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  • Is A Rebound Expected For Apache In The Near Term? [View article]
    INCREASING production at lower prices is not really good news because costs go up too obviously and margins get hit. Selling a scarce product that you have to dig at substantial costs when prices collapsed is not really smart.
    Much better for this company to reduce efforts and save resources for when prices are up again.

    Shale producers costs I think are much higher than investors/analysts/com... are expecting/projecting/c...
    Cash flows have been negative forever even on Shale companies that are more mature.
    Oct 27 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources' Recent Share Price Dip Creates A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    The big risk on all these producers is the usual suspect: making money.
    Are they making money? Capex higher than EBITDA and constant need of financing....Are they actually making money at these oil prices?
    Reserves are a great indication of future production capacity but they need to be economic to be valuable.
    I still do not understand how can a company like that be valued 8x EBITDA which is kind of meaningless if you have to spend huge capex every year.
    What if OIL goes to 70?
    IRR of the wells looks good according to companies presentations but so far no one is making money, they increase production and capex , they spend more capex than revenues! And increase production by 20/30%??
    CLR LTM revenues 3.9BLN , CAPEX 4BLN. EBITDA 3 BLN. Does it sound sustainable?
    One question: If they stop "investing capex " and only manage the wells that are in production now what kind of cash flows can they generate? And for how many years?
    Why do they want to increase production if the oil price is now going down? Isn't it better to keep the oil underground rather than burning cash flows every year ?
    Oct 2 06:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Focus Graphite Is A Winner: My Conversation With President/COO Don Baxter [View article]
    Thanks
    Sep 25 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Focus Graphite Is A Winner: My Conversation With President/COO Don Baxter [View article]
    Good article. But would like to have an idea of Valuation.
    Mkt cap is 50M CAD now. If they raise 170m $ the enterprise value will be 250m ish CAD. Any idea of how much could be worth IF they start producing graphite and all goes according to plan?
    Sep 25 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Silver Wheaton Really The Best Way To Play Silver? [View article]
    AH AH AH AH AH AH AH AH AH ....What about IF Silver prices go down a bit ?
    Who is the winner?
    The other companies you mentioned could go bankrupt....ZEROED.
    It's a god analysis but honestly is not a positive to have a high cash cost to extract the metal...sorry but when I asses investments I take a look at the risks of being wrong too not just wheat happens in case I am right and things go in my favour like in this case Silver price going up.
    OF course if you have costs at 20 you have exponential growth of earnings from ZERO to something!!!
    Sep 22 11:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tag Oil: Cheapest Valuations Since 2009 [View article]
    I would like to understand what happened from end 2012/beginning 2013 and also what happened since they raised money at 4 $ ish.
    Reserves must have not changed. I think mr market was hoping for a raise in production that never materialized because the new "discoveries" have been offset but a sharp unexpected decline rates on old wells ?
    Or maybe mr market was expecting some positive news from the more risky acreage (East Coast for example) ?
    Sep 22 06:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tag Oil: Cheapest Valuations Since 2009 [View article]
    Hi William , I am not saying you made mistakes. I am just saying I have been watching this opportunity and never bought because of my concerns that the company is barely increasing production.
    I have been commenting about my concerns even in your last article (good I did not buy at 2.75 anyway) already, from company management and presentations:
    * May 2013 "TAG's current production – entirely from the shallow Miocene section within the Cheal and Sidewinder fields – varies between 2,500 to 3,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("BOE"), with an average baseline production of 2,700 BOE's per day over the past ten days. Baseline production will increase as remaining shut-in wells are brought on stream, as well as any success arising from the ten new wells planned to be drilled by year's end which could materially increase this production figure."
    NOW August 2014 still 1700-2000 Barrels per day!!
    DECLINE: Honestly I did not spend a lot of time on it but if I remember properly some of the Cheal wells declined massively vs last year too. I do not recall where i noticed but must have been on the last quarterly detailed reports on Sedar.

    I am also considering that the recent "easy" Cheal exploration is also starting to be less successful after 20 or so successful wells we have seen some dry ones on the JV with EW petroleum. Who knows if they already went to exploit the low hanging fruits in the Taranaki.... I don't certainly know and more dry wells are surely a big risk here too.
    Sep 17 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tag Oil: Cheapest Valuations Since 2009 [View article]
    They do not really generate cash flows! They had to raise equity last year because they are spending on capex. They generate "operating cash flows" but they have also to spend capex to keep production because the decline rates must be relatively steep.
    Sep 16 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tag Oil: Cheapest Valuations Since 2009 [View article]
    They are not generating cash flows. They had to raise equity last year to fund the drilling capex. They generate some operating cash flows but it gets spent on capex and that exactly why I am still watching : in order to keep production barely unchanged they have to spend capex because of high decline rates on old wells I assume.
    Sep 16 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tag Oil: Cheapest Valuations Since 2009 [View article]
    I still do not buy.
    1) EV is not a great measure of valuation as some cash will be spent for drilling and some has to be kept to keep a company operating.
    2) Ev/Bopd looks "cheap" but very difficult to compare to other explorer driller. Every company has its story behind and its projects forward. Tag oil so far has been barely keeping its production and not really growing against expectation of solid growth only 1 and half years ago.
    3) I am still a bit scared by the very steep decline rates of some of its wells and that's why growth has been disappointing: they keep on drilling with decent success rate (even if recently they had a few dry holes on the JV with East West Petroleum) but production is just barely keeping flat.
    Sep 16 04:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Callon Petroleum Expands Permian Footprint With Core Midland Basin Acquisition; Stock Will Expand Too [View article]
    Thank you Michael
    Sep 12 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Callon Petroleum Expands Permian Footprint With Core Midland Basin Acquisition; Stock Will Expand Too [View article]
    Thanks Michael. Yes you did point out that sooner or later they will have to show cash flows. My concern is not about CPE is about the whole sector, it looks in a bulle to me. When no one cares if a company makes real money and they just keep on issuing debt to "grow" revenues.
    And you can see from Bloomberg Estimates that they will keep on spending 250m per year in capex when revenues are not even 200m.
    I have the feeling that shale operators to really make money need OIL price decently above 100$ lets say 110/120$.
    Sep 11 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Callon Petroleum Expands Permian Footprint With Core Midland Basin Acquisition; Stock Will Expand Too [View article]
    Nice article and I also think that the company finance strategy is appropriate in order not to burden the B/S with too much debt.
    I never bought CPE because I am not very confident about the huge capex plans that each of these Shale producers are engaging.
    CPE revenues 130m Capex 200m...They will increase production but also capex.
    I still do not understand if/when they will make real money/cash flows.
    IRR per well looks good on paper but i am not sure about the decline rates.
    Would be nice to have an idea what kind of cash flows could produce if they stopped growth capex. Sometimes the most important thing is to make money , not to grow revenues/production. Unfortunately once you dig oil out is gone and just increasing production for the sake of it and burning cash could cause huge problems.
    Looking at bloomberg estimates for 2014 i see Revenues 163m , capex 250m . 2015? 242m Revenues 274m Capex.
    Looks like we are in a bubble.....
    Sep 11 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla's Heavily-Promoted Shares Could Prove To Be Fool's Gold [View article]
    Lots of TESLA LONGS!!
    Sep 11 06:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla's Heavily-Promoted Shares Could Prove To Be Fool's Gold [View article]
    Did you ask same question to someone that shorted Juniper 20% below the highs?
    Sep 11 06:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
158 Comments
125 Likes