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  • 10.6% Dividend Annaly Capital Management's Calm Attitude May Be Right For This Environment  [View article]
    NLY - Timing - Past three years, the RSI(14) levels above 70 (over bought) and below 30 (over sold) have provided a "reasonably good"* indicator to take profits off the table and initiate or add to positions. *defined as so far it worked every time.
    Current RSI(14) value is 51.23 - precisely in the "very neutral" state.
    Might as well look elsewhere if expecting any big move up or down.
    For example, the RSI(14) of RWT is currently at 73.98 - above the 70 level - profit taking might be in order.
    Nov 10, 2014. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atara Biotherapeutics: Ripe To Buy Leading Up To Quiet Period Expiration  [View article]
    You were not long prior to the IPO
    Are you now long ATRA? at what prices?
    Which of the Underwriters are expected to come out with initial reports
    I do not have the offering doc
    What are the names of the VC investors and
    to what extent did they get out on the IPO and
    until what date are they restricted to hold current positions
    and based on public records which of the relatively well known early (VC and Founder) stage biotech "scientific community" investor names* now - or since the IPO - publicly known investors in ATRA ?

    * Names such as Including those, for example only, who have been long time investors in stocks such as FATE, BIND, ALNY, ISIS, CERU, GEVA.
    Nov 9, 2014. 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • PGF Vs. SPFF: 2 Preferred Stock ETFs Compete On Their Merits  [View article]
    I use the following to compare the Average Annual total Returns between two different securities - stocks or ETFs:
    It would be interesting to compare each of the Inception to date AATRs of all the preferreds.
    Are there any ETFs which hold any and all preferreds but esclude all financial preferreds?
    Are there any ETFs which hold only Convertible Preferreds?
    How do those preferred ETfs which hold only International preferreds or are GlobalPreferred ETFsw which have both USA and international preferreds?
    Nov 8, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Rate Sensitive ETFs To Extend Their Lead Due To Housing Uncertainty  [View article]
    To what extent will this also influence these past 12 months of "soft" stock prices of the rate sensitive BDC sector. BIZD, BSCS, BDCL. etc. ??
    Oct 29, 2014. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Class Performance Since The October 15th Short-Term Low  [View article]
    What can you learn - USING hindsight?
    During the last month - or at any time - let's assume you were looking to invest/"allocate" dollars to current or new sectors which you - based on fundamental research valuations - believed would be good to add to during this past month.
    IN HINDSIGHT, this article points out the best sectors in which the stocks making up the QQQ, IJH, XLE, XLB and XLV sectors.
    If - a month ago, you had been monitoring all the charts of all the sectors, you would have noticed that the companies which were part of the QQQ (OTC High tech) and IJH (Mid cap) and the companies in the sectors - XLE, XLB and XLV -
    were each approaching and closing at or below their RSI 30 levels.

    It also appears that selecting those individual companies which were in these sectors AND deemed "fundamentally sound and of good value" and were also falling in price to create RSI levels at or below RSI 30 would be good candidates to begin accumulation of a position.

    The charts of any and all stocks can be reviewed to determine the extent to which these "at or below RSI 30" levels provided a good indicator of the time and price at which shares were being "over sold" and thereby providing good values.

    SharpCharts service provides this RSI(14) indicator within each of their charts. I am sure other services also do the same - but perhaps in an easier format to peruse a long list of monitored stock prices with a column which shows RSI levels. If anyone knows of such a service, it might be of interest to other readers.
    Oct 23, 2014. 03:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing The Best Dividend ETFs  [View article]
    As a PS to my earlier 11:29 am posting:
    If one were to have invested $10,000 in each of the ETFs mentioned in the article and the above comments on 1/3/2007 and assuming the DRIP plan to enable "brainless" compounding of reinvested dividends, the following would have been the ending values as of 10/17/2014 including the indicated Average Annual Total Returns - AATR - for each.
    VWO $12,857 3.28%
    DVY $13,340 3.77%
    VNQ $13,593 4.02%
    VYM $15,502 5.79%
    SDY $15,605 5.88%
    VTI $16,129 6.33%
    VIG $16,200 6.39%
    Although the difference between the ending $ values of the first 7 listed above is
    $3,343, and the AATRs a difference of only 3.11%, this is a significant (33.43%) difference in return on the original $10,000 investment.
    Thus, using a portfolio approach of selecting dividend paying ETFs focusing on dividend paying sectors including a handful of each of the following U.S. Based as well as international based Equity Dividend Growth, REITs, Business Development companies and other fixed income securities makes for a reasonable investment plan
    The following are the ending values of an $10,000 investment dated from the inception of the respective funds and thus are NOT comparable to the above mentioned funds in existence on 1/1/2007.

    HDV $15,988 3/31/11 14.3%
    BND $14,231 4/10/07 4.80%
    JNK $15,424 12/4/07 6.51%
    VEA $9,841 7/26/07 -0.22%
    BKLN $11,360 3/21/11 3.63%

    Calculator used is
    Oct 19, 2014. 05:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing The Best Dividend ETFs  [View article]
    Using the DRIP calculator which provides the Average Annual Total Return assuming reinvestment of dividends, the following are the results based on a start date of 1/3/2007 a year before the top of the equity markets
    Symbol AATR
    VIG 6.39%
    SDY 5.88%
    VYM 5.79
    DVY 3.77%

