djk!

One Year Later and the Worst Is Still to Come

Peter says,
"But anybody who read the commentary on this website a year ago will know that it was saying exactly the same thing again a year ago, and those who chose instead to trust their professional advisers are still counting the cost.

Down will come equities, commodities including oil and gold, and real estate. Bonds should have a last hurrah and the dollar rally. So why still hold some gold? This is a hedge with a limited downside and the asset class of the future."

have you really been saying this stuff for a year? I thought you started on 4/13/09. You and your socket puppets missed the greatest rally in a dozen years. So yeah, why not short the market? You advised to short the market back on 4/13, boy! what great advice. Do you have people that actually pay you for your advice? Oh well, your rating continues to drop so people really are not all that dumb. Soon you'll be out of the top 100 and just a has been. The *suckers* have made a lot in the mean time.

Short ETFs Jump, Confirming the Coming Market Correction

Peter,
But what really counts, your ranking, has taken a HUGE drop. You *used to be* ~43 or so, dropping like a sack of lead to what? ~58? That's over 25%.
Does the significance of that escape you? Time to create some more sock puppets, Peter.

Start of the Shorting Season?

I wonder how those short positions that people put in on 4/14/09 after you declared an end to the *sucker's* rally are looking now? Ya think the market will "correct" enough for them to just make back the dough, much less a little profit? Hey Peter, predict this, Is it going to snow in Dubia on 12/25/09? Get it right and you might want to consider being a weatherman.

This Is Still Just a Rally

yup. your are finally correct on something. this *is* still just a rally. close to 4 months after your first call of a top. And the correction that is ahead might not put the indexes that much lower than where you did call that top. Which means, in a strange way, that *your* correction will never happen. all the "old hands" you have loved to refer to in the last 4 months must be really pissed off at you for advising them to sit it out. good thing is, anybody who did decide to short the markets when you called the top, if they have not bailed yet, may end up getting close to most of their money back. meanwhile, what's up with gold and silver? oh, that's right, not much at all.

Final Spike in the Bear Market Rally?

Peter says:
"To say that stock markets have gotten ahead of reality is just to state the blindingly obvious, and older hands have already begun to exit this market."

what has happened in the markets *is* reality. and at the 90 day mark since your first call of a top and an end to the rally you once again repeat the mantra. none of the "old hands" seemingly listened to you back on 4/13/09 and I doubt many are listening to you now. I mean, how would you treat a fellow that talked you out of participating in the greatest rally of the last 18 months? and your lackluster gold has done *nothing* in the mean time. then again maybe it is time for your losing streak to end. who knows? certainly not you.

Why the Bear Market Bottom Is Not Yet In

Peter,
You seem to out of touch and confused because a simple glance at a year chart for S&P, DOW, Nasdaq plainly shows the 2 most recent bottoms where in March 09 and Nov. 08, there was no bottom in December. I suggest you find something else to talk about if this is the best you can do.

13-Week Rally Proves Unlucky

Peter says,
"Closing positions and waiting for another opportunity to buy quality stocks at lower levels looks obvious."
But this is exactly what you were saying on April 13th and anyone who believed you then lost out on nine additional weeks of rally. on 4/13 S&P was ~869, in the meantime reaching ~950, and the DOW was ~8057 on 4/13, in the meantime as high as ~8800. so a full 2 months after the first warning call, and only 1/3 of the way into the rally you called a top, now 2 months later after a continued rally you call a top again. Like they say, if you repeat the mantra eventually you might get it right but only after being wrong for so long. Be interesting to know how many of your readers thought you knew what you were talking about on 4/13 and sold, being only 1/3rd of the way into your "suckers rally", like someone said back on 4/13, the real suckers are the ones who stayed on the sidelines.

What's a Better Buy: Gold or Green Shoots?

the green shoots of today were the seeds planted in early March that took hold and grew, that production (i.e. profits) has already taken place. so the real question is, should you have tried to grow something or should you have bought something established and hoped it increased in value. the people who bought the seeds now have the green shoots with which to do as they please. the people who bought gold at the same time have very little to show for it at the moment. the simple fact is equities beat the hell out of the PM's over the past 2 months.

