Seeking Alpha

drcarl

drcarl
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View drcarl's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Chevron At 5% Dividend Yield - Is It Finally Time To Fill Up The Tank, Or Is The Tank Empty For Good? [View article]
    I agree with the asymmetry argument; it is a good one. The difference for me is that I do not invest for total return but for a growing income stream. I really want to avoid the total return vs income discussion, so let's agree your point is well made.

    As for the bear market and oils being beaten down enough. I don't know, I think that idea requires some links that may not prove to be there. But to each his or her own.
    Aug 19, 2015. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron At 5% Dividend Yield - Is It Finally Time To Fill Up The Tank, Or Is The Tank Empty For Good? [View article]
    For me, the yield is not enough reason to hold a slowly growing dividend, even if it is secure. I can get that with better safety elsewhere, AT&T is one that comes to mind as I type; SE - in an allied industry - is another.

    Chevron is a good company and the current dividend appears safe to me. But near term GROWTH in the dividend will be very slow and future growth will be hampered by the need to re-start capital expenditures. So I got out. I sold four batches (I had a big position for me) and made money on all but the last. Best wishes to those of you who have stayed in the stock; again, it is a quality company.
    Aug 19, 2015. 12:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Kinder Morgan Is Too Much For A Dividend Growth Investor? - Part 2 [View article]
    This was a fine discussion of your thinking and how you use outside ideas to influence your conclusions. I too own KMI - it is my sixth largest holding. I will hold all of it for now, but as outside ideas lay out the case that oil prices could stay low for much longer than I had anticipated, I may be compelled to reduce or eliminate my holdings at a loss. Such is life. But I am out of Chevron, most lots at a gain. And I put the money into SE which has been hit about as hard as KMI. This part of my portfolio is "the house of pain" to quote Kramer.
    Aug 17, 2015. 04:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Schools Of Thought - Evaluating The Viability Of Energy Firms Given Low Oil Prices [View article]
    What a great analysis! I have to re-read it to make substantive comments, so I will be back.
    Aug 17, 2015. 01:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Further Into Chevron, Preemptive Dividend Cut Likely [View article]
    @PaulC - Yes, I read that and I got some comfort from it. But since then oil prices have taken a double dip. A BP executive said oil companies must "prepare for lower, for longer." Chevron will survive by cutting capital expenditures, but it hinders dividend growth, especially in the next five years or so.

    For me, "growing it" as Chevron's CEO said, means growing the dividend at a more than minimal level. I told my young son-in-law to buy Chevron; at the same time I was selling because, as I said above, I want more income when I am ancient, which isn't far enough away for me to wait for CVX's real dividend growth.

    So it comes down to when you need the money from CVX's dividend. I do not disagree with CVX bulls, it just is not appropriate for me.
    Aug 16, 2015. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Further Into Chevron, Preemptive Dividend Cut Likely [View article]
    I have stated in another CVX post that I recently sold all my holdings. I have done so in steps, but I did it in response to debates like these. Here is the core of my reasoning: I invest for yield and sustainable GROWTH of the dividend. These articles (whatever their merit) and the disagreements that follow mean that CVX will face slow dividend growth at best in the near future.

    CVX may sustain or even increase the dividend by a penny or two, perhaps by cutting capital investments. But that leaves them behind the curve when (maybe if) oil prices go back up. Later catch-up investment means slower dividend growth even after we have crossed the (oil price) valley. I reluctantly sold for this reason.

    I DEMAND SUSTAINABLE DIVIDEND GROWTH. I left Intel because it failed in this and I now have my skeptical eye on Proctor and Gamble. Can PG sustain dividend growth? TBD.

    These are hard decisions, but when I am ancient I want an income stream that has outpaced inflation.
    Aug 14, 2015. 09:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron Won't Be At $80 Levels For Long [View article]
    I was a long-time CVX shareholder and I just sold the rest of my shares. I know, I know, I could be selling at the bottom. I have sold in batches, with the prior sale in the 90s. I have added the funds to SE in my retirement accounts.

    M* still likes CVX and talks about its dividend being safe. But that is not what I need: I need a growing dividend, even if it barely exceeds inflation (not a very high standard, what?) I don't have concern about CVX failing and I have only a small concern about sustaining the current dividend. I invest for dividend GROWTH. A one cent rise won't get me there nor will two cents (per quarter). So I reluctantly sold the rest of my CVX.
    Aug 12, 2015. 08:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Portfolio Review By S&P Sectors, Dividend And Income Yield [View article]
    Rose, I always enjoy your emoticons. Totally irrelevant comment, but there you go.

    Nice article, too. Keep writing.
    Aug 7, 2015. 08:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A More Granular Analysis Of REIT Performance During Rising Rate Periods [View article]
    @Heli
    I read the article - thanks for the link. I found it additionally interesting that Chilton avoids triple net REITs and has only one health care REIT in its model portfolio. If you have access to their full list, would you care to share it?
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rich Kinder Should Be Rooting For Lower Prices [View article]
    Pappajoe79 (later) has hit the nail on the head. To PendragonY, they have paid out $.45 on 2/17, $.48 on 5/15 and they plan to pay $.49 on 8/14. This is from the NASDAQ website.

    But this is calendar year, not KMI fiscal year data. I plan and spend in calendar years, KMI operates in fiscal years. Small difference. Still a great company.

    I meant my comment to simply be a nit picking point.
    Jul 19, 2015. 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rich Kinder Should Be Rooting For Lower Prices [View article]
    It doesn't help my case if my math is wrong, does it?

    The total payments in 2015 could be $1.93 to $1.97, not $1.96. This assumes the final payment is $.51 to $.55 in 2015.

    It would take a final (November, 2015) payment of $.58 to make $2.00 paid in 2015, which was my point.
    Jul 18, 2015. 11:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rich Kinder Should Be Rooting For Lower Prices [View article]
    Eli: I am going to nit pick just a bit. KMI will probably not "pay out" $2.00 in 2015 as you state. They have paid out $.92 in 2015 and will pay out an additional $.49 on August 15, 2015. Their next payment will be in mid-November 2015 (11/17 last year) and it will probably be somewhere between $.51 and $.55. (I am planning on $.51.) This payment will bring there total payments to stockholders during 2015 to $1.93 to $1.96.

    They will announce again in early January 2016 and I expect this will bring their payout to $2.00. But the payment will come in February 2016.

    It seems very unlikely that KMI will pay out the $.58 in November 2015 that will bring their ACTUAL pay out to $2.00. If they do pay out $.58 in November, I will eat happily my crow - with a side of a very nice red which the bump up will help pay for.

    I don't spend money that is "announced." I spend money that is received.

    But please don't misinterpret my comment; I like your reasoning in this and prior articles and like you, I own KMI.
    Jul 18, 2015. 11:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron's 4.6% Dividend Yield Is A Once-In-A-Decade Opportunity [View article]
    Great comments NC Investor. I agree 100%. No need to re-state what you said.
    Jul 15, 2015. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuberger Berman Real Estate Securities Income Fund: The REIT Fund To Get A 7% Yield Paid Out Monthly [View article]
    Henry, I am asking a stupid question: I thought the IRS limit applied on to MLPs. Does it truly apply to REITs as well?
    Jun 5, 2015. 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Light Vehicle Sales Per Capita: Understanding The Long-Term Trend [View article]
    How about miles driver per capita?
    Jun 4, 2015. 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
342 Comments
552 Likes