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The Real Problem with Washington's Jobs Policy

The REAL problem is that the administration is dedicated to CLASS WARFARE, and punitive retribution on any successful entrepreneurs "because it's fair" (Obama direct quote). The consequence of this is that with ~50% of new enterprises being formed by immigrants, it takes little time for them to find an economy that is more fiscally competitive, and while the OB and his posse of photo-op freddies (none of whom have ever created a self-supporting job (one that develops positive contribution margin))are getting face time on Bloomberg and talking trash with Maria on CNBC, real-job creation is finding more fertile fiscal domiciles (note the IDA Ireland and Macedonia commercials right on Bloomberg every day...they're ready to deal), and it's hard to visit an entrepreneur group at Stanford or Santa Clara U without easily meeting reps from far east countries eager to pitch their homelands as open for business.

Since a majority of good new jobs are being created by entrepreneurs with non-US birth certificates, it's not clear why these jobs won't increasingly wander abroad, and only the "fries with that / here or to go" jobs that can't be offshored will remain.

On the positive side...the people DID vote for Obama, and once in a while a close encounter with the consequences of one's actions can lead to improvement. Peter Schwartz (Art of the Long View, p74) talks about the Japanese concept of optimism as RAKKANTEKI, embracing the challenges that give life meaning. Americans are about to embark on a protracted exploration of RAKKANTEKI.

Domo arigato, gaijen!

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

Techzone 12 is right. The debt is being transferred from the banks to the public balance sheet...which is fair enough, since it was the euphoric delusion of "unlimited abundance" persistently preached by LBJ and others all the way to BHO, Dodd, Frank et al, that created the conventional wisdom that CRA, BS mortgages etc were fine, and then both coerced and incentivized the banks to facilitate the toxic debt, creating both the bubble and its implosion. Rubin and Bill Clinton are the prime perps to recognize here, both for the 1993 restrictions on corporate deductability of income which unleashed the cult of "performance-based compensation", and use of the Boston FED "analyses" on redlining to pressure banks into lowered-standards-unde...

Events have consequences. Marketing master Ted Levitt suggests "The future belongs to people who see possibilities before they become obvious." In the present fiscal toxemia, the names Kyle Bass, Michael Burry, Steve Eisman, and Jeff Greene are among those who recognized the dissonance, foresaw the meltdown, and ignored the conventional "wisdom" while positioning themselves to score billionaire-level victories. The ongoing transfer of toxic costs to the public balance sheet is the price of 45 years of delusional romanticism. As long as our "leaders" ignore this point, there is no reason to take them seriously in anything. Just figure out what they're peddling, and SHORT them, ruthlessly.

On this same "possibilities before they become obvious" theme, CareerBuilder has a 3/09 survey saying 6 of 10 upcoming retirees will take years to recoup losses in their 201Ks, my estimate is an extra 4 years in the workforce, on average, for the next several years. Rough guess, an extra 2.4M jobs needed, maybe more, as this becomes a new norm...likely losers - the college grads in classes of 2009-2012, whose potential employers won't have 2.4M vacancies to fill each year. "Normally", unemployment is a lagging indicator, but a mass boomer postponement has potential to put a whole new spin on "change we can believe in". Read about it in TIME, March 2011, or later.



On Apr 13 02:02 PM techzone12 wrote:

> It's called a sucker's rally, because it sucks you in...
> What we are witnessing is the transfer of debt from the big banks'
> balance sheets to the taxpayer. So all of a sudden, the banks are
> making record "profit"!. Congrats!. It's time to distribute new bonuses!.
> Enjoy the ride!
>

Cramer's Call: Another Rally Top Indicator?

drbob66 is right. So is StoneFoxCapital.

Greg is talking smack. DJI hit 9955 on Oct 6, crossing 10,000, headed south. It hit 6547 on Mar 9, after other lows on Oct 10, Oct 27, Nov 20.

Greg owes Cramer an apology. Or top Jim's 14yr X 24% net return in his hedge fund.

Whichever, good luck, mate.




On Apr 10 07:39 AM drbob66 wrote:

> "On Monday October 6, Cramer went on the today show and told people
> to sell any stock money they might need in the next five years. The
> market bottomed that Friday."
>
> Huh? The market bottomed on October 10th? Really?