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Anonymous 2

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  • Broad market slump boosts mREITs [View news story]
    My guess is that there are a few global investors who use MOVING AVERAGE LVELS (MALs)
    "technical" indicators to help determine changes in momentum in money coming and exiting shares of securities. Many fundamental analysts and their investors use MAL analysis to help in the timing and price of execution of decisions to accumulate and liquidate the securities which they select using fundamental analysis.
    For these, it is interesting to note that TODAY, REM price CLOSED at 11.90 - just a penny below the down trending 200 day (Long term) MAL currently at 11.91. In the meantime, the 50 Day MAL (short term momentum) has recently turned up (at 11.34). It appears there are signs of a change in the wind. It will be interesting to monitor CLOSING prices as the price exceeds the 200 DMAL and the recent 12.10 peak in late October at which point a number of the technical indicators will be falling in line to show an "all ahead full" for those beating the drum
    to buy wREITs.
    Jan 13, 2014. 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Simple Rules That Work In BDC Investing [View article]
    I have looked to BDCs as a diversification allocation to seek Total return (from both income and capital gain returns) from the micro and small cap technology and, more specifically the BioMedPharmaTech (BMPT) sector the equities of which rarely offer any income component. Only a few of the relatively small universe of BDCs with any liquidity focus their financings on this sector. To the extent that you agree that this might be an interesting strategy to use to diversify the returns from investing in fast growing micro and small cap technology companies, I would be assume that I am not alone of those who are followers of your comments to be interested in learning which of the BDCs has a relatively large allocation to this High Growth technology sector.
    Jan 8, 2014. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SDY Can Still Make You Money [View article]
    I used Yahoo Finance to compare past 5 years of SDY,DVY, DIA SPY and DOD.
    DOD was up 150% and the best of the others was up 100%.
    I know DOD does not pay out dividends.
    But would it compare with the others if one were to reinvest dividends in an IRA or other tax free return Retirement account?
    SCHD seems to be offering a good return but does not have the 5 plus year record.
    Too bad someone does not structure an ETF similar to DOD - DOD uses the 10 highest yielding stocks in the 30 DJIA.
    A similar (to DOD) ETF could include the top third of the highest yielding stocks of the SP Aristocrats - equally weighted - and reallocated each quarter.
    I am sure such a structure could easily be computer simulated based on past five years.With a current 60 to 75 stocks qualifying for inclusion in the Aristocrats, the portfolio of 20 to 25 would probably be less volatile than the DOD with only 10 issues.
    I'd be interested to know what such a simulation would suggest in terms of both capital gain, income and standard deviation of monthly changes in NAV (assuming reinvestment of dividends) for the past 60 months .
    My guess it would generate even less volatile returns than the DOD, DVY and SDY and would probably have a higher dividend yield. Thus, a potentially superior risk adjusted CAROR for any period greater than 5 years.
    Nov 30, 2013. 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coronado Biosciences: A Massive Bear Trap In The Making [View article]
    Of the approximately 20 million shares owned by institutional and mutual funds shown in today's yahoo finance summary page for CNDO, to what extent did one or more of these SEC disclosed owners sell some or all of their positions on this past Friday and or on this morning's announcement
    Oct 14, 2013. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Sign For A Little-Known Income Investment [View article]
    If Not the diversified (WF) ETN or the (VE) ETF - basically same stocks in each - too bad you did not choose to share with us your two bits as to which of the 2 dozen or so BDCs you feel merit special attention. ETFs are pretty straight forward - but as I am sure you know, ETNs have important issues of interest to IRA or other tax exempt retirement fund investors.
    Jun 12, 2013. 10:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Interesting Alternative To Boring International Dividend ETFs [View article]
    Another subject which does not seem to be addressed by Seeking Alpha contributors is the concept of Risk Adjusted TOTAL RETURN which includes both income as well as capital gain distributions.
    I would suggest that Seeking Alpha might encourage all contributors writing for SA when including performance numbers to assume - for performance measurement purposes - a REINVESTMENT of all income and other distributions.
    I would also suggest that all contributors provide date as if it were invested in an tax exempt IRA/401k investment portfolio.
    Obviously significantly different net after tax returns will vary all over the place depending on the tax bracket of investors investing in their taxable accounts and considering qualified vs non qualified income from dividends and "value of tax losses vs capital gain distributions.
    Also re the above comments about the yields of CVY and LVL, I DO believe that SA should encourage contributors to use a common "definition" of dividend and yield: Some seem to use
    (A)The total past "trailing" 4 quarters or 12 months of dividend payouts divided by the current price
    whereas others use
    (B) the most recent payout and multiply it by 4 or 12 depending on quarterly or monthly distributions.
    It would be NICE to know which method is being used or compared.
    It DOES make a difference.
    Wile I am at it,I also believe that contributors of articles which discuss dividends might provide a measurement of the standard deviation of the past (up to five years) "Rolling 12 months" of dividend payouts and the range between to high and low measurements as well as the most recent.This will help readers understand the extent to which there is a TREND in terms of dividend payouts over the years. Some like "HIGH YIELDS" others emphasize "Growth of dividend payouts" . There is a difference.
    May 9, 2013. 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • German Blue-Chips Are Increasing Dividend Payouts [View article]
    Which ETFs have equity securities considered to be Blue Chips which have a record of investing in Dividend payers?
    Apr 29, 2013. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: Smart Money Believes In This Cheap Stock [View article]
    Jaimini: I believe your followers - with an interest in XCO - might be interested in any response you might have regarding Josh Young's comments about the "missing analysis of the breakeven point for XCO's drilling, which is likely higher than the current natural gas price" and any thoughts you have regarding XCO's poor "record in drilling uneconomic gas wells".
    At least I would.
    It is hard to believe the 3 sophisticated investors you referenced have not considered such observations - but for whatever reason their Due Diligence researchers have come up with a half full bottle of whisky.
    Apr 26, 2013. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross PIMCO ETF Hits Lifetime High As Bond 'Great Rotation' Debunked [View article]
    Risk adjusted total returns assuming reinvestment of dividend payouts
    Risk adjusted total returns without reinvestment of payouts

    BOND was significantly less volatile than TLT starting at inception of BOND

    TLT dropped 11 % from its 129.7 high to last months low of 113.37.
    During the same time the biggest drawdown for BOND was less than 2% and it hit it's all time high this week while TLT is still 6% below its 2012 high.
    Apr 6, 2013. 03:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Winning Combination Of ETFs: Low Volatility, Dividend Growth, And Momentum [View article]
    Curiosity: Big Louie - above - suggested using SPHD as an additional
    source of finding a common holding.
    If so, it might help unearth some individual issues with higher yield.
    Or just use SPHD and PDP plus appropriate filters to seek greater yield with good technical momentum.
    Have you come up with any additional common holdings when using the 7 ETFs you currently have?
    Is there a service which helps one compare ETF portfolios?
    I like Dividend ETF Channel but not sure if it can do such a search.
    Apr 3, 2013. 03:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 21 BDCs - The Good, The Bad And The Maybe? Part 17: Gladstone Capital [View article]
    The above observation shows you it is important to consider fundamentals and personal knowledge before considering an investment. From a technical "momentum" trend analysis using current and past price action, the only TWO BDCs which are currently trading above (bullish) Both of their 50 and 200 day Moving average lines AND are showing strength (up) for today are FDUS and GAIN.
    on another subject - a thought relative to BDC BUZZ'S worksheet which is really helpful might be to modify the current PAYOUT column to include an evaluation of
    (A) past payout based on analysis of management's ability to generate a consistent stream of past payouts based on the mix of their BDC investments
    (B) Projected future ability of management to maintain or improve payouts during the next 12 months.

    Just a thought

    I note that TCPC declared and paid a dividend of 40 cents on 3/13. At a price of $15.62 with $1.49 training 12 month payouts, the current yield is 9.5%. The above proposed column B would provide an observation as to the potential that the current mix of BDC holdings will enable management to maintain or generate future growth of dividend payout.
    In the caae of BDCl, shows a trailing 12 month payout of about
    12 %. But the 7 past payouts have not been consistent .Thus Column B would provide an assessment as to the expectations of maintaining? or increasing or decreasing the next 4 payments.
    The above are just some thoughts - I am a newcomer to the BDC investment club. I look forward to learning.

    Mar 19, 2013. 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NYSE Margin Debt Stalks All-Time Highs [View article]
    In the good old days using margin allowed retail investors buy $200 of stock on $100 of equity using 50% margin.
    In addition, as I recall, many/most firms did not allow mutual funds to be in margin accounts.
    But now ETFs are in margin accounts and a GROWING number of etfs are leveraged as much as 3 to one and thus
    Still the same except one "Thing" and that is the fact that ETFs are marginable and can be used to backup margin cash to buy a 3 for 1 bull etf thus ending up with a 4 to one equity play and thus now the same amount of margin being used is resulting in significantly more risk and now that short ETFs are being use this adds to the amount of "risky" hedged investments creating a different level of leverage not available to the non professional investors.
    Maybe I am missing something.
    Feb 16, 2013. 10:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking Under The Hood Of The Top 5 Preferred ETFs [View article]
    David: Now that some of the comments above have brought up a few of the new ETF names - PXFX, PDT (closed end fund?), BWF ( Single corporate pfd - not a fund ?, - in addition to these, I am monitoring IPFF, SPFF, FPE .
    Ir would be "of interest" to see a side by side listing of each of their top 10 positions along with each position % equity allocation and show the "what if" equal dollars invested in each fund, which are the biggest to smallest total positions (using just the top 10 of each) of these 9 (?) different a ETFS (Just add the % allocations of any one position in all the 9 selected ETFs and divide by 9 to get an idea of what ones total portfolio of the (9) different portfolios combined.
    Off hand without doing the work I'd bet the WF Preferred would be one of the larger Pfd Positions.
    In any event net after fees, what has been the volatility of the past few years of rolling 12 month periods of dividend payouts. and have there been any trends in this? and what has been the daily, weekly or monthly standard deviation of price changes - ie which have n=been most volatile relative to the steadiness of the 12 month dividend payouts. Just a few ideas. This May 2012 review has been helpful in comparing and now with a new economy, maybe a good time for an update. Thanks
    Feb 13, 2013. 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Platinum Is Outperforming Gold Despite A Large Deficit: Is It A Buy? [View article]
    Why bother with Palladium ?
    When looking at the stock/ETF charts of Gold, Silver and Palladium stocks mentioned above during any of the past (various) one, two and three time periods, the Gold and Silver provide less volatile price trends and are better absolute returns than any of those which are considered to be Palladium.
    Compare short term (less than 12 months) or long term (More than one year) trends of PAL, GLD and SLV, and although Precious minerals are often bought as a hedge vs Equity markets, the GLD and SLV charts have provide a positive trend - not so with any of the Palladium stocks for these short and long term trends.
    Jan 17, 2013. 01:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Still A 'Don't Buy' [View article]
    5 days in June 2011 it closed at or below the 200 DMAL.
    This is NOT to be picky - but to "discuss" the extent to which a "close at or below" a MAL should be considered an action trigger.
    The reason for using a trigger based on a "close at or below" is used to prevent some of the whip saws when sellers finally throw the baby out with the bath water and panic sellers exhaust or reduce their extreme fear by lightening up their positions - and the stock goes back up.
    For example I like to observe the relative positions of the Open and Closing prices. The specialist usually has some control over where he wants to open and close the stock price based on his "book of orders" and his feel for a follow through, After all he has the info as to sellers and buyers and at what volume and at what price. So, as the price is dropping he has a pretty good feel, as to if sellers are "dumping' shares as the stock is moving down. By observing where the specialist chooses to open and close the stock provides some
    expectation that there may be a bullish case being created. Thus, an open high price and a lower closing price indicates an expectation of a continued bearish trend. But if the stock opens DOWN BIG and breaks through a support level (200 day MAL) and then turns around and closes at or above its open price that would be bullish. If it closes above its previous close that would be even more bullish especially if one were to also observe increasing volume as the prices moved higher. Thus, the chart shows that the JUNE break through was accomplished with a couple days with the stock closing at or below the 200 day MAL and continued to close lower than the previous close. But once the specialist felt like opening lower than the previous close but closed it higher and once the volume increased as the stock moved higher, this would be evidence of bills taking charge.
    As some vets will recall, the WSJ used to publish the opening price. There are reasons why the WSJ no longer does this - and it is not just because they do not want to waste ink. Something to think about.
    Oct 26, 2012. 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment