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rogerlig

rogerlig
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  • The World Health Organization calls for tighter regs on e-cigarettes [View news story]
    I think the goal is to reduce tobacco caused disease. E-cigs have no tobacco, and so no tobacco by-products (tars). You'd think we'd want to *encourage* e-cigs.
    Aug 26 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Still Has Some Heavy Lifting To Do With Its Lightweight Aluminum Business [View article]
    I'm a bit confused by AA's valuation. Let's say they earn even more, maybe $0.20 per share, $0.80 per year.

    Even at that earnings rate, with little prospect of real growth, how can a multiple of more than, say, 10 be justified?

    I like, and buy AA when it's in single digits. Just looks like, at $15, there a little unwarranted exuberance going on here.
    Jul 9 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Still Has Some Heavy Lifting To Do With Its Lightweight Aluminum Business [View article]
    I've been a follower of aluminum for years, and I have to agree, downstream isn't where we want to be.

    Take note of Kaiser Aluminum (KALU). It exited primary aluminum some years ago, and since has been concentrating on finished goods and engineered products.

    AA may be too big to be as nimble as KALU, but I think the direction makes a lot of sense.
    Jul 8 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple cut to Sell at Standpoint over moral reasons [View news story]
    This is the same analyst who wants us to sell PM for 'moral' reasons (his grandfather dies of lung cancer). Let's hope none of his relatives are hit by cars, or he'll have us shorting GM, too.

    Just nuts.
    Jan 6 08:15 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC) is downgraded to Neutral at Citigroup which cites Asian checks and PC unit growth falling 1%. That's outstanding analysis after the stock has fallen more than 20% since May, and following the company's downside guidance last week. Shares -0.7% premarket. [View news story]
    Citigroup downgraded EXC yesterday, too, after a drop of 20%. Less than useless after the decline has already happened.
    Sep 13 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Muppet Of The Day: UBS [View article]
    Sure, the underwriter was stabilizing the stock at $38 all day on the first day of trading, and at $36 on the second day. It's hard to see how they could have lost more than $2 per share, no matter how much of an overage they had.
    Jun 8 06:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be Surprised if We See a 31% Correction [View article]
    Correlation being confused with causation?
    May 21 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nassim Taleb on What Should Really Worry Us About the 'Flash Crash' [View article]
    Taleb is great at recognizing undervalued probability plays (strictly math) to buy plenty of out of the money options in the expectation that *one* will hit and cover the losses on all the others. He's hoping for Black Swans.

    But this is totally math. Does he have any record *at all* in making predictions? His books say he avoid them and plays probabilities exclusively.

    So here we have a math guru who's now qualified to forecast?
    May 17 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deciphering the Record Extremes of the Yield Curve [View article]
    Generally, the Fed determines short rates, and market demand is responsible for long rates. But currently, the Fed is paying interest on reserves, so banks are leaving funds ordinarily lent out long term, on deposit with the Fed. Which makes me wonder if the current yield curve is being "engineered" to look better than history would suggest.
    Feb 28 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Stop Trading - Peabody Is in Freefall (3/2/09) [View article]
    Cramer has to come up with SOMETHING every day, so he generally goes with the flow and makes up rationales (often with some good justification) as he goes along. Yes, he changes his mind frequently (he wanted to buy GM at 25, as it was going to 50, as I recall, HOG at 60, WB at 40, all in the last year or two).

    The truth is that we're kind of in uncharted territory here. In forty years, neither I nor Cramer has experienced the kind of free fall that we've seen in the past six months, so we're all kind of playing it by ear at the moment.
    Mar 3 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferreds Get Crushed Again [View article]
    A lot of the preferreds in the index funds are bank issues. There's a strong fear that, as part of the TARP, the gov't will restrict dividends, including those on preferred stock. Hence, the big decline.


    On Jan 25 08:41 AM dealjunkie wrote:

    > These charts are interesting, b ut they do not demonstrate that preferreds
    > have been hurt more than any other asset class. IF this is true,
    > is there a plausible explanation?
    Jan 26 06:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harley Davidson Tightens Credit Distribution [View article]
    As a recently retired Boomer, I've noticed another demographic: new retirees who are just now embarking on their motorcycle careers. If HOG would target this group, instead of the egregiously overweight and deep in debt constituency, they might find a whole new market segment.

    But I agree that, on the whole, an expensive consumer extravagance justs isn't the right product to be selling today.

    Is the dividend safe of HOG? They seem to be earning well in excess of it. It may become an income play at this point.

    rogerlig
    Nov 18 07:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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