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Anonymous 2

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  • Goldman's Equity Strategist Sees S&P Falling 14% In Q4 [View article]
    So, does this genius suggest that this relatively modest 17% correction will result in a "Buying opportunity" to load up the truck?
    Or does he expect a continued slide down 19% as during the mid year "correction" of 2011?
    Or does he project a real cliff - like a 20 to 50 % Bear Market decline as we had only a few years ago as Bush was leaving office after the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman and (almost) GM and more than a millions of US voters declaring bankruptcy? and creating a buying opportunity
    for those who shorted their way to millions in profits.
    Oct 23, 2012. 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pessimism At Highest Level Since June In AAII Sentiment Survey [View article]
    looks like June also market the low in the SPX
    Oct 18, 2012. 11:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Individual Bonds vs. Bond ETFs: Two Completely Different Animals [View article]
    Does Morningstar have an update to this well written - but now dated 2010 - discussion of the investment in individual (2 to 5 year) corporate fixed income bonds vs "managed" ETFs or Mutual funds focused on maintaining a corporate bond portfolio with an average target maturity of 3 years?
    I believe such an article might be of interest to the many investors who are either retired and or seeking additional income as a complement to their growing dividend equity securities
    Feb 20, 2012. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPDR DJIA ETF Offers Better Risk/Return Profile Than A 'Safe' 6% Yield Fixed Income Portfolio [View article]
    I like to use the 50 and 200 day MAL to guide me with the timing of fundamentally selected investments:
    (A) long 1/3rd of a position if and when the price (of DIA, for example) is above DIA's 50 Day MAL.
    (B)Long 1/3rd if ad when DIA's price is at or above its 200 day MAL
    (C) long 1/3rd if and when the 50 day is at or above the 200 DAYB MAL
    Hao Jin's strategy could be modified to include using the 4 fixed income ETFs and the one equity DIA ETF as a portfolio of five positions total allocation with up to 20% invested in each of the 5 ETFs if and when the above criteria are applied for each (1/3rd) position.
    Thus, When fully invested each of the 5 different ETF positions would include three separate position - total 15 positions representing a 1/15th allocation (6.666% of the current equity in the account) at the time each position was entered.
    This strategy enables an investor to initiate the strategy at any time based on which of the criteria are indicating 1/3 or 2/3 or full position in each and every one of the five ETF positions.
    Those who wish can use a charting service to determine how such a program would keep one invested during the past 3, 5 or ten years.
    Currently
    HYG would be a full position
    PFF would be a 1/3rd position (Today it closed above its 50 day MAL.)
    EMB would be a full position (Today it went below but closed above it's 50 Day MAL)
    LQD would be a Full position
    DIA would be a full position (since the 50 day moved above the 200 day on the 21st of Dec).
    Jan 4, 2012. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic ETF Portfolio To Start 2012 [View article]
    Why not add columns showing date, price, past 12 mos dividend, yield, estimated next 12 months dividend, yield.

    This would help those interested in investing in stocks with management who have n interest in making growth of dividends an important component in an investor's total return - and this is important to the significantly fast growing number of investors - including retired investors, seeking a growing income stream from their investments.
    Jan 2, 2012. 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Super Bad Committee's Quest To Weaken The Economy [View article]
    This isn't exactly political, but I think we need someone with Farage's ability to say it like it is to lead this country!

    http://bit.ly/w586Ou

    Let's all forward this message on to YOUR duly elected representatives
    Nov 21, 2011. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long-Term Chart of S&P 500 [View article]
    A 10% CORRECTION FRO EARLY MAY HIGH OF 12,876 IS 11,588.
    THIS "JUST HAPPENS" TO BE WITHIN 33 POINTS OF THE 11,555 INTRA-DAY LOW IN MID MARCH.
    AND LESS THAN A 100 POINTS BELOW THE CURRENT 200 DAY MAL OF 11687.
    FOR BULLS, GET SOME CASH READY TO COMMIT TO A PERFECT STORM OF PANIC SELLING DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO OF A PANIC SELLING WHICH (HOPEFULLY TEMPORARILY) DROPS INTRA DAY TO THIS BREAK BELOW THE CURRENT 200 DAY MAL LEVEL.
    Jun 10, 2011. 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sector ETF Valuations and Momentum: Energy and Industrials Look Attractive [View article]
    Geof:
    You could have used etfreplay.com and saved you and your readers a lot of time.
    I have been using them (including etfscreen.com) to help me get actionable indicators.
    These two sites enable one to "see" trends and more important ewarly indications of changes in trends (AS suggested by "tweedn" above.
    Feb 14, 2011. 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Just One ETF: Controlling Risk Through Hedge Fund Replication [View article]
    Great article. It is interesting that the sescurity had similar problems as many others during last years march through June 1st time period.
    probably no comment can be given - after all it happened to many other stocks and etfs. The Black Swan is always out there. A risk pretty hard to hedge against.
    Feb 12, 2011. 03:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On Israelsen's 7Twelve Portfolio [View article]
    What is difference in the "management of the positions" with regard to Tactical and Strategic?
    Please explain the "flat line performance in 2009 for your two Tactical portfolios
    how often do you reallocate to the 8.3% positions?
    if monthly, are the reallocations based on last bus day of month values?
    If quarterly, would that improve returns? overall volatility of returns?
    what criteria went into selecting the specific alt ETFs for the asset classes?
    Oct 6, 2010. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts on John Mauldin's Recent Dismal Outlook on Employment and the Economy [View article]
    Speaking of Hussman - if and when you have had an opportunity to review/critique his recent comments - beginning with his past two quarterly letters, I am sure I am not alone in k=looking forward to a critique of John's recent rather bearish words of wisdom.
    His words are relatively original in that his comments, conclusions and opinions are more based on his own rather analysis than on his comments on other's thoughts.
    And he is investing his/his investors money using his views rather than being an just an observer.
    Jul 7, 2010. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Economic Concerns Sink Stocks, Send Major Averages to New 2010 Lows [View article]
    The two Johns have spoken
    Hussman and Mauldin
    Charlie Rose needs to interview them so that the whole world starts to see the world without rose colored glasses.
    Jun 30, 2010. 02:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thursday's Sell-Off: Bad News for Bulls [View article]
    For both individual stocks and their benchmark sector index
    5 MA criteria - bullish if up or above & bearish if down or below

    50 day sma trending up (last level higher than the day before)
    200 say sma trending up (ditto)
    50 day above 200 day level
    Price above 50 day sma
    Price above 200 day sma
    Do the same for the benchmark index
    each criteria creates more reason to be bullish or bearish
    If the criteria of BOTH the stock and its benchmark/sector are complementing each other larger allocations can be added
    sounds easy - and statistically probably works. but if you use Fundamentals to select investments these signals help determine allocation of additions or liquidations of positions.
    Jun 25, 2010. 03:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 'Big Time' ETFs Below Their 200-Day Trendlines [View article]
    USING MA DATA TO HELP TIME ENTRY AND EXIT of a fundamentally researched security investment.
    keep it simple five bull/bear signals in any one security - stock or etf
    The following are bullish signals
    1.stk price above 50 day
    2. stk price above 200 day
    3. Fifty day above 200 day
    4. 50 day price/value > than the day before close price.
    5. 200 day price/value > than the day before close price
    The opposite of each of the above are bearish signals
    This works best if you also track an appropriate benchmark sector or industry and act (Buy or sell) if and when the above signals in this benchmark sector/industry index are also showing similar signals.
    Thus you expand the number of confirming signals from 5 to 10.
    Obviously one could use the exponential MA lines if one wants
    to act in anticipation of a change in direction.

    If one were to act bullish or bearish only when their fundamental research also complimented the decision to buy or sell, then these signals help create an unemotional method of building and or trimming a potential position.
    May 9, 2010. 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend ETFs: Aristocrat or Achievement? [View article]
    Where does one find an updated spreadsheet of "growing dividend stocks" (such as the aristocrats but including those with 10 years of increasing dividends and more) which would include columns showing:
    (a) the last quarterly dividend declared,
    (b) the x div date,
    (c) the current price,
    (d) The YIELD based the most recent declared plus previous past 3 quarterly payments,
    (e) the annualized current dividend (using only the most recent declared dividend X 4),
    (f) the yield based on the current annualized dividend,
    (g) The Estimated next 12 months of dividends including the last declared plus the next three estimated quarterly dividends, and
    (h) the current yield based on this estimated future 12 months of dividend payout.
    (i) the previous calendar year (2009) payout percent
    (j) the current year (2010) estimated payout percent
    (k) the forecasted year 2011) payout
    (l) Last cal year Actual EPS
    (m) current year earnings 2009 to date
    (n) current estimates for full year 2010

    I believe this data would be nice to see for all the listed dividend growth stock companies
    I also see no reason to not do the same for all the ETFs (I have about 40 I am monitoring) and MFs which are being marketed as providing investors who seek investments in Growing dividend companies or in portfolios of such companies.

    Feedback??
    Mar 10, 2010. 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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