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Anonymous 2

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  • Post-Crash Peak Price Recovery Time [View article]
    Why are you using modern declines for comparing what is at least arguably the worst since the "great depression?
    And this time it could be worse due to the terrible soveriegn debt issues and the fact that even CHINA is now addressing what might be the biggest real estate bubble of all time?
    Have you not been listening to the many Nobel economists who just might have some reasons to express caution - such as Joseph Stiglitz (or Krugman) in today's Charlie Rose interview on PBS.
    The time to recovery for this was from October 1929 to July 1954 - this amounts to a QUARTER of a century - and this does not include the "cost' of the rise in COL.
    This IS what is relevant. This IS a different economic mess and comes with totally different significantly more explosive GLOBAL political economic dynamics.
    Based on your time periods, do you REALLY feel that humpty dumpy will be all better again within the 7 years which was the worse of modern times. Or are we in a new ball game?
    Mar 3 10:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Deflation About to Rear Its Head? Part 2 [View article]
    I look forward to your response to tunaman4u2 above
    Let's say you are retired - fixed income and pension and have a $1,000,000 investment portfolio in an IRA with the usual high quality growth stocks, growing dividend stocks, a few short term high qualiy corporate bonds, etc but you want to allocate an initial 10% - $100,000 - into non trading investments which will be devoted to "pure" deflation outlook investments.
    Feb 26 07:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Southern Europe Will Not Be Allowed to Default [View article]
    THOUGHTFUL comments have been made by many - but two of the more ‘in depth” reports come from Marko Papic & Peter Zeihan “Germany’s Choice: The situation in Europe is dire and the report discusses the depth of the crisis the europeans face across the board and that any European Central Bank liquidity measures are only stopgap measures. Likewise, John Mauldin provides an “Outside the box” February Economic report by London based Simon Hunt suggests that whatever global economic recovery will disappoint innthat growth will slow duringthe first half of this year and a “new” global recession - part of the “ongoing depression” - will begin by 2012-3 (the bad news) and will unlikely begin a new period of sustainable growth until 2018 - at the earliest.
    Greece is not a “quick fix” problem as the markets seem to be discounting it today (UP 160 points) vs past 3 weeks (down 600 points).
    Feb 9 03:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Which Dividend Stocks Are Relatively Safe? [View article]
    To what extent would (A) Percent of COVERAGE of quarterly and annual dividend payouts along with (B) a record of quarterly and annual increases in EPS for past 5 years be to help screen for those investors investors significant superior risk adjusted (Vs the S&P500 index) "Total Return" from ability of company management to generate Consistent Growth (in investment value) plus Consistent Growth in Income Payout.
    Maybe Hao Jin could look into this?
    Sep 27 05:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quiet Excellence For This Dividend ETF [View article]
    Using the DividendChannel Drip Returns Calculator, VIG significantly out performs SDY as well as DHS since the inception of VIG and the inception of DHS respectively. The Average Annual Total Return assuming use of DRIP since inception of DHS was 5.57% vs 7.83% for SDY. VIG even more significantly outperformed SDY since inception of VIG for an even longer period of time.
    This calculator is VERY easy to use and can be used to measure comparative DRIP Total Returns for Stocks vs ETFs and mutual funds over various periods of time.
    Taking advantage of the power of compounding and "dollar cost averaging".
    Aug 20 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Industry Ranks August 2014 [View article]
    It appears that using the RSI levels on the StockCharts graphs - buying and adding when the RSI is below 30 and selling and taking profits when the RSI is above 70 might be complimentary to your selection process.
    Thus, sorting stocks in your 22 industries when their RSI was below 30 might help
    your followers time their investments when momentum was at or near a relatively weak level.
    To what extent do you use any technical indicators to help you with the timing of your entry to and or exits from fundamentally selected sectors and specific stocks?
    Aug 10 12:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hunting For Bears [View article]
    Excellent article. Being retired, I look to own dividend paying companies and ETFs using DRIP to compound the dividend returns in our tax sheltered IRAs. I use the Drip Dividend calculator on the Dividend Channel site to compare the Returns of SDY versus individual stocks and ETFs since the well known "top" of the first decade stock market in mid 2007 assuming that SDY has a well known and reasonably good track record to use as a "benchmark" to match or beat.
    For example, of 54 Business Development Companies (BDCs) I track, the only ETFs for this sector are BIZD, down 7% and BDCS, down 15% - not (yet) 20% - from their 52 week highs. The dividend payouts of BDCs should be considered "business man's risk" dividends. Of the 10 (of 54) BDCs which are down more than 20% from their 52 week highs, only one has been in business since the Highs of June 2007: TAXI. The Annual Average Total Return (AATR) of TAXI since 6/1/2007 using the DRIP calculator provided 7.63% vs 5.54% for the SDY.
    Another example: I used this DRIP calculator to compare a well know health care company BMY which is currently down "only" 14% from its 52 week high. The AATR of BMY since 6/1/2007 has been 11.7% vs the 5.54% of the SDY.
    Of all the ETFs which emphasize dividend income in their names, only 5 match or exceed the above mentioned AATR of SDY: DON,VIG, FVD, VTI, DTN.
    Aug 9 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CTI BioPharma's (CTIC) CEO Jim Bianco on Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Based on the 5 sell side analysts who cover CTIC, they have provided 12-18nmo price targets ranging from 4 to 6 which - based on a current closing price of 2.50 suggests a return of 60% to 140%. In July of last year 2013 the price was around 1.00 per share. Thus in a year's time it has already been up 150%. - still has another 60 to 140% to go based on 5 different independent analysts with 5 different financial valuation assumptions. So far none indicate it is overvalued. For those who are willing to look back a year or so, look up the initial remarks of the Globally well regarded and Highly acclaimed Neurological Cancer specialist MD who was invited to serve the company as Chief Medical Advisor. He seems to have come aboard willing to put his name and reputation working with a company he feels is destined to be in the right place at the right time. And this was last year. The company continues to progress forward. Yes, I have been an owner of shares for more than a year.
    Aug 5 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Through Finjan's Current Litigation [View article]
    Lots of comments in past 6 weeks.
    During which time the stock declines 44% from5.4 to a recent low of 3.03.
    Were these press releases meant to be that Bearish?
    I DO like the 66 Cents recover (20%) during this past week.
    But no one rang the bell.
    Maybe it is the anticipation of revelations to come at the 8/22 hearing or maybe at the post Labor Day conference on September 4th.
    "Buy the rumor - sell the news"
    aka "discounting".
    In the meantime where is our fearsome author of this report going back 6 months to provide research, comment and feedback on these past few conferences in May and June?
    Jul 28 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Through Finjan's Current Litigation [View article]
    I forgot to include the dates referenced in the above letter:

    February 27, 2014 - Invalidity contentions

    March 13, 2014 - Exchange of proposed terms for construction

    April 3, 2014 - Exchange of preliminary claim constructions and extrinsic evidence

    April 28, 2014 - Joint claim construction and prehearing statement

    May 28, 2014 - Completion of claim construction discovery (including depositions of experts who submitted declarations in support of claim construction positions)

    June 12, 2014 - Claim construction briefs - opening brief

    June 26, 2014 - Claim construction briefs - responsive brief

    July 3, 2014 - Claim construction briefs - reply brief

    July 21, 2014 - Tutorial (at 2:30 p.m.)

    August 4, 2014 - Claim construction hearing (at 2:30 p.m.)

    The most important date is August 4, 2014. This is the construction hearing or Markman hearing of the case. For those new to these stories, the Markman is a pretrial hearing in which the judge examines the evidence from all parties and designates appropriate meanings to key words or complicated matters in the evidence. These patents can get pretty complicated, so it is common practice to have certain items defined so all parties including the jury are on the same page. Very important in these cases.
    Jul 26 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Through Finjan's Current Litigation [View article]
    Below are the dates given in the article dated 2/11/14.
    We are now past all but two of them - due during next 30 days.
    First:Does anyone (including the author of the feb article) want to
    venture any summary as to the outcome of these dates through July 2014?
    and second - who is willing to go out on a limb ---
    now that the stock is down significantly and many commentators
    have encourage "patience" with our significant "paper" losses-
    by when and from what level should one expect to actually see
    (from someone who has some knowledge about the products of
    this company) some reasonably positive fundamental developments
    which would be worth while taking as a timely investment at a level
    which might help "average down" before our patience has been rewarded
    and we only breakeven recovery from our current "paper losses"?
    Jul 26 04:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 New Russell Dividend Dogs Point To 10% To 18% July Upsides [View article]
    Fredrik:
    Great ideas to use such PT data to find potential securities which are currently priced at "under and or over" valuations depending on the most bearish to the most bullish projections.

    As an example, I have selected about 40 equity securities consisting of BDCs - mostly relatively high dividend paying - all of which were recently removed from the Russell indexes.
    I looked up the range of Price Targets provided by the site
    (http://www.4-traders.com) and compared the "what if" - from the current price to both the low end PT and high end PT, added in the Yahoo Finance provided current yield to each and came up with the range (from bearish to bullish) of "Total Return" potentials based on the professional (fundamental research) projections of the various sell side research analysts covering the stocks.
    As an example only: Take MCC covered by 14 analysts:
    MCC cur price =12.99// cur yield=11.39%//Low PT=$14/sh//high PT=$16/sh

    12 Mo Tot Ret from CP to Low PT of 14 = 11.39 % (yield) plus 7.28%=19.17%..
    12 Mo Tot Ret from CP To High PT OF 16= 34.57%.

    The AVERAGE projected TP was 26.87%.

    BY creating a spreadsheet, it is easy to "view" - on both an ABSOLUTE and RELATIVE basis - which of the 40+ BDCs are currently most under or over priced based on the perceived valuations of the full range of bearish to bullish analysts which in turn is based on their independent fundamental analysis of this sector.

    your thoughts?

    Any thoughts as to the extent to which such an "numbers only" analysis - by sector - might help investors in the selection of specific securities which are priced at levels which may be considered to be "not yet fully discounting" the bullish or bearish views of those following the sectors.
    Jul 25 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Prime Directive [View article]
    Faye and Dave:
    Great article with informed suggestions and a nice well thought value added response/feedback.
    Some investors like to use their dividend payouts in their IRA/401k and other tax sheltered retirement plans to provide them with cash to add to whatever stocks they choose. One alternative would be to use the DRIP in IRAs.
    Assuming that I like the portion of my portfolio which is devoted to my "total return" allocation in my portfolio, I use the DRIP calculator in my research to compare and select both current as well as potential new alternative additions to help determine the relative total returns since inception - with focus on most recent history - of the alternatives under consideration.
    Thus, and only for example, when seeking to add to my mREITs, REITs and or BDCs, I attempt to use the results of the DRIP calculator to determine which - within the same sector - have been able to generate the "relatively" greatest returns assuming DRIP is used for the duration. To emphasize long term results, I attempt to use companies which have been in the game since (at least) the middle of this past decade - which will demonstrate how they did during the later years of the big rally which ended with the - 07-08 global financial bear market as well as the significant recovery which has yet to be described as finished.
    Hindsight demonstrates that a "portfolio of just five BDCs" - (I used HRGC, PSEC, ARCC, TCAP, TAXI) bought and held using a DRIP since their inception in the Pre Financial crash period - would have generated significantly superior total returns when compared to virtually any of the equity indexes such as the DIA, DVY, SPY and SDY -in both cases using the DRIP system.
    Your thoughts?
    Apr 3 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retiree Study: Dividend Aristocrats; What's Missing [View article]
    To what extent was a DRIP plan used - or not used - just received cash - and what if NO withdrawals to provide such statistics might be of interest to
    those who have not reached the stage of the MRD requirements in these figures?
    Obviously such a plan provides an important "what if" example for comparison purposes with any equity security which generates any steady or growing payout.
    Mar 24 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cell Therapeutics: 5 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Month [View article]
    for the record, I am long CTIC and have been since 7/29/2013 at a cost as low as $1.09 in virtually all my family IRA accounts - and although I have taken profits during these past 8 months I still have positions in these 5 accounts and my most recent (and highest) purchase was at 4.040 on 3/12. So I have a loss on that position. I sold some - at a loss - a couple days ago when it broke below the steep 50 Day moving average level. The difference is that i am not blaming Insiders. They did not tell me to sell. I guess they forgot to call you about their personal investment decision even though It would have been against the law. But they did report it - as required by law. It is history. My lowest position is up 200%. I am NOT willing to "Blame these guys" for this. It was my decision to but a (virtual) penny stock and take the risk when I noticed that Dr Von Hoff had decided to come aboard as Chief Scientific advisor based on his well regarded reputation and experience.
    Mar 24 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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315 Comments
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