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drcarl

drcarl
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  • Proof Of A Structural Change In The U.S. Workforce [View article]
    It is rare to disagree with you Doug, because I respect your work and you stay "closer to the data" than most analysts. However, I think age structure changes account for more of the change in LF participation than you give credit. Multiple studies have shown the effect of aging on LFP to range between 35% and 50% of the total decline.

    Your focus on the 25 to 54 age group helps a lot - again, I think you do solid work here - but changes within that broad age category remain "uncontrolled" by narrowing the focus.

    LFP is a troubling feature of the economy, and this affects all economically advanced societies. Here in the U.S. we saw a huge rise in LFP as women completed ever-higher levels of education, attitudes changed and they went into careers (an oversimplification, but you get my meaning). Some of that may be unwinding, and simple LFP rates for females show this. But secular and cyclical are all mixed together right now.

    Bottom line: I don't think it is time to label us a nation with an increasing share of slackers. I know that is hyperbole, but hey, I'm likely to get called stupid anyway, so why not hoist a lightening rod?
    Aug 13 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • CEFs: An Opportunity In A Nuveen Floating Rate Fund [View article]
    Great job, Doug.
    Aug 5 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Held Everything [View article]
    I have to agree with CapeCap, this is one of the best I have read on this site in a long time. I especially like your use of analogies.

    But here's the other side: Selling brought the other author some peace of mind. This comes at a high potential cost; he is likely to learn this painfully. (I know I did learn this once.) Holding "today" and every day brings Eli (and me) peace of mind as well. The chances are small that this choice comes at a HIGH potential cost. Instead I think "holders" (me included) face a low risk, but over a long period of time.

    I'm fine with that risk, but someday I will want to tap those assets. Don Henley said, "There are not luggage racks on hearses." In anticipation of that (final) journey, I may want to sell all. That will then bring me peace of mind.
    Jul 30 08:02 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Diversification Dissertation For Income Investors [View article]
    For me, 20 stocks represent the right number that I can follow intently. I limit myself to no more than 12% in any one issue. I also qualitatively limit exposure to one industry; many of my stocks are multi-industry, so a number-based rule isn't reasonable.

    I don't worry about international exposure, choosing instead to invest in companies that do business domestically and internationally.

    My guiding rule is to know what I own and why I own it. The great Peter Lynch first said this and I think it makes sense for me. And, I want to own things that allow me to sleep well at night. So it may be that the biggest shortcoming in my portfolio is a lack of risk. As long as I know that and accept it, I'm ok.
    Jul 30 07:49 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Staying Bullish As The Company Raises Its Dividend [View article]
    Hi Heather. Nice article but you mention a "monthly dividend" in the summary. I think you mean quarterly.
    Jul 11 07:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About IBM No One Comes Out To Say [View article]
    Excellent analysis. This company is shrinking in a controlled way that sustains investor value (i.e., stock price) over market cycles. But - and this is my problem with Big Blue - this cannot go on forever. Nor will it. Management has to make a difficult, and I think unprecedented, shift from controlled revenue shrinkage (with increased earnings) into new products, new ideas, new everything that produces growth. There is a law of nature that applies here: Grow or die. IBM has managed to shrink and remain strong, but growth is an inevitable requirement.
    Jul 4 08:23 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selecting The 'Best' ETFs For Dividends [View article]
    Terrific analysis. My number-one takeaway was the high correlation between all the etfs studied. Selecting one does a pretty good job in this universe; more than one may not be needed by an investor like me.
    Jul 4 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And On-Chip Memory [View article]
    I have stopped following Intel, but I kept you, Russ, on the "follow" list because of articles like this. The phrase "in the suburbs of that magic transition" was jangling metaphor that made me smile. Quite a mastery of English, my friend.

    Your premise may be completely wrong, but you deserve a wide following because its history, logic and language. Thank you.
    Jul 1 08:24 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDC Pricing And The Russell Indices: Part 4 [View article]
    Thank you for your clear and concise work. I follow you closely because of your quality work.
    Jun 24 07:05 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another High Income Covered Call CEF Portfolio [View article]
    JWAYMOO:

    Interestingly my thinking and experience are nearly the same as yours. I am not yet retired, but my simulations mirror what you write.
    Jun 23 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties Preferred Stock, Opportunities And Risks [View article]
    Thanks Doug, a clear, balanced article as usual. This is why I follow you.
    Jun 23 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eye On The Market Broadcast: Household Incomes And Inflation [View article]
    Congratulations on the invitation. You always provide valuable information in clear graphic form. That is why I am a follower.
    Jun 23 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Creating A Portfolio [View article]
    David,

    My portfolio is very similar. But now I ponder the future of those investments which - through capital appreciation - have a low yield. I have a bunch of MSFT and JNJ. I am wondering "Should I re-direct these funds into higher yielding investments?"

    We economists like to talk about "opportunity costs" and they are getting pretty high for MSFT and JNJ.

    What will you do if companies like these continue to appreciate and their current yields decline?
    Jun 6 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees: Is Dividend Growth Alone Enough? [View article]
    You say: "But if interest rates rise, it could still be sensible to migrate an overweight position in dividend equity towards fixed-income."

    I assume you mean that "If interest rates rise, at some point when they appear to have stabilized at a higher level, it could be sensible to migrate …." I cannot accept that you advise shifts into fixed-income in anticipation of interest rates rising.

    I found this a thought-provoking article, but that quoted comment just caused me to stop and say, "whaaat?"
    Apr 29 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Portfolio: Spring Checkup And Semi-Annual Review [View article]
    Dave,

    I sold my last Intel in January, too. It was once my largest holding. The money was placed in a new position in Realty Income.

    Nice write up. I love your book too.
    Apr 8 10:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
266 Comments
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