Goldman's Equity Strategist Sees S&P Falling 14% In Q4 [View article]
So, does this genius suggest that this relatively modest 17% correction will result in a "Buying opportunity" to load up the truck? Or does he expect a continued slide down 19% as during the mid year "correction" of 2011? Or does he project a real cliff - like a 20 to 50 % Bear Market decline as we had only a few years ago as Bush was leaving office after the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman and (almost) GM and more than a millions of US voters declaring bankruptcy? and creating a buying opportunity for those who shorted their way to millions in profits.
With the market set to record its biggest opening gap down in months, ukarlewitz looks at the last four 9:30 AM flushes. The market was higher shortly thereafter in each instance. Quantifiable Edges looks at occasions where the market gapped down 1% ahead of a Fed meeting - all of these turned positive over the next 2 days. [View news story]
Choosh: So these past three and a half years during which time the U.S. equities markets significantly out performed most global markets, the market was not going up because the multitude of GLOBAL investors - NOT just the U.S. investors - were discounting the outstanding economic policies of the Obama Administration - BUT - rather - these millions of investors were - for these past 42 months - actually discounting the POSSIBILITY the Romney would win 2 to 3 or 4 years into the future and become the next POTUS? Brilliant observation !!! Be sure to ask Romney to be appointed to some really important position on his cabinet with decisive, informed and well thought out decision making as a desired attribute.
Perfect Global Equity Peaks As Bernanke's Bull Comes To Bear [View article]
For the over 70.5 age Retired couple with a diversified IRA and living on the MRDs, mortgage payments and limited cash flow, what Income generating global sectors (using ETFs) should be considered. Although I can't short in my IRA, I can use "long" positions of ETFs such as SH, SDS and SPXU to profit from bearish U.S. equity market trends.
A nice chart from Goldman makes clear the risk in holding long-term Treasury paper at these yields. While a 100 basis points increase in rates hurts anyone holding Treasurys, low yields effectively lengthen a bond's duration, making a rise in rates especially painful. Rates were high enough in the 80s that even a 100 basis point spike in yields still left Treasury owners with a positive return - now that's good risk/reward. [View news story]
The price of TLT is below both the short term 4 Day EMAL and the 50 Day MAL. It will be interesting to learn from those who "know" the potential (technical, of course) implications if/when TLT price will have a closing price below BOTH the 50 and 200 day MAL. It has only done so - for only one day - three times since April of 2011 - 18 months ago - when it traded at 90/share - now up 33% . TIP has traced a similar but less volatile price chart. 3 years ago it was already above both it's 50 and 200 day MAL at a price of 94. TIP is currently at 121.7 - up 30%. AND it has closed below both of these 50 and 200 day longterm moving average indicator only twice in past three years - in December 2010 for 2 days and again in February for three weeks during which time the 200 day MAL continued to remain in a bullish trend. Tip is still above BOTH the 50 and 200 day MAL and both of these MALs continue to trend UP. The 200 day MAL is at 118.91 - a little more than 2% above the current price.
Isis Investment In Regulus Valued At $28 Million At Completion Of Regulus Initial Public Offering [View article]
As most who read this know, ALNY is also a "parent" of RGLS. Both ISIS and ALNY have the same Company Founder in common. Since only "most" are aware of this , it is up to the professional research analysts to recognize this in their reports and updates. This assumes that PEOPLE who found companies are the ones usually held accountable for the macro growth and success of their companies. I have seen research reports - 10 to 20 pages in length - which do not even mention the (common) founder's name and or provide any background on the many profitable companies, investments, products and services he has been associated with since even before he founded ALNY at the turn of this century. Check him out. The first thing to do is ask your informed guru friends who suggested you have an interest in ISIS, RGLS or ALNY.They should know the name and tell you his story and what he has done to develop these three companies.
I use the 4 day EMA to get an idea of potential interest from traders to add or liquidate trading position. Your thoughts - not that i expect the whole world to attempt to take too much advantage of this "indicator".
High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio For October [View article]
Do you have any similar "system" creating and dynamically modifying a globally diversified income emphasis total return equity portfolio of ETFs? Perhaps using the ETFScreen and/or ETFREPLAY services? Have you found any service similar to these two ETF services which can be used on common stocks - a service which has a similar "dynamic" strategy for creating and continuously modifying a portfolio of dividend paying (non ETF) stocks ?
Extremely Simple Trend-Following Trading Models Have Dominated Buy-And-Hold [View article]
I understand that http://www.etfreplay.com enables one to create their own Macro Global portfolio of ETFs using maybe 10 or 20 diverse but not necessarily correlated and some negatively correlated (equities, fixed income, gold/silver, big cap, small cap, etc) and using one or two relative strength periods of time to dynamically determine and set to pick the one (or whatever number of - example 4) ETFs which are the strongest and to own them until such time as the weakest of the 4 is replaced with another selection from the 10 or 20 being monitored. This the investor is able to invest in and stay with the (example) 4 strongest (in terms of relative strength) through all market environments. It works on paper and the only problem is being able to stay with these top 4 (or whatever number of issues) until "the system" provides a new selection. I often times find myself attempting to out think the system - but this is obviously NOT any fault of the system. Have you attempted to do this for more than just SPY.
Stocks: Don't Get Burned By The Next Bear [View article]
What you say is great. But any "automatic" sell (if and when it breaks below the 200 DAY MAL) can be "modified" by looking at the June 2012 and counting 4 days before it reversed and thus use 5 days below. But looking back only to the August 2011 decline before and waiting 5 days below before initiating defense actions would have resulted getting out AFTEr a tumble from 1370 and past the 1280 when it went through the 200 day -waiting 5 more business day closes would have got you out around 1150 or so. I feel these technical indicators are great if used as a signal to become defensive. But I like to use BOTH the LEVEL and the TREND 200 day and the 50 day as i4 indicators and the 50 day above or below the 200 day as a 5th indicator. Thus if and when the MAL of the 50 or 200 day MAL is up each counts as a positive 1 - total 2 if both up from previous close. if the current price is above one or both of the two 50 and 200 day MAL this gives1 point - or two if the price is above both and the last of 5 points would be given if and when the 50 day is above the 200 day MAL. If you do this for both the individual stocks and one or two of the most appropriate index benchmark, such a judgement can help tune up or down the level of risk. For those seeking long term holds, perhaps when the above indicators are turning bearish on both the index and individual holdings perhaps the investor should engage in hedging by selling covered calls on their holdings - or by buying some insurance using some of the non leveraged Equity ETFs. Just food for thought.
Eurozone Contagion Returns To Markets [View article]
Interesting to compare $vix vs $spx using StockCharts symbol entry
$vix:$spx
My interpretation: VIX - and the various "investment" alternatives - VXX and UVXY as examples - during this past month - until today - out performed the SPX with a brief move above the 50 day MAL. It last moved(2 days) above the 200 Day MAL back in early June. Perhaps a bottoming phase.
Dividend Paying Stocks Outperform In 2011: An ETF Strategy For Benefiting [View article]
While I am at it, based on a "total return reinvest dividends" in an IRA account, which - of all the ETFs with the word "dividend" in their formal name - would be considered the best 5 based on since 1/1/2008 (4.75 years) Total Return - including dividends - in an non taxable IRA account? and which ones generated their returns with the least "volatility of daily/weekly price changes" or standard deviation. This period specifically includes the big bear market thereby helping compare bear market volatility.
Dividend Paying Stocks Outperform In 2011: An ETF Strategy For Benefiting [View article]
I just used Yahoo Fin to compare charts of the DJI, SPX, SPY, DIA and DOD. Using the chart compare, it appears that DOD outperformed the other 4 since 12/3/2007 (Inception of DOD ? ) But what i do not know, is to what extent does the chart reflect "total return"? To be specific, in the case of DIA, SPY, to what extent does the chart reflect just the price change. more specically, "What if" I bought equal dollars of each (DIA, SPY and DOD. And what if I reinvested the dividends in DIA and SPY? I believe DOD does not pay dividends. At the end of the race (almost 5 years later) who is ahead including dividends?
Goldman's Equity Strategist Sees S&P Falling 14% In Q4 [View article]
Or does he expect a continued slide down 19% as during the mid year "correction" of 2011?
Or does he project a real cliff - like a 20 to 50 % Bear Market decline as we had only a few years ago as Bush was leaving office after the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman and (almost) GM and more than a millions of US voters declaring bankruptcy? and creating a buying opportunity
for those who shorted their way to millions in profits.
With the market set to record its biggest opening gap down in months, ukarlewitz looks at the last four 9:30 AM flushes. The market was higher shortly thereafter in each instance. Quantifiable Edges looks at occasions where the market gapped down 1% ahead of a Fed meeting - all of these turned positive over the next 2 days. [View news story]
Brilliant observation !!!
Be sure to ask Romney to be appointed to some really important position on his cabinet with decisive, informed and well thought out decision making as a desired attribute.
Perfect Global Equity Peaks As Bernanke's Bull Comes To Bear [View article]
Although I can't short in my IRA, I can use "long" positions of ETFs such as SH, SDS and SPXU to profit from bearish U.S. equity market trends.
A nice chart from Goldman makes clear the risk in holding long-term Treasury paper at these yields. While a 100 basis points increase in rates hurts anyone holding Treasurys, low yields effectively lengthen a bond's duration, making a rise in rates especially painful. Rates were high enough in the 80s that even a 100 basis point spike in yields still left Treasury owners with a positive return - now that's good risk/reward. [View news story]
It will be interesting to learn from those who "know" the potential (technical, of course) implications if/when TLT price will have a closing price below BOTH the 50 and 200 day MAL.
It has only done so - for only one day - three times since April of 2011 - 18 months ago - when it traded at 90/share - now up 33% .
TIP has traced a similar but less volatile price chart.
3 years ago it was already above both it's 50 and 200 day MAL at a price of 94.
TIP is currently at 121.7 - up 30%. AND it has closed below both of these 50 and 200 day longterm moving average indicator only twice in past three years - in December 2010 for 2 days and again in February for three weeks during which time the 200 day MAL continued to remain in a bullish trend. Tip is still above BOTH the 50 and 200 day MAL and both of these MALs continue to trend UP.
The 200 day MAL is at 118.91 - a little more than 2% above the current price.
Pessimism At Highest Level Since June In AAII Sentiment Survey [View article]
Isis Investment In Regulus Valued At $28 Million At Completion Of Regulus Initial Public Offering [View article]
Both ISIS and ALNY have the same Company Founder in common.
Since only "most" are aware of this , it is up to the professional research analysts to recognize this in their reports and updates.
This assumes that PEOPLE who found companies are the ones usually held accountable for the macro growth and success of their companies.
I have seen research reports - 10 to 20 pages in length - which do not even mention the (common) founder's name and or provide any background on the many profitable companies, investments, products and services he has been associated with since even before he founded ALNY at the turn of this century. Check him out. The first thing to do is ask your informed guru friends who suggested you have an interest in ISIS, RGLS or ALNY.They should know the name and tell you his story and what he has done to develop these three companies.
Slow Day On The Street [View article]
Slow Day On The Street [View article]
High Yield Dividend Champion Portfolio For October [View article]
Perhaps using the ETFScreen and/or ETFREPLAY services?
Have you found any service similar to these two ETF services which can be used on common stocks - a service which has a similar "dynamic" strategy for creating and continuously modifying a portfolio of dividend paying (non ETF) stocks ?
Extremely Simple Trend-Following Trading Models Have Dominated Buy-And-Hold [View article]
Stocks: Don't Get Burned By The Next Bear [View article]
But looking back only to the August 2011 decline before and waiting 5 days below before initiating defense actions would have resulted getting out AFTEr a tumble from 1370 and past the 1280 when it went through the 200 day -waiting 5 more business day closes would have got you out around 1150 or so.
I feel these technical indicators are great if used as a signal to become defensive. But I like to use BOTH the LEVEL and the TREND 200 day and the 50 day as i4 indicators and the 50 day above or below the 200 day as a 5th indicator. Thus if and when the MAL of the 50 or 200 day MAL is up each counts as a positive 1 - total 2 if both up from previous close. if the current price is above one or both of the two 50 and 200 day MAL this gives1 point - or two if the price is above both and the last of 5 points would be given if and when the 50 day is above the 200 day MAL.
If you do this for both the individual stocks and one or two of the most appropriate index benchmark, such a judgement can help tune up or down the level of risk. For those seeking long term holds, perhaps when the above indicators are turning bearish on both the index and individual holdings perhaps the investor should engage in hedging by selling covered calls on their holdings - or by buying some insurance using some of the non leveraged Equity ETFs.
Just food for thought.
Eurozone Contagion Returns To Markets [View article]
$vix:$spx
My interpretation:
VIX - and the various "investment" alternatives - VXX and UVXY as examples - during this past month - until today - out performed the SPX with a brief move above the 50 day MAL. It last moved(2 days) above the 200 Day MAL back in early June.
Perhaps a bottoming phase.
REM: Sleep Well With This mREIT Trade [View article]
Any updates what with today's price action??
Dividend Paying Stocks Outperform In 2011: An ETF Strategy For Benefiting [View article]
This period specifically includes the big bear market thereby helping compare bear market volatility.
Dividend Paying Stocks Outperform In 2011: An ETF Strategy For Benefiting [View article]
Using the chart compare, it appears that DOD outperformed the other 4 since 12/3/2007 (Inception of DOD ? )
But what i do not know, is to what extent does the chart reflect "total return"?
To be specific, in the case of DIA, SPY, to what extent does the chart reflect just the price change.
more specically, "What if" I bought equal dollars of each (DIA, SPY and DOD. And what if I reinvested the dividends in DIA and SPY? I believe DOD does not pay dividends.
At the end of the race (almost 5 years later) who is ahead including dividends?