    Hard to believe that anyone selecting common stocks or ETFs to provide them with dividends as an important component for long term total returns does not use the DRIP to optimize this important power of compounding taught in the first grade of investing.
    Oct 19, 2014. 11:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Plunge In U.S. Treasury Yields Means For The Next 10 Years  [View article]
    Curious - did any of you hear the Jerffrey Gudlach comments 9/9 last month ?
    It is NOT too dated - as a matter of fact his message more than supports the views of this author - some view him as the heir apparent to Gross. Obviously a google will help put his words into perspective. Just yesterday he provided additional up-to-date thoughts: a false rally - "correction" not yet over. He is not bullish. But he too makes sense to understand his unique reasons why -
    Oct 16, 2014. 10:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BDC Pricing For Q4 2014: Part 1  [View article]
    Year to date most of the BDCs have been lagging the large cap equity markets. But based on fundamental research a number have recently declined more steeply in terms of percentage declines toward their 12 month lows faster . Eighty percent of the 54 BDCs (including BDCS, BDCL and BIZD) have recently dropped steeply to within 10% of their 52 week lows. Perhaps many are throwing out the babies with the dirty water. This might be a good opportunity to combine good and improving fundamentals with a technical indicator - RSI - which measures relative acceleration of declines in price (as well as advances).
    RSI stands for ‘Relative Strength Index'. It is a popular indicator used by technically focused investors to indicate potential "buying weakness" or "selling strength". . It compares the average of gains in days that closed up to the average of losses in days that closed down; readings above 70 suggest an asset is overbought, while an RSI below 30 suggests undervalued conditions are present.
    SharpCharts is one source which provides this indicator .
    Based on today's closings, the following DBCs have an RSI at or below 30:
    ACAS 14., MCC 20, MCGC and BDCS 21, FULL, TCAP and BDCL 24, BIZD 25, TICC 28, PSEC 29, TCPC, GLAD and SLRC 30.
    Be sure to look at the charts - back to the last times the RSI was at or below 30 and this will probably give you some indication that RSI can help determine opportune times to catch a falling baby.
    Also note the selling opportunities when the indicator is over 70. Does anyone else use this to help determine when "buying the dip" might make sense? .
    Oct 2, 2014. 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New 2x ETN From ETRACS Focuses On High Dividends And Low Volatility  [View article]
    I have attempted to avoid ETNs for the reasons mentioned in the above comments and responses.
    Other than the risks of the issuer (UBS) which have been discussed, what are the issues of holding ETNs in an IRA with regard to receiving and or reinvesting the regular distributions/payments of cash ("Dividends" or "Interest" or ?) .?
    For example I have held my DOD ETN position in my IRA since before the 2007-8 "crash" and it has out performed the "aristocratic quality company growing dividend" SDY ETF. I started both from March 3. 2009 - the bottom of the crash - and assumed that the SDY dividends were reinvested (and DOD did not distribute anything during this period).
    Based on the Drip Calculator DOD's AATR was 28.05% and SDY's was "only" 22.53%. So I can't complain - but are there issues about holding an ETN which may not be apparent to this performance only review. I must be missing something.
    Oct 2, 2014. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures point to flat open  [View news story]
    Interesting to note that the RUT and/or IWM are within 2-4 % of the LOWS reached early in 2014, are both significantly below both of their 50 and 200 DMALs, their 50 DMAL's are both in a Bearish down trend and have formed a bearish "Death Cross", and both show a series of declining topes during these past 9 months while BOTH the SP500 and DJI are within a few percentage points of their all time highs and (earlier this morning) are both still above their BULLISH (UP) trending 50 and 200 Day Moving average lines.
    Obviously the small and micro-cap growth stocks (biotechs come to mind) and high yield income producing securities which might be considered to be "Interest Rate Sensitive" are being marched out to the back shed due to long awaited increase in interest rates.
    These are the facts.
    ARE THESE "technical indicators" suggesting a continued "buy the dip" strategy - or a roll over of bullish momentum toward a more longer term bearish posture?
    Time will tell.
    In the meantime, for your reading pleasure - King World News -
    provides plenty of sobering thoughts by the likes of Art Cashin, John Mauldin, Bill Fleckenstein, Richard Russell,
    Sep 25, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Death Crosses Signal Bearish Markets?  [View article]
    Perhaps "someone" might provide research/comment on the "what if" the past Death Crosses occurred at times if and when the SLOPE of the 200 DMAL was DOWN (defined as when the most recent day's 200 DMAL level is below the previous day's level) .
    I'd like to see the same comments as to when the 50DMAL moves ABOVE the 200 DMAL - again - both when the 200 DMAL is sloping UP as well as when sloping DOWN.
    My intuition suggests that this "fine tuning of coincidental indicators" might improve the predictive value of such indictors.
    And especially if and when this event is occurring at the time as it is occurring with other indexes (and specific securities).
    Sep 23, 2014. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rxi Pharmaceuticals, Significant Upside Of 300% Is Expected In Coming Months  [View article]
    Are you still involved with following RXII.
    I am still long
    Have you seen the Griffin Reports.Last i heard with a TP of 13.50 (but maybe out of date)
    other holdings include (in size order)
    Sep 16, 2014. 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Synthetic Biologics to Host Phase II Trimesta™ for Multiple Sclerosis Conference Call 
    What with bullish news - why the 14% decline?
    Sep 12, 2014. 01:30 PM | Likes Like
  • It's Nightmarish Contemplating A 9/11 Anniversary With ISIS  [View article]
    Another reminder of what we all need to be reminded.
    This is a not well distributed REAL description of what
    the Islamic State provides if given the opportunity

    Not a pleasant discussion - but it is ALL REALITY for too
    many people who were not given a choice.
    Sep 11, 2014. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment