M dub's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/300934/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174122-wpp-s-sorrell-online-ad-spending-should-reach-25-of-total?source=feed#comment-785084 785084 Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:02:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133511-thain-calls-lewis-a-liar-bofa-saga-continues?source=feed#comment-482024 482024 Wed, 29 Apr 2009 00:17:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124295-s-p-p-e-ratio-is-low-but-has-been-lower?source=feed#comment-414351 414351
However, the problem with *everything* right now is precisely what the point is with this chart - that is, look at historical data and performance and predict future results. Problem is, this only works when it does then it doesn't.

The 1929 stock market crash was induced by a speculative stock lending bubble, some speculative lending, perhaps Smoot Hawley etc. The 1982 recession was energy and inflation. While it has to be something, I would say the massive credit fueled bubble now I is much broader - housing, consumer, commercial RE, and bank / finance companies. My point is that this time around, Trailing Earnings and future earnings will barely resemble one another. The "cheapness" of equities can be a complete mind *&ck as earnings get decimated and also as the government bails out creditors at the expense of equity holders.

For common stocks, in 2009, past data and future results are not a smart man's game. ]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 11:42:40 -0500
However, the problem with *everything* right now is precisely what the point is with this chart - that is, look at historical data and performance and predict future results. Problem is, this only works when it does then it doesn't.

The 1929 stock market crash was induced by a speculative stock lending bubble, some speculative lending, perhaps Smoot Hawley etc. The 1982 recession was energy and inflation. While it has to be something, I would say the massive credit fueled bubble now I is much broader - housing, consumer, commercial RE, and bank / finance companies. My point is that this time around, Trailing Earnings and future earnings will barely resemble one another. The "cheapness" of equities can be a complete mind *&ck as earnings get decimated and also as the government bails out creditors at the expense of equity holders.

For common stocks, in 2009, past data and future results are not a smart man's game. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121694-eight-reasons-bank-of-america-is-going-to-20?source=feed#comment-406564 406564
Your mindset is of sentiment play, and given that BAC's assets at BV vs. what they are probably worth, basically makes it obama's call. MBS purchases are coinciding with this silly stress test nonsense for obvious reasons, mainly to determine what price will clear the market without killing all the equity in any given bank. Its going to be one or the other unless they just decide to pay par for everything. The will have to take someone with them, and maybe citi is the only one.

But you're eluding to something that no one knows, though i'm just speculating you're looking for dumb money bait. ]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 18:55:27 -0500
Your mindset is of sentiment play, and given that BAC's assets at BV vs. what they are probably worth, basically makes it obama's call. MBS purchases are coinciding with this silly stress test nonsense for obvious reasons, mainly to determine what price will clear the market without killing all the equity in any given bank. Its going to be one or the other unless they just decide to pay par for everything. The will have to take someone with them, and maybe citi is the only one.

But you're eluding to something that no one knows, though i'm just speculating you're looking for dumb money bait. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123211-when-warren-buffett-speaks-it-s-still-worth-listening?source=feed#comment-406065 406065 Fri, 27 Feb 2009 13:11:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122679-winners-and-losers-from-oil-contango?source=feed#comment-403952 403952
btw, isn't Cushing at capacity for all intensive purposes? I don't think there's enough there to crash the spot market but it does make the carry trade more difficult. ]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 00:43:40 -0500
btw, isn't Cushing at capacity for all intensive purposes? I don't think there's enough there to crash the spot market but it does make the carry trade more difficult. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122458-obama-s-speech-struck-the-right-tone?source=feed#comment-403286 403286 Wed, 25 Feb 2009 13:26:00 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122563-thoughts-on-last-night-s-speech-by-the-president?source=feed#comment-403268 403268
When reading the stimulus specifics all I could see was the work of some really dense socialists. Watching the speech, all i could hear was an obviously intelligent man pretending to spin it into the left middle america that elected him.

Unfortunately for O'bama, he isn't in an economic period where he can remain in a delusion that what got him here has anything to do with the serious problems at hand. What i realized: He's got nothing. And playing with Reid and Peloisi are like giving matches to pyros. He appears to only be positioning for 2012.

Stock market, look out below. ]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 13:14:38 -0500
When reading the stimulus specifics all I could see was the work of some really dense socialists. Watching the speech, all i could hear was an obviously intelligent man pretending to spin it into the left middle america that elected him.

Unfortunately for O'bama, he isn't in an economic period where he can remain in a delusion that what got him here has anything to do with the serious problems at hand. What i realized: He's got nothing. And playing with Reid and Peloisi are like giving matches to pyros. He appears to only be positioning for 2012.

Stock market, look out below. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122205-fiscal-responsibility-obama-takes-the-reins?source=feed#comment-403178 403178
1) including the cost of the war where it was not before, thereby using a somewhat inflated starting deficit number and 2) taking credit for the reduction of expenses as we withdraw from iraq.

that spending was going to go down despite who the president was. he is only being coy by calling this responsible to include it in the deficit, as he only wants personal credit for it.

Now, it is technically correct that war spending is part of the deficit, however, after all this pork money down the hole stimulus all he will be able to show is that he reduced the war spending.

it is his only hope for showing how he will not be the president that brought back socialistic welfare and big government. good thing people are stupid.

the stock market isn't so dumb, though, so don't be surprised as we take a dive.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 12:21:59 -0500
1) including the cost of the war where it was not before, thereby using a somewhat inflated starting deficit number and 2) taking credit for the reduction of expenses as we withdraw from iraq.

that spending was going to go down despite who the president was. he is only being coy by calling this responsible to include it in the deficit, as he only wants personal credit for it.

Now, it is technically correct that war spending is part of the deficit, however, after all this pork money down the hole stimulus all he will be able to show is that he reduced the war spending.

it is his only hope for showing how he will not be the president that brought back socialistic welfare and big government. good thing people are stupid.

the stock market isn't so dumb, though, so don't be surprised as we take a dive.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119872-here-s-what-s-wrong-with-the-banking-sector?source=feed#comment-384509 384509
Or, if you will, i'd compare it to the Chinese milk that was pumped with melamine, which was good for the company and its profits but killed (literally) its customers. The powdered milk market was no bubble industry, but when you murder your customers it sure looks like one afterwards.

Now we all know what was happening to regulatory capital and accounting equity and all the of balance sheet CDO's and the funny money games and "models" where past performance apparently guarantees future results......... since banks want fees and haven't desired the low returning bore called lending for while, they leveraged themselves to the hilt with "fee" (wink wink) income, and that indeed was a bubble.

Overconfidence at its worst, especially after how we shrugged of 9-11 without a bruise.

But if they weren't feeding poison to their customers for four years like a tube-fed goose being fattened for foie-gras i'm not sure we would have ended up exactly all the way down here in economic hell, so far so fast. ]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 16:01:12 -0500
Or, if you will, i'd compare it to the Chinese milk that was pumped with melamine, which was good for the company and its profits but killed (literally) its customers. The powdered milk market was no bubble industry, but when you murder your customers it sure looks like one afterwards.

Now we all know what was happening to regulatory capital and accounting equity and all the of balance sheet CDO's and the funny money games and "models" where past performance apparently guarantees future results......... since banks want fees and haven't desired the low returning bore called lending for while, they leveraged themselves to the hilt with "fee" (wink wink) income, and that indeed was a bubble.

Overconfidence at its worst, especially after how we shrugged of 9-11 without a bruise.

But if they weren't feeding poison to their customers for four years like a tube-fed goose being fattened for foie-gras i'm not sure we would have ended up exactly all the way down here in economic hell, so far so fast. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116144-why-goobay-makes-sense?source=feed#comment-364034 364034
Auction has cut off its hand to spite its face (amazon). Absolute valuations are better once you know where the bottom will be.

Dare to say where the bottom in auction earnings will be and when the inflection point will be? Cause i'd like to know. ]]> Fri, 23 Jan 2009 10:01:10 -0500
Auction has cut off its hand to spite its face (amazon). Absolute valuations are better once you know where the bottom will be.

Dare to say where the bottom in auction earnings will be and when the inflection point will be? Cause i'd like to know. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116181-the-fallacy-of-floating-exchange-rates?source=feed#comment-363966 363966
If anything, we seem to be in a period of de-leveraging today, so this part of the argument seems weak, or bit late if we are talking about position unwinding.

Of course, you are quoting Robert Mundell so you have said enough. ]]> Fri, 23 Jan 2009 09:07:45 -0500
If anything, we seem to be in a period of de-leveraging today, so this part of the argument seems weak, or bit late if we are talking about position unwinding.

Of course, you are quoting Robert Mundell so you have said enough. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114243-ge-lose-aaa-rating-or-cut-dividend?source=feed#comment-353305 353305 i see what you are saying but i was trying to address the op's question of dividend and credit quality, not earnings downside. hopefully no one really sees GE as anything other than a bank in terms of the risk on investment, for if not then they own the common equity of an industrial with 13.5x debt/ebitda (yikes!) but as i said with a government backstop on the bank all is well and investors can put their head in the sand for a while.

i agree that the spin coming out of there is of epic proportions given the severity of conditions, not just economically but also at GE. They point to 70% of earnings coming from service revenue, and that's all nice, but what of all that (seemingly) ginormous operating leverage (ie high fixed overhead) as orders / backlog go down with cancelled orders? No, the gov't is not (yet) backstopping GE industrial, but who's to say they don't sell a few extra bonds at GMAC and upstream some cash dividends to parent?

Even that's not a stretch to consider, as even management decided to keep at the parent level buffet's $3b of preferred equity, rather than funnel it down to gmac when it needed it the most.

they want a stable rich dividend and AAA rating, and with government gty'ing the bank, why not? Its all possible, unless of course the sovereign credit rating goes down.......




On Jan 11 05:00 PM jegan ;-) wrote:

> mdub..Aside from the excessive use of CAPS, I agree with Diegojames...
> (Also agree with the leek pie and salmon)... GE has too many divisions
> that are subject to teh whims of our present economic collapse. And
> the financial guarantee only really applies to GMAC, just part of
> GE. What's the near-term upside for GE? The poor quality appliance
> division? Aerospace? Not the reconstituted finance division! That
> really only leaves the industrials. And maybe in a year that might
> start to work if our new President can actually get the infrastructure
> play moving, or if China gets back in gear.... Remember that these
> **big** projects have a lot of hurdles, EPA, lawsuits, contracts,
> engineering etc... and they don;t turn on a dime. Having said that,
> GE does seem to have activity in China now that might ramp up. The
> question there is, why buy GE and drag around everything else, when
> you can buy ABB or SI which are already working well and don't have
> the rest of the business to drag along.
>
> jegan ;-)]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 10:58:35 -0500 i see what you are saying but i was trying to address the op's question of dividend and credit quality, not earnings downside. hopefully no one really sees GE as anything other than a bank in terms of the risk on investment, for if not then they own the common equity of an industrial with 13.5x debt/ebitda (yikes!) but as i said with a government backstop on the bank all is well and investors can put their head in the sand for a while.

i agree that the spin coming out of there is of epic proportions given the severity of conditions, not just economically but also at GE. They point to 70% of earnings coming from service revenue, and that's all nice, but what of all that (seemingly) ginormous operating leverage (ie high fixed overhead) as orders / backlog go down with cancelled orders? No, the gov't is not (yet) backstopping GE industrial, but who's to say they don't sell a few extra bonds at GMAC and upstream some cash dividends to parent?

Even that's not a stretch to consider, as even management decided to keep at the parent level buffet's $3b of preferred equity, rather than funnel it down to gmac when it needed it the most.

they want a stable rich dividend and AAA rating, and with government gty'ing the bank, why not? Its all possible, unless of course the sovereign credit rating goes down.......




On Jan 11 05:00 PM jegan ;-) wrote:

> mdub..Aside from the excessive use of CAPS, I agree with Diegojames...
> (Also agree with the leek pie and salmon)... GE has too many divisions
> that are subject to teh whims of our present economic collapse. And
> the financial guarantee only really applies to GMAC, just part of
> GE. What's the near-term upside for GE? The poor quality appliance
> division? Aerospace? Not the reconstituted finance division! That
> really only leaves the industrials. And maybe in a year that might
> start to work if our new President can actually get the infrastructure
> play moving, or if China gets back in gear.... Remember that these
> **big** projects have a lot of hurdles, EPA, lawsuits, contracts,
> engineering etc... and they don;t turn on a dime. Having said that,
> GE does seem to have activity in China now that might ramp up. The
> question there is, why buy GE and drag around everything else, when
> you can buy ABB or SI which are already working well and don't have
> the rest of the business to drag along.
>
> jegan ;-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114243-ge-lose-aaa-rating-or-cut-dividend?source=feed#comment-352614 352614 CP). Financial flexibility by taxpayers means GE dividend needs to go nowhere.

As a taxpayer, this is ludicrous, but as an investor what could be better than to have your guarantor be big daddy? ]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 15:47:37 -0500 CP). Financial flexibility by taxpayers means GE dividend needs to go nowhere.

As a taxpayer, this is ludicrous, but as an investor what could be better than to have your guarantor be big daddy? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112890-why-a-psychological-bottom-will-lag-any-real-recovery?source=feed#comment-343786 343786
More importantly the boomers have pretty much only ever known a bull market for their whole investing lifetime. I haven't seen a bum rush for the door where everyone is yelling "i'm gettin out while there is still something left". Is it still to come?

Indeed there is a lot of hope on all that is being thrown into the kitchen sink in of monetary and fiscal policy. ]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 20:32:02 -0500
More importantly the boomers have pretty much only ever known a bull market for their whole investing lifetime. I haven't seen a bum rush for the door where everyone is yelling "i'm gettin out while there is still something left". Is it still to come?

Indeed there is a lot of hope on all that is being thrown into the kitchen sink in of monetary and fiscal policy. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111541-market-watch-beware-the-ides-of-february?source=feed#comment-334016 334016 Nice article, nice call. I also think there will be a much bigger test of the low we printed recently. And people don't even know how desperate times will become, sadly. The american mind is very soft, and until they can get "toughened up" a bit they won't have the intentional fortitude to swallow some bitter tasting medicine. First the market psyche builds in a 1990 style recession, then 1982, then 70's style, and so on. But this is the perfect storm, and we're pressing further out to sea based on all past storms. We'll see how it works out.

At the minimum its going to be a deep world recession, but to some it will be worse. We, O keepers of giant debt balances, may be that someone.

See you in Feb.]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 12:02:52 -0500 Nice article, nice call. I also think there will be a much bigger test of the low we printed recently. And people don't even know how desperate times will become, sadly. The american mind is very soft, and until they can get "toughened up" a bit they won't have the intentional fortitude to swallow some bitter tasting medicine. First the market psyche builds in a 1990 style recession, then 1982, then 70's style, and so on. But this is the perfect storm, and we're pressing further out to sea based on all past storms. We'll see how it works out.

At the minimum its going to be a deep world recession, but to some it will be worse. We, O keepers of giant debt balances, may be that someone.

See you in Feb.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110940-exploring-madoff-s-ponzi-scheme-will-unveil-the-causes-of-this-global-monetary-crisis?source=feed#comment-332498 332498
So it begs the question if there is a difference between over-leveraging and mismanageding assets and outright stealing - and the answer is YES.

If all your money has been in Gold bullion or some other value of storage since 1990, perhaps you have a soap box to stand on, but i'm guessing you put your money in the bank like everyone else because you believed in the economy and government that would backstop it.

As for your currency, if you made a conscious decision to be part of the economy and have a job that pays american dollars (maybe you're doing this for free) then you come across as a "told-you'so" hypocrite. ]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 17:35:27 -0500
So it begs the question if there is a difference between over-leveraging and mismanageding assets and outright stealing - and the answer is YES.

If all your money has been in Gold bullion or some other value of storage since 1990, perhaps you have a soap box to stand on, but i'm guessing you put your money in the bank like everyone else because you believed in the economy and government that would backstop it.

As for your currency, if you made a conscious decision to be part of the economy and have a job that pays american dollars (maybe you're doing this for free) then you come across as a "told-you'so" hypocrite. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111222-what-happens-to-print-ad-dollars-when-a-newspaper-stops-publishing-in-print?source=feed#comment-332467 332467
Somewhere there will be a need for local news, perhaps the journalistic quality will not be where it was, but for a while those ultra local small business ad dollars will go away but eventually come back as a new accepted local delivery format comes on line and can actually spur sales. The latter is a challenge as local businesses compete with online shopping and the like. ]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 17:06:10 -0500
Somewhere there will be a need for local news, perhaps the journalistic quality will not be where it was, but for a while those ultra local small business ad dollars will go away but eventually come back as a new accepted local delivery format comes on line and can actually spur sales. The latter is a challenge as local businesses compete with online shopping and the like. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111272-0-financing-doesn-t-mean-it-s-free?source=feed#comment-332453 332453
The irony with the average voter is that they are starting to "get" the deficit because they (themselves) are up to their eyeballs in debt and are wondering how / who is going to pay for it.

They're not sure how it works exactly, interest rates that are determined by the guy with a beard, we've made it till this point without having to know the dollar is just a paper currency (hey, we're americans....we were born better than everyone else, don't you know that?)

and so i think it is ultimately that american attitude eventually dig the hole and kill the dollar and make your predictions on China a certainty.

Hard lessons can not be taught, only learned, and we will be no different. ]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 16:50:06 -0500
The irony with the average voter is that they are starting to "get" the deficit because they (themselves) are up to their eyeballs in debt and are wondering how / who is going to pay for it.

They're not sure how it works exactly, interest rates that are determined by the guy with a beard, we've made it till this point without having to know the dollar is just a paper currency (hey, we're americans....we were born better than everyone else, don't you know that?)

and so i think it is ultimately that american attitude eventually dig the hole and kill the dollar and make your predictions on China a certainty.

Hard lessons can not be taught, only learned, and we will be no different. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111180-fed-creates-bank-margin-squeeze?source=feed#comment-332438 332438
The inflation and dollar comment are valid, and this has been the case for quite a while. Desperate depression avoidance, which has serious inflation/paper currency consequences.

Re the chinese: their investment is now pfd. equity....the only buyer of UST now is the fed so they will know if the Chinese are trying to unwind their positions (i.e not gonna happen). So all we need is new money.

Re: Money markets: The government is everything right now. There are no real "money markets", it's all fed and treasury risk now, which i don't think changes from 1% to .25% or lower.

Banks aren't going to lend but they weren't at 1% either, so again, the fed already said they will originate residential mortgages. The banks are irrelevant anyways, there is one relevant balance sheet.

So what is the point about the prime rate since its mostly there for perception? I think whats happening in the libor markets and mortgage markets is more relevant.

]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 16:30:13 -0500
The inflation and dollar comment are valid, and this has been the case for quite a while. Desperate depression avoidance, which has serious inflation/paper currency consequences.

Re the chinese: their investment is now pfd. equity....the only buyer of UST now is the fed so they will know if the Chinese are trying to unwind their positions (i.e not gonna happen). So all we need is new money.

Re: Money markets: The government is everything right now. There are no real "money markets", it's all fed and treasury risk now, which i don't think changes from 1% to .25% or lower.

Banks aren't going to lend but they weren't at 1% either, so again, the fed already said they will originate residential mortgages. The banks are irrelevant anyways, there is one relevant balance sheet.

So what is the point about the prime rate since its mostly there for perception? I think whats happening in the libor markets and mortgage markets is more relevant.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109979-how-to-start-your-own-hedge-fund?source=feed#comment-325208 325208 ]]> Wed, 10 Dec 2008 00:08:46 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108809-harvard-s-portfolio-top-heavy-in-international-etfs?source=feed#comment-321987 321987
its from the school of thought of if you like it at $100, you'll be smitten at $50, committed at $25, maried at $10 and kill yourself from a broken heart at $2. and i think this tradgedy will make the news.
]]> Fri, 05 Dec 2008 15:07:07 -0500
its from the school of thought of if you like it at $100, you'll be smitten at $50, committed at $25, maried at $10 and kill yourself from a broken heart at $2. and i think this tradgedy will make the news.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109352-the-dollar-vs-treasuries-dichotomy?source=feed#comment-321878 321878
"Hey, we're the government, we can shorten our duration and massively increase our refinancing risk for global depression scenario...why not, if the banks can go bust why can't we join the party?"

Well, its the only trick left in their book and now its gone.... ]]> Fri, 05 Dec 2008 13:29:39 -0500
"Hey, we're the government, we can shorten our duration and massively increase our refinancing risk for global depression scenario...why not, if the banks can go bust why can't we join the party?"

Well, its the only trick left in their book and now its gone.... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106445-general-electric-genuine-risk-of-collapse?source=feed#comment-310421 310421 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 21:09:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105984-general-electric-gets-a-140b-bailout-what-s-the-point-of-aaa?source=feed#comment-310409 310409 b) GE had less revolver backup lines than its CP outstanding. this was knows a long while ago, but what other idiotic moves are waiting in the black box? this sense of infallability won't reflect itself in the quality of the underlying assets? come on...
c) go with what got you here: lack of transparency. the captain is obviously going down with the ship - and with the way their PR machine (hi Russell) is handling the spin, and it is taking PUBLIC money, you guys better watch your backside before the cuffs go on. ]]> Wed, 19 Nov 2008 20:39:25 -0500 b) GE had less revolver backup lines than its CP outstanding. this was knows a long while ago, but what other idiotic moves are waiting in the black box? this sense of infallability won't reflect itself in the quality of the underlying assets? come on...
c) go with what got you here: lack of transparency. the captain is obviously going down with the ship - and with the way their PR machine (hi Russell) is handling the spin, and it is taking PUBLIC money, you guys better watch your backside before the cuffs go on. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106668-four-commonsense-clues-to-a-genuine-market-bottom?source=feed#comment-309354 309354
The aunt judy contrarian signals i really agree with - and we aren't close to being there yet. All the expert (ie dumb) financial planners on TV are telling boomers to wait it out. The market still has a world of pain to inflict on this aging herd who are still confident they have a 10-20 year outlook. When the S&P hits 650 they may start puking en masse, it will be time to start paying attention. Once they have said "uncle" i'm in.

The one thing you have to think about - is that this economic situation will be a drawing line between the haves and have nots - and i'm speaking of debt. So in a sense there will be two "equity markets" to think about going forward. We have not seen debt like this - personal, corporate, government - and it is possible the bottom may not look like what we are used to seeing. I've dealt with LBO financing a lot and the one thing i will say is that it takes a long time once you are full on debt and start to have stuff blowing up around you, to get that down takes a long time and your competitors start leaving you in the dust if not smelling blood and starting an all out assault. A list of the nonbank S&P 500 who have debt to cash flow under and over 3.0 or so and no near term refinancing issues -now that would be a good index to track.

We haven't even started with stories about potential problems with China funding our gov't bailout sprees, war debt and trade deficits. No one is even thinking about inflation yet - but are printing money like its free.

Seems to me we still have a lot of mental baggage to work through and haven't even booked an appointment with the shrink yet. If I would corrolate to the Kubler Ross scale en.wikipedia.org/wiki/..., i'd have to say john q public is nearing def con 3. ]]> Tue, 18 Nov 2008 18:19:20 -0500
The aunt judy contrarian signals i really agree with - and we aren't close to being there yet. All the expert (ie dumb) financial planners on TV are telling boomers to wait it out. The market still has a world of pain to inflict on this aging herd who are still confident they have a 10-20 year outlook. When the S&P hits 650 they may start puking en masse, it will be time to start paying attention. Once they have said "uncle" i'm in.

The one thing you have to think about - is that this economic situation will be a drawing line between the haves and have nots - and i'm speaking of debt. So in a sense there will be two "equity markets" to think about going forward. We have not seen debt like this - personal, corporate, government - and it is possible the bottom may not look like what we are used to seeing. I've dealt with LBO financing a lot and the one thing i will say is that it takes a long time once you are full on debt and start to have stuff blowing up around you, to get that down takes a long time and your competitors start leaving you in the dust if not smelling blood and starting an all out assault. A list of the nonbank S&P 500 who have debt to cash flow under and over 3.0 or so and no near term refinancing issues -now that would be a good index to track.

We haven't even started with stories about potential problems with China funding our gov't bailout sprees, war debt and trade deficits. No one is even thinking about inflation yet - but are printing money like its free.

Seems to me we still have a lot of mental baggage to work through and haven't even booked an appointment with the shrink yet. If I would corrolate to the Kubler Ross scale en.wikipedia.org/wiki/..., i'd have to say john q public is nearing def con 3. ]]>