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  • Total Return BDC Portfolios For Q3 2014  [View article]
    I not most of the BDCs "corrected" about 10% earlier this reay during the R2000 issue.
    BDCL - with a 2X leverage was down about 20%
    with BDCL visiting the 28ish level 3 times YTD,
    perhaps BDCL will be valued at a good buy point when BDCS approaches the May lows of 24 level - for BDCL - it would be around 24-25 ish - an area it has visited many times during past 18 months.
    I note a relatively large number of big "red" volume days in 2014 - most recently when it crossed below the two (50 and 200 day) Moving Average lines.
    Apparently momentum investors are using such technical indicators.
    Aug 3, 2014. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reaching For Yield  [View article]
    To what extent do your Sentiment indicator levels provide "value added" accuracy to the 70 and 30 RSI levels indicating "relatively" (compared with other equities) overbought and oversold momentum buying and selling?
    It appears that many investors do at least follow this RSI indicator based on the price action of stocks immediately following the RSI closing below the 70 and or closing above 30 level
    Jul 28, 2014. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Through Finjan's Current Litigation  [View article]
    Lots of comments in past 6 weeks.
    During which time the stock declines 44% from5.4 to a recent low of 3.03.
    Were these press releases meant to be that Bearish?
    I DO like the 66 Cents recover (20%) during this past week.
    But no one rang the bell.
    Maybe it is the anticipation of revelations to come at the 8/22 hearing or maybe at the post Labor Day conference on September 4th.
    "Buy the rumor - sell the news"
    aka "discounting".
    In the meantime where is our fearsome author of this report going back 6 months to provide research, comment and feedback on these past few conferences in May and June?
    Jul 28, 2014. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Through Finjan's Current Litigation  [View article]
    I forgot to include the dates referenced in the above letter:

    February 27, 2014 - Invalidity contentions

    March 13, 2014 - Exchange of proposed terms for construction

    April 3, 2014 - Exchange of preliminary claim constructions and extrinsic evidence

    April 28, 2014 - Joint claim construction and prehearing statement

    May 28, 2014 - Completion of claim construction discovery (including depositions of experts who submitted declarations in support of claim construction positions)

    June 12, 2014 - Claim construction briefs - opening brief

    June 26, 2014 - Claim construction briefs - responsive brief

    July 3, 2014 - Claim construction briefs - reply brief

    July 21, 2014 - Tutorial (at 2:30 p.m.)

    August 4, 2014 - Claim construction hearing (at 2:30 p.m.)

    The most important date is August 4, 2014. This is the construction hearing or Markman hearing of the case. For those new to these stories, the Markman is a pretrial hearing in which the judge examines the evidence from all parties and designates appropriate meanings to key words or complicated matters in the evidence. These patents can get pretty complicated, so it is common practice to have certain items defined so all parties including the jury are on the same page. Very important in these cases.
    Jul 26, 2014. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Through Finjan's Current Litigation  [View article]
    Below are the dates given in the article dated 2/11/14.
    We are now past all but two of them - due during next 30 days.
    First:Does anyone (including the author of the feb article) want to
    venture any summary as to the outcome of these dates through July 2014?
    and second - who is willing to go out on a limb ---
    now that the stock is down significantly and many commentators
    have encourage "patience" with our significant "paper" losses-
    by when and from what level should one expect to actually see
    (from someone who has some knowledge about the products of
    this company) some reasonably positive fundamental developments
    which would be worth while taking as a timely investment at a level
    which might help "average down" before our patience has been rewarded
    and we only breakeven recovery from our current "paper losses"?
    Jul 26, 2014. 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 New Russell Dividend Dogs Point To 10% To 18% July Upsides  [View article]
    Great ideas to use such PT data to find potential securities which are currently priced at "under and or over" valuations depending on the most bearish to the most bullish projections.

    As an example, I have selected about 40 equity securities consisting of BDCs - mostly relatively high dividend paying - all of which were recently removed from the Russell indexes.
    I looked up the range of Price Targets provided by the site
    ( and compared the "what if" - from the current price to both the low end PT and high end PT, added in the Yahoo Finance provided current yield to each and came up with the range (from bearish to bullish) of "Total Return" potentials based on the professional (fundamental research) projections of the various sell side research analysts covering the stocks.
    As an example only: Take MCC covered by 14 analysts:
    MCC cur price =12.99// cur yield=11.39%//Low PT=$14/sh//high PT=$16/sh

    12 Mo Tot Ret from CP to Low PT of 14 = 11.39 % (yield) plus 7.28%=19.17%..
    12 Mo Tot Ret from CP To High PT OF 16= 34.57%.

    The AVERAGE projected TP was 26.87%.

    BY creating a spreadsheet, it is easy to "view" - on both an ABSOLUTE and RELATIVE basis - which of the 40+ BDCs are currently most under or over priced based on the perceived valuations of the full range of bearish to bullish analysts which in turn is based on their independent fundamental analysis of this sector.

    your thoughts?

    Any thoughts as to the extent to which such an "numbers only" analysis - by sector - might help investors in the selection of specific securities which are priced at levels which may be considered to be "not yet fully discounting" the bullish or bearish views of those following the sectors.
    Jul 25, 2014. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Total Return BDC Portfolios For Q3 2014  [View article]
    By my count, ABOUT 12 pay monthly:FSC, FSIC, FULL, GAIN, GLAD, HCAP, HRZN, MAIN, PFLT, PSEC, SCM, SUNS.
    Re your listings in this article and the various rankings of total returns and pricings.
    Just as one way to help understand valuations based on the professional analysts covering the BDCs and publishing their fundamentally projected 12 month target prices, I played with the percent difference between the current pricing and both the lowest TP and the highest TP and added in the current (yahoo finance) indicated % yield to get the most bearish and most bullish projected total returns
    Of all of the BDCs, the following 5 had a negative TOTAL returns (including the indicted dividend yield) assuming that in 12 months the lowest TP is reached and the investor received the current yield.
    The following are the numbers: HTGC lo TP of 14 = -9.18%//MAIN low TP of 29 = -2.58%//PSEC low TP of 9.50 = -1.01%//TCPC low TP=16 =-1.36%// and TSLX low TP = 17=-9.97%.
    Based on the highest provided TPs (of the 42 BDC I follow with listed TPs), only GLAD had a High TP which is lower than the current ($9/sh) and thus its Total Return resulted in negative 12 month return net after the 8.3current yield of -2.77%.
    Obviously using TPs as just one indicator of what fundamental analysts project in the future can be helpful in reviewing the extent to which the Current market investors in this supply and demand of market driven transactions result in valuations on the stock vs the professional views of analysts who attempt to make their money being more accurate than other competitive analysts working with the same fundamentals.
    Jul 24, 2014. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovereign Debt: The Default Debate  [View article]
    Do you have any comments on the relatively recent CNBC news interview with Wilbur ROSS relative to his relatively well informed views (6/12) of the forthcoming "Ultimate Soverign Debt Bubble" and what investment options will be available what with currencies and QE if rates go back to 2.5 to 45 levels? The recent Economist (page 66) references the Buttonwood repo market crash of 2008 and the fact that the rule changes created a lack of liquidity in the corporate bond markets and the Financial times discussed the significant outflow of 3.5 billion of bond funds of the 74% of low quality B to B- which have beenn marketed in these past few years.
    Jul 17, 2014. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buying A House Is A Terrible Investment  [View article]
    I just used a the dividend channel . com "DRIP" site to calculate the total return BEFORE TAXES- assuming that you owned it in an IRA - of an investment since inception of VTI, SPY, and VNQ starting when VTI and VNQ started trading.

    VNQ started in 10/1/2004 had a TAR (using DRIP) of 8.86% during which time SPY had a 7.68% TAR.
    VTI started i 6/15/2001 and had a TAR of 6.5% during which time SPY had a TAL of 5.48
    VTI and SPY (no related to RE) underperformed RE related VNQ
    and VTI (world equities) outperformed SPY since VTI started.
    Not sure what this very limited data (if accurate) proves.
    After taxes .... another story.
    Jun 15, 2014. 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: 4 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares During The Last 30 Days  [View article]
    But two have been selling regularly over at least the past 2 years and another actually just exercised some options and sold the stock, thus maintaining his position in the company.
    Jun 10, 2014. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Short Synthetic Biologics After Phase II Relapsing-Remitting MS Data  [View article]
    I want to know - is LTBio STILL SHORT?
    If LTB was a short at 1.40/share does current price provide him with an even better "SHORT" value?
    technically (hard to use such on penny stocks) the price is fast approaching the two MALs. specifically the 50 DMALis at1.90 and the 200 DMALis at 1.84.
    If and when it closes above the higher of these two - especially if on BIG volume - would be (technically) bullish.
    I would suspect that the fundamental sell side analysts will modify their current price targets from the current average of 4.0 per share - still more than 100% above the current,
    Jun 9, 2014. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Finjan soars; shares to start trading on Nasdaq  [View news story]
    Are there any write ups of the company's presentation - including the Q&A - on FNJN in the FNJN website or in Seeking Alpha regarding the substance of the three conferences?
    It appears that a number of shareholders are able to sell up to 21 millions shares over a period of months and new potential investors have at least three presentations by management since early May to digest.

    Having "corrected (15-4.52= 9.48 points - 62%in 6 months, what more to come
    from management before the good news will be presented?
    Patient investor. When do I load up the truck?
    Jun 5, 2014. 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Finjan Could Go From $6 To $15  [View article]
    From within days of the bullish SeekingAlpha article which resulted in 4 brief days of aggressive rising prices- from 5.10 to 10.3 - it has been virtually all down hill to today's New intraday low of 4.35.
    Does anyone know of any other 3rd party sponsorship by sell side brokerages or SA Authors or contributors or current long shareholders or short sellers with current short positions have any words of "wisdom"?
    Jun 5, 2014. 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rxi Pharmaceuticals, Significant Upside Of 300% Is Expected In Coming Months  [View article]
    What is date of the author's most recent follow up to the potential for a "300% valuation"??

    Last December 2013 the stock was around 3/sh - despite a temporary move to 6.84 during the next two months - the last few months of the BioMedPharmRTech bubble it has declined back to the $3/sh level.
    May 14, 2014. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish On The Market? Russell 2000 Better Short Than S&P 500  [View article]
    I recall seeing a reference to the Total percentage of market cap of the Business Development Companies which are currently part of the R2000. I have been unable to find this data. I am interested to better understand the timing of the liquidation of the shares of these companies specifically including the percentage of market cap and number of shares of each company will be required to sell by this date and the temporary but potentially large percentage price change which will potentially occur between now and when the R2000 no longer has these stock in the index.And, importantly which companies will be added on or before this date. Has anyone written an analysis as to the potential investment opportunities existing between now and after this date of change?
    May 9, 2014. 08:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment