill Gross of PIMCO, the Fed won't allow the long bond
> yield to get beyond the current 30-year mortgage rate of about 4.8%.
> That means the Fed will increase their treasury buy-back Ponzi scheme
> to well beyond the existing $300 billion either after or before the
> current deadline of August 31, 2009. If that is true, mortgage rates
> won't jump that much, but with a slow economic recovery, investors
> may jump at the fixed rate of close to 5% on long-term treasury bonds
> as opposed to the slippery, uncertain returns on equities.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133344/comments?source=feed#comment-481548 481548 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 16:23:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133406/comments?source=feed#comment-481018 481018
Now is the time to buy insurance and guard against that low-probabilty, but devastating event. ]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:59:52 -0400
Now is the time to buy insurance and guard against that low-probabilty, but devastating event. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133482/comments?source=feed#comment-480998 480998
I'm also long gold, and executing a similar market-neutral holding pattern, buying iron condors on GLD. Good income while the market trades sideways.]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:52:46 -0400
I'm also long gold, and executing a similar market-neutral holding pattern, buying iron condors on GLD. Good income while the market trades sideways.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133527/comments?source=feed#comment-480973 480973
Deals will be had with patience. Power is definitely back in the buyers' court here.

Something investors might want to consider is delving back into the single-family residential range. Yields are becoming more attractive and risk can be diversified through multiple acquisitions in diverse markets. ]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:45:52 -0400
Deals will be had with patience. Power is definitely back in the buyers' court here.

Something investors might want to consider is delving back into the single-family residential range. Yields are becoming more attractive and risk can be diversified through multiple acquisitions in diverse markets. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133551/comments?source=feed#comment-480879 480879

On Apr 28 10:48 AM kelm wrote:

> I think this is an indication that our Fed and Treasury have, over
> the past few decades, so distorted the markets by their practices
> (commission and omission) that we come to absurd conclusions like
> a -5% interest rate is needed. Engineers and scientists understand
> that when they get stupid results like that it indicates that the
> model is fundamentally wrong and needs to be fixed. When economists
> get numbers like that they publish a paper.]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:09:58 -0400

On Apr 28 10:48 AM kelm wrote:

> I think this is an indication that our Fed and Treasury have, over
> the past few decades, so distorted the markets by their practices
> (commission and omission) that we come to absurd conclusions like
> a -5% interest rate is needed. Engineers and scientists understand
> that when they get stupid results like that it indicates that the
> model is fundamentally wrong and needs to be fixed. When economists
> get numbers like that they publish a paper.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133551/comments?source=feed#comment-480871 480871

On Apr 28 06:27 AM User 353732 wrote:

> A -5% interest rate is, of course, the effective confiscation of
> savings at whim by the State. Why not a 100% income tax rate as well
> , so the citizen can then truly "belong" to the State, in a more
> perfect union? Might be a good idea to also take away our first born
> so the State may raise them and use them for its greater glory ,
> while ensuring our complete loyalty to the Cause( we need not be
> told what the Cause is; all we need to know there is one.......and
> it is much, much ,bigger than we are)
>
> With no savings and no income to distract and divide us, we can all
> then labor with clean hearts and selfless joy for the State, who
> in its great benevolence will take care us with wisdom and compassion
> . To spare us needless anxietyand effort, it will tell us what to
> think, say,and do.
> Let no one falsely accuse our beloved leaders of trying to revive
> the New Deal. Their vison is grander, more heroic. They want to restore
> the Old Feudalism.
> In an inspired moment, it has been revealed to them that all the
> errors, ills and calamaities of our age come directly from the Bill
> of Rights, the Constitution, The Declaration of Independence, the
> Mayflower Compact and ,of course, that original error, the Magna
> Carta Liberatum.
> Rejoice, King John will soon return.]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:08:18 -0400

On Apr 28 06:27 AM User 353732 wrote:

> A -5% interest rate is, of course, the effective confiscation of
> savings at whim by the State. Why not a 100% income tax rate as well
> , so the citizen can then truly "belong" to the State, in a more
> perfect union? Might be a good idea to also take away our first born
> so the State may raise them and use them for its greater glory ,
> while ensuring our complete loyalty to the Cause( we need not be
> told what the Cause is; all we need to know there is one.......and
> it is much, much ,bigger than we are)
>
> With no savings and no income to distract and divide us, we can all
> then labor with clean hearts and selfless joy for the State, who
> in its great benevolence will take care us with wisdom and compassion
> . To spare us needless anxietyand effort, it will tell us what to
> think, say,and do.
> Let no one falsely accuse our beloved leaders of trying to revive
> the New Deal. Their vison is grander, more heroic. They want to restore
> the Old Feudalism.
> In an inspired moment, it has been revealed to them that all the
> errors, ills and calamaities of our age come directly from the Bill
> of Rights, the Constitution, The Declaration of Independence, the
> Mayflower Compact and ,of course, that original error, the Magna
> Carta Liberatum.
> Rejoice, King John will soon return.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133565/comments?source=feed#comment-480856 480856
I feel more comfortable shorting when few are doing so. ]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:04:05 -0400
I feel more comfortable shorting when few are doing so. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133573/comments?source=feed#comment-480837 480837 Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:57:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133170/comments?source=feed#comment-478331 478331 Sun, 26 Apr 2009 19:09:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133173/comments?source=feed#comment-478326 478326
Whether or not we actually experience inflation in the near term will depend on continued credit destruction. Long-term, however, the Fed's inability to use its increasingly junk portfolio to soak up excess money supply virtually guarantees inflation.

The long bond (TLT) is the best short given enhanced sensitivity to inflation.]]> Sun, 26 Apr 2009 19:06:47 -0400
Whether or not we actually experience inflation in the near term will depend on continued credit destruction. Long-term, however, the Fed's inability to use its increasingly junk portfolio to soak up excess money supply virtually guarantees inflation.

The long bond (TLT) is the best short given enhanced sensitivity to inflation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131674/comments?source=feed#comment-469943 469943
I wonder if our current understanding of inflation and its variables is only legitimate within some fixed constraints. When conditions exceed those barriers we may be looking at a different governing model.

For instance, I would find it difficult to believe that Zimbabwe experienced over-capacity in manufacturing throughout its period of hyperinflation.

Just some early morning musings...]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 13:07:06 -0400
I wonder if our current understanding of inflation and its variables is only legitimate within some fixed constraints. When conditions exceed those barriers we may be looking at a different governing model.

For instance, I would find it difficult to believe that Zimbabwe experienced over-capacity in manufacturing throughout its period of hyperinflation.

Just some early morning musings...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131715/comments?source=feed#comment-469926 469926
Just because local and municipal governments overextended themselves with inefficient union-driven infrastructure does not mean it created stable, healthy conditions which should be artificially perpetuated.

Bad policies eventually meat reality. Local, municipal, and state governments have been run so poorly in many areas that they are due for collapse. To perpetuate bad economic-social practices by extorting national taxpayers to spread capital to problem areas will only delay the inevitable.

Reality always wins in the end, despite human arrogance. We cannot control Nature. ]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:59:55 -0400
Just because local and municipal governments overextended themselves with inefficient union-driven infrastructure does not mean it created stable, healthy conditions which should be artificially perpetuated.

Bad policies eventually meat reality. Local, municipal, and state governments have been run so poorly in many areas that they are due for collapse. To perpetuate bad economic-social practices by extorting national taxpayers to spread capital to problem areas will only delay the inevitable.

Reality always wins in the end, despite human arrogance. We cannot control Nature. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131737/comments?source=feed#comment-469916 469916

On Apr 20 07:33 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> Sorry, but It's fallacious to call this a 'bubble' when PE ratios
> are still very low. If the S&P 500 had a PE ratio of 20 it would
> be in the 1,400 range. Obama won't let GM go bankrupt because he
> needs union votes in 2012. However, the failure of GM wouldn't have
> negative ramifications. And what if the economic recovery does come.
> Then what?]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:55:16 -0400

On Apr 20 07:33 AM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> Sorry, but It's fallacious to call this a 'bubble' when PE ratios
> are still very low. If the S&P 500 had a PE ratio of 20 it would
> be in the 1,400 range. Obama won't let GM go bankrupt because he
> needs union votes in 2012. However, the failure of GM wouldn't have
> negative ramifications. And what if the economic recovery does come.
> Then what?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131695/comments?source=feed#comment-469909 469909 Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:51:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131685/comments?source=feed#comment-469897 469897

On Apr 20 12:30 PM joes wrote:

> Earnings are down 30%, but the market is still down more than that,
> is the bear over? By definition yes it is, but if companies don't
> come to grips with the creative destruction of several business models,
> auto, media and housing being the largest and most obvious.
>
> Obama is trying to get people thinking about business off of wall
> street and back to remembering that the US remains the largest manufacturer
> in the world, mostly of high margin products. Sending students to
> engineering school instead of business school is the shift that we
> need.]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:46:11 -0400

On Apr 20 12:30 PM joes wrote:

> Earnings are down 30%, but the market is still down more than that,
> is the bear over? By definition yes it is, but if companies don't
> come to grips with the creative destruction of several business models,
> auto, media and housing being the largest and most obvious.
>
> Obama is trying to get people thinking about business off of wall
> street and back to remembering that the US remains the largest manufacturer
> in the world, mostly of high margin products. Sending students to
> engineering school instead of business school is the shift that we
> need.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131752/comments?source=feed#comment-469882 469882
How fair is it to legitimate short traders who spot great trades when public funds are committed to unravel his bet? ]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:33:13 -0400
How fair is it to legitimate short traders who spot great trades when public funds are committed to unravel his bet? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131753/comments?source=feed#comment-469845 469845 Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:19:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131757/comments?source=feed#comment-469837 469837
To think we can trust public "servants" blindly with allocating society's capital resources will lead to worse systemic risks than blamed on hedge funds.

One could make the argument that the most egregious systemic risks were initiated and perpetuated by government, i.e. secondary mortgage market, for starters!]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 12:16:10 -0400
To think we can trust public "servants" blindly with allocating society's capital resources will lead to worse systemic risks than blamed on hedge funds.

One could make the argument that the most egregious systemic risks were initiated and perpetuated by government, i.e. secondary mortgage market, for starters!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131594/comments?source=feed#comment-468939 468939
Long options, short VIX is a good idea too. I suppose I come at this from the perspective of a short options guy...my regular MO is to short options and long VIX.

But you're right...direct options matching your portfolio exposure would be a better insurance play.


On Apr 19 01:01 PM MarkitWacha wrote:

> I disagree. The VIX is based on the volatility premium for stock
> options. You're mixing apples and oranges.
>
> The correct way to have portfolio insurance is to buy options as
> a hedge. In fact, you could potentially buy options, and then short
> the VIX as a percentage of the options to make extra cash. You would
> do this if you wanted a perfect hedge, and you didn't want to put
> capital at risk going long on volatility.]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 18:58:05 -0400
Long options, short VIX is a good idea too. I suppose I come at this from the perspective of a short options guy...my regular MO is to short options and long VIX.

But you're right...direct options matching your portfolio exposure would be a better insurance play.


On Apr 19 01:01 PM MarkitWacha wrote:

> I disagree. The VIX is based on the volatility premium for stock
> options. You're mixing apples and oranges.
>
> The correct way to have portfolio insurance is to buy options as
> a hedge. In fact, you could potentially buy options, and then short
> the VIX as a percentage of the options to make extra cash. You would
> do this if you wanted a perfect hedge, and you didn't want to put
> capital at risk going long on volatility.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131515/comments?source=feed#comment-467781 467781
So far NASDAQ seems to be bubbling, treasuries already have, precious metals and AG...still waiting!]]> Sat, 18 Apr 2009 16:22:27 -0400
So far NASDAQ seems to be bubbling, treasuries already have, precious metals and AG...still waiting!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131518/comments?source=feed#comment-467775 467775
I'm skeptical of the spare capacity argument for inflation, however. Inflation can be a monetary phenomenon extricated from capacity issues, just look towards 1920's Germany and Zimbabwe...neither had, or have, capacity issues. ]]> Sat, 18 Apr 2009 16:11:58 -0400
I'm skeptical of the spare capacity argument for inflation, however. Inflation can be a monetary phenomenon extricated from capacity issues, just look towards 1920's Germany and Zimbabwe...neither had, or have, capacity issues. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131519/comments?source=feed#comment-467774 467774 Sat, 18 Apr 2009 16:03:54 -0400