How Low Can Global Economies Go?

One other reality I would like to make you aware of is that since 3/14/09 my portfolio has increased in value by 10,000US. My gold coins have seen extremely modest gains in the same time frame. Point of saying that is if I had taken your advice of a "soon" end to the rally and bailed the equities I would have been out some dough. I'll just end my comments by saying definitions vary but in my mind "soon" is not over 30 days. Your mileage may vary. Good Luck

How Low Can Global Economies Go?

I completely agree with you that the economies of the past are just that, over. Perhaps it is best to say that reduced expectations might make for a happier outcome. Is this so bad? I think not. For the most part the overall economy in the United States through the year 2008 has been an overblown debt laden happening. So, I think that is over. And I do not see a problem with that as long as rational people expect the numbers to be lower for awhile. For me it is not a particularly bad thing that retail spending in the U.S. has declined. It is just a matter of getting used to what to expect.

How Will Gold Perform in the Coming Equity Crash?

Yawn. The coming end to the suckers rally is now approaching it's 2nd month. It was 4/13 when it was gonna end *soon*. Oh, and gold was going to 1,000US and then to 1500US as of about a month ago. What has happened in that month? The rally continued and gold went nowhere, basically. Stop sleeping in the sun, Peter.

Will 'Bad Bank' Stocks Become Worthless Like GM?

I'm not certain that a couple regional banks I've done the last 3 months are going to go worthless but I can say that the last 3 months with STI has brought a couple good gains, the first bundle sold a month or so back brought 41%, the bundle sold today brought 31% and a bundle of RF bought in early Feb. brought 60 % today. My *guess* was that today might prove to be a peak for both RF and STI.
I still hold a bundle of RF @ cost basis of $6US and I'm not for sure that one will recover. Point is for a certain time window these 2 regionals have provided some decent gains. Right now it seems that both these banks may fall into the questionable category so I decided to cut most of it. Time will tell. They both could resume their recent levels or they both could move forward additionally. Either way the past opportunity was there and did fullfill some good returns.

Silver: The New Magic Bullet for Investors?

Peter,
When you say "Equity rallies in a bear market are temporary and easy to misjudge.", I think you are correct. Way to easy for you to misjudge. And life itself is also temporary. So leave it at that. Meanwhile, while this temp equities rally has helped people regain principle or create a whole new small fortune, the precious metals folks have pretty much gone nowhere in the same period of time. Then again, you are correct that gold has been a good *store of value* over the last year. But a 4.25% CD probably would have been a better store of value during the same time frame. And should silver hit $35US to $50US there most likely will be a large sell off that will send it right back to the high teens. Pretty much the same with gold if it reaches 1500US, the sell-off will send it right back to sub $1000US. At that point you can start your predictions all over again.

Sell Bonds and Buy Gold

thanks for the update on the continuing (it's been 2 weeks, so far) end to the rally. when you quite notably called the end is coming *soon* on 4/13 the DOW was ~8057, on 4/28 it was ~ 8016, a drop of 40 points. Likewise the S&P was ~858 on 4/13 and ~855 on 4/28. A drop of 3 points in 2 weeks. Meanwhile, gold has gone from ~890 on 4/13 to ~890 on 4/28. It was wonderful to get the heads up on the action 2 weeks ago. It helps to know what *will* happen "soon" in order to make the big money plays.

Will the Stress Test Seal Ken Lewis's Fate?

I'd to see Ken Lewis stay and keep saying over and over again that BoA does not need new capital for as long as he can. When he realizes BoA *does* need to raise new capital of course it will be too late for BoA. Mr. Lewis would then have turned out to be the last nail in the coffin for BoA. THAT is how history should remember and write of Mr. Ken Lewis. It's over, Kenny. Good thing you sold the Porsche when you did.