Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View drcarl's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Neuberger Berman Real Estate Securities Income Fund: The REIT Fund To Get A 7% Yield Paid Out Monthly [View article]
    Henry, I am asking a stupid question: I thought the IRS limit applied on to MLPs. Does it truly apply to REITs as well?
    Jun 5, 2015. 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Light Vehicle Sales Per Capita: Understanding The Long-Term Trend [View article]
    How about miles driver per capita?
    Jun 4, 2015. 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big 4 Economic Indicators: Real Retail Sales [View article]
    Wow, thanks Doug. I am saving all these charts. You have a great eye for graphics.
    Jun 2, 2015. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend, Yield, And Price: Inseparably Linked [View article]
    Yea Dave, I jumped right in with my two cent's worth, but I want to echo what Minutemen said, great job on this.
    Jun 1, 2015. 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend, Yield, And Price: Inseparably Linked [View article]
    Correct, which is why my portfolio is way too low on industrials and raw materials. I owned HP, Intel and 3M, sold 'em all when dividend growth faltered. Now they all are wonderful investments.

    I held my nose and bought GE, now they will freeze through 2016. Geez, what am I to do? Load up on companies like Realty Income when the time is right - that's all I can do. Sold half my GE, by the way.
    Jun 1, 2015. 09:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Rationale For Selecting This Moat-Worthy Brand [View article]
    My apologies to David Crosetti, I misspelled his name.
    Jun 1, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Rationale For Selecting This Moat-Worthy Brand [View article]
    I'm with rosenose and zucks, I want a little more yield. I just commented on David Cossetti's article that I use current yield relative to (what David called) "base yield" to help me evaluate when to pull the trigger. I own a lot of Realty Income now and I will add more when the market gives me 5.5% or better. Maybe never, but in all negotiations you have to take the risk of waiting.
    Jun 1, 2015. 09:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend, Yield, And Price: Inseparably Linked [View article]
    I too, use a "base yield" concept and I work hard on identifying that for each investment I make or desire to make. (This also can apply to closed end funds and the z-score explicitly is one indication of this.) I start with historical average yield during periods with inflation and market rates that are similar to the present period.

    If, in the case of, for example, Realty Income, the current yield is appreciably higher than the historical yield (the "base yield"), so I am slow to buy more. If earnings or operations are changing, that reluctance is reduced, but these things can never be precise.

    If, in the case of JNJ in July 2010, the (then) current yield was well above the historical yield, I loaded up on shares of this great, wide moat company. (The product adulteration problem was depressing prices.)

    Your concept of "base yield" is illusive sometimes, but very powerful.
    Jun 1, 2015. 09:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The S&P 500, Dow And Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs [View article]
    Thanks Doug, I am a big fan. An annualized real return of 1.8% over the post-2000 peak doesn't seem like much. But that word "real" makes all the difference. To have my actual wealth increase in this fashion is acceptable, although the plunging and soaring on the path are certainly unnerving.

    I know the CPI is flawed, but I search in vain for a better measure of price change.
    Jun 1, 2015. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preferred Stock Buyers - History Suggests That June Could Bring Higher Returns For Lower Prices [View article]
    Great article Doug! Your logic and evidence is solid. I will prepare for the likely decline you describe.

    What a weird world it is that billions of dollars of price movement could be caused by such transitory events. I have never accepted the assertion of a dominating rational-actor market, and this is just one more bit of evidence to me.
    Jun 1, 2015. 09:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Invest In International Hedged Equity ETFs? [View article]
    Yes, I echo DAG: Thanks for the information. These are markets we need to participate in, but dollar value changes make that challenging.
    May 22, 2015. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric's Future Dividend Growth [View article]
    I am pulled in different directions by GE. Your analysis is solid, and the "frozen" dividend will probably be followed by sub-double-digit growth. But richjoy makes a solid case for holding in pursuit of total returns. So I do what I have typically done, split the difference. I sold about half my holdings! This brings GE down to one of my lower-third allocations. It used to be a top holding.
    May 22, 2015. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ Economists' May Forecasts For 10-Year Yields And The Fed Funds Rate [View article]
    Thanks Doug. Really great data. I am on the very low side of the 10 year forecast (1.8 in 2017) because I see (1) slow economic growth that (2) keeps core inflation low.

    I think the Fed will experiment with a policy rate rise and the market will teach the Fed that low inflation is more important than policy moves in setting rates, especially longer rates.

    Just my view.
    May 20, 2015. 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Tips To Those Retiring Over The Next Year [View article]
    I know the feeling. I expected dinner for what I suffered!
    May 18, 2015. 02:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Tips To Those Retiring Over The Next Year [View article]
    Oh crap, I was unlucky I guess. Well, as others have noted, I only lasted one painful year!
    May 18, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment