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Anonymous 2

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  • NYSE Margin Debt Stalks All-Time Highs [View article]
    In the good old days using margin allowed retail investors buy $200 of stock on $100 of equity using 50% margin.
    In addition, as I recall, many/most firms did not allow mutual funds to be in margin accounts.
    But now ETFs are in margin accounts and a GROWING number of etfs are leveraged as much as 3 to one and thus
    Still the same except one "Thing" and that is the fact that ETFs are marginable and can be used to backup margin cash to buy a 3 for 1 bull etf thus ending up with a 4 to one equity play and thus now the same amount of margin being used is resulting in significantly more risk and now that short ETFs are being use this adds to the amount of "risky" hedged investments creating a different level of leverage not available to the non professional investors.
    Maybe I am missing something.
    Feb 16 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Under The Hood Of The Top 5 Preferred ETFs [View article]
    David: Now that some of the comments above have brought up a few of the new ETF names - PXFX, PDT (closed end fund?), BWF ( Single corporate pfd - not a fund ?, - in addition to these, I am monitoring IPFF, SPFF, FPE .
    Ir would be "of interest" to see a side by side listing of each of their top 10 positions along with each position % equity allocation and show the "what if" equal dollars invested in each fund, which are the biggest to smallest total positions (using just the top 10 of each) of these 9 (?) different a ETFS (Just add the % allocations of any one position in all the 9 selected ETFs and divide by 9 to get an idea of what ones total portfolio of the (9) different portfolios combined.
    Off hand without doing the work I'd bet the WF Preferred would be one of the larger Pfd Positions.
    In any event net after fees, what has been the volatility of the past few years of rolling 12 month periods of dividend payouts. and have there been any trends in this? and what has been the daily, weekly or monthly standard deviation of price changes - ie which have n=been most volatile relative to the steadiness of the 12 month dividend payouts. Just a few ideas. This May 2012 review has been helpful in comparing and now with a new economy, maybe a good time for an update. Thanks
    Feb 13 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Platinum Is Outperforming Gold Despite A Large Deficit: Is It A Buy? [View article]
    Why bother with Palladium ?
    When looking at the stock/ETF charts of Gold, Silver and Palladium stocks mentioned above during any of the past (various) one, two and three time periods, the Gold and Silver provide less volatile price trends and are better absolute returns than any of those which are considered to be Palladium.
    Compare short term (less than 12 months) or long term (More than one year) trends of PAL, GLD and SLV, and although Precious minerals are often bought as a hedge vs Equity markets, the GLD and SLV charts have provide a positive trend - not so with any of the Palladium stocks for these short and long term trends.
    Jan 17 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Still A 'Don't Buy' [View article]
    5 days in June 2011 it closed at or below the 200 DMAL.
    This is NOT to be picky - but to "discuss" the extent to which a "close at or below" a MAL should be considered an action trigger.
    The reason for using a trigger based on a "close at or below" is used to prevent some of the whip saws when sellers finally throw the baby out with the bath water and panic sellers exhaust or reduce their extreme fear by lightening up their positions - and the stock goes back up.
    For example I like to observe the relative positions of the Open and Closing prices. The specialist usually has some control over where he wants to open and close the stock price based on his "book of orders" and his feel for a follow through, After all he has the info as to sellers and buyers and at what volume and at what price. So, as the price is dropping he has a pretty good feel, as to if sellers are "dumping' shares as the stock is moving down. By observing where the specialist chooses to open and close the stock provides some
    expectation that there may be a bullish case being created. Thus, an open high price and a lower closing price indicates an expectation of a continued bearish trend. But if the stock opens DOWN BIG and breaks through a support level (200 day MAL) and then turns around and closes at or above its open price that would be bullish. If it closes above its previous close that would be even more bullish especially if one were to also observe increasing volume as the prices moved higher. Thus, the chart shows that the JUNE break through was accomplished with a couple days with the stock closing at or below the 200 day MAL and continued to close lower than the previous close. But once the specialist felt like opening lower than the previous close but closed it higher and once the volume increased as the stock moved higher, this would be evidence of bills taking charge.
    As some vets will recall, the WSJ used to publish the opening price. There are reasons why the WSJ no longer does this - and it is not just because they do not want to waste ink. Something to think about.
    Oct 26 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman's Equity Strategist Sees S&P Falling 14% In Q4 [View article]
    So, does this genius suggest that this relatively modest 17% correction will result in a "Buying opportunity" to load up the truck?
    Or does he expect a continued slide down 19% as during the mid year "correction" of 2011?
    Or does he project a real cliff - like a 20 to 50 % Bear Market decline as we had only a few years ago as Bush was leaving office after the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman and (almost) GM and more than a millions of US voters declaring bankruptcy? and creating a buying opportunity
    for those who shorted their way to millions in profits.
    Oct 23 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pessimism At Highest Level Since June In AAII Sentiment Survey [View article]
    looks like June also market the low in the SPX
    Oct 18 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Individual Bonds vs. Bond ETFs: Two Completely Different Animals [View article]
    Does Morningstar have an update to this well written - but now dated 2010 - discussion of the investment in individual (2 to 5 year) corporate fixed income bonds vs "managed" ETFs or Mutual funds focused on maintaining a corporate bond portfolio with an average target maturity of 3 years?
    I believe such an article might be of interest to the many investors who are either retired and or seeking additional income as a complement to their growing dividend equity securities
    Feb 20 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPDR DJIA ETF Offers Better Risk/Return Profile Than A 'Safe' 6% Yield Fixed Income Portfolio [View article]
    I like to use the 50 and 200 day MAL to guide me with the timing of fundamentally selected investments:
    (A) long 1/3rd of a position if and when the price (of DIA, for example) is above DIA's 50 Day MAL.
    (B)Long 1/3rd if ad when DIA's price is at or above its 200 day MAL
    (C) long 1/3rd if and when the 50 day is at or above the 200 DAYB MAL
    Hao Jin's strategy could be modified to include using the 4 fixed income ETFs and the one equity DIA ETF as a portfolio of five positions total allocation with up to 20% invested in each of the 5 ETFs if and when the above criteria are applied for each (1/3rd) position.
    Thus, When fully invested each of the 5 different ETF positions would include three separate position - total 15 positions representing a 1/15th allocation (6.666% of the current equity in the account) at the time each position was entered.
    This strategy enables an investor to initiate the strategy at any time based on which of the criteria are indicating 1/3 or 2/3 or full position in each and every one of the five ETF positions.
    Those who wish can use a charting service to determine how such a program would keep one invested during the past 3, 5 or ten years.
    Currently
    HYG would be a full position
    PFF would be a 1/3rd position (Today it closed above its 50 day MAL.)
    EMB would be a full position (Today it went below but closed above it's 50 Day MAL)
    LQD would be a Full position
    DIA would be a full position (since the 50 day moved above the 200 day on the 21st of Dec).
    Jan 4 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic ETF Portfolio To Start 2012 [View article]
    Why not add columns showing date, price, past 12 mos dividend, yield, estimated next 12 months dividend, yield.

    This would help those interested in investing in stocks with management who have n interest in making growth of dividends an important component in an investor's total return - and this is important to the significantly fast growing number of investors - including retired investors, seeking a growing income stream from their investments.
    Jan 2 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Super Bad Committee's Quest To Weaken The Economy [View article]
    This isn't exactly political, but I think we need someone with Farage's ability to say it like it is to lead this country!

    http://bit.ly/w586Ou

    Let's all forward this message on to YOUR duly elected representatives
    Nov 21 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Chart of S&P 500 [View article]
    A 10% CORRECTION FRO EARLY MAY HIGH OF 12,876 IS 11,588.
    THIS "JUST HAPPENS" TO BE WITHIN 33 POINTS OF THE 11,555 INTRA-DAY LOW IN MID MARCH.
    AND LESS THAN A 100 POINTS BELOW THE CURRENT 200 DAY MAL OF 11687.
    FOR BULLS, GET SOME CASH READY TO COMMIT TO A PERFECT STORM OF PANIC SELLING DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO OF A PANIC SELLING WHICH (HOPEFULLY TEMPORARILY) DROPS INTRA DAY TO THIS BREAK BELOW THE CURRENT 200 DAY MAL LEVEL.
    Jun 10 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector ETF Valuations and Momentum: Energy and Industrials Look Attractive [View article]
    Geof:
    You could have used etfreplay.com and saved you and your readers a lot of time.
    I have been using them (including etfscreen.com) to help me get actionable indicators.
    These two sites enable one to "see" trends and more important ewarly indications of changes in trends (AS suggested by "tweedn" above.
    Feb 14 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One ETF: Controlling Risk Through Hedge Fund Replication [View article]
    Great article. It is interesting that the sescurity had similar problems as many others during last years march through June 1st time period.
    probably no comment can be given - after all it happened to many other stocks and etfs. The Black Swan is always out there. A risk pretty hard to hedge against.
    Feb 12 03:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On Israelsen's 7Twelve Portfolio [View article]
    What is difference in the "management of the positions" with regard to Tactical and Strategic?
    Please explain the "flat line performance in 2009 for your two Tactical portfolios
    how often do you reallocate to the 8.3% positions?
    if monthly, are the reallocations based on last bus day of month values?
    If quarterly, would that improve returns? overall volatility of returns?
    what criteria went into selecting the specific alt ETFs for the asset classes?
    Oct 6 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts on John Mauldin's Recent Dismal Outlook on Employment and the Economy [View article]
    Speaking of Hussman - if and when you have had an opportunity to review/critique his recent comments - beginning with his past two quarterly letters, I am sure I am not alone in k=looking forward to a critique of John's recent rather bearish words of wisdom.
    His words are relatively original in that his comments, conclusions and opinions are more based on his own rather analysis than on his comments on other's thoughts.
    And he is investing his/his investors money using his views rather than being an just an observer.
    Jul 7 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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