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Plant the seeds

Plant the seeds
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  • The Essence of U.S. Macro Trends [View article]
    Blackrock seems to think that emerging bonds are fairly valued for the risk involved.
    Oct 6, 2009. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Building: Risks, Not Risk [View article]
    The main drawback is the assumption of past returns, standard deviations and correlations to estimate the future for each asset class.
    I think using the past averages and adjusting to information available and investor thinking will still work. This can be done either using the risk factors as suggested in the article, variety of macro, micro and industry information to adjust the expected future.
    Oct 5, 2009. 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF Growth Forecast: Cause for Concern, Not Optimism [View article]
    The fiscal package will end when the authoorized spending ends unless congress adds to the pot. So the real transistion we are talking about is on the monetary front and the availability of credit.
    I do think that things have improved on the credit front but banks are asking a lot more questions now.
    Oct 2, 2009. 05:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Reasons to Be Bullish [View article]
    India seems to be brightest spot of the asian economies you cited. primarily because its didn't decline because global trade is <20% of the GDP, so unlike China and Asian exporters they didn't suffer the consequence of the shrinking American consumer.
    China overcome severe problems from the missing American Consumer and was able to stay positive by dipping into the vault and spending a lot of money. When that ends they will still have to deal the falling export market.
    Oct 2, 2009. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Frontier ETF Ideas for the Risk-Tolerant [View article]
    Middle east GDP forecast was increased by the IMF today
    Oct 1, 2009. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts on Manufacturing & Pending Home Sales [View instapost]
    I hear you on the Chicago house, we are going around looking for houses today, a toddler and a condo don't go well together.
    Oct 1, 2009. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts on Manufacturing & Pending Home Sales [View instapost]
    Manufacturing is recovering not because demand is recovering, only because inventories were cut too sharply with depression fears so the warehouses are building back up.
    Oct 1, 2009. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Base and the Dow [View instapost]
    Derryl the commentary I read at the time was that the trading was from corporates rushing to raise debt at the abnormally low rates. I think your suggestion is plausible as well.

    On Sep 28 11:01 PM derryl wrote:

    > "How do see the mechanism used to transfer this money, if it is not
    > a statistical anomaly?"
    > Proprietary trading by TARP recipients. TARP and its kin are designed
    > to put cash into banks to directly recapitalize and for banks to
    > use to generate profits to self-recapitalize. GS and JPM both posted
    > record trading profits since the bailouts began. Big money and HFT
    > could very well be the driver of the market rise.
    Sep 29, 2009. 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Base and the Dow [View instapost]
    Japan may offer a case to contrast in their efforts to recapitalize in the 1990s. I don't have any data, but I would be interested in contrasting.

    On Sep 28 11:27 PM John Lounsbury wrote:

    > derryl - - -
    > Thanks for the comment - you certainly have given the possibility
    > with the highest probability.
    > Plant the seeds - - -
    > We are talking about correlations here. That is why a study into
    > deep history is important to see if this type of cerrelation has
    > existed before. One of the major factors I saw recently which increased
    > my suspicion was the number of days in the past many weeks when the
    > "zombies" (FRE, FNM, AIG, etc.) made up as much of 20% of daily market
    > volume. Many of these trades were in large blocks, implying institutional
    > trading. Was TARP money being day traded?
    Sep 29, 2009. 05:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Detailed Overview of Central and Eastern European Bank Players [View article]
    Interesting data on Austria. How does the EU respond to this problem in the heart of the grouping? Iceland was easy to write off.
    Sep 29, 2009. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North America Takes a Backseat to Europe in Prosperity [View article]
    Stock wealth is a bigger part of American assets (if I am not mistaken). How do assess the impact on illiquid assets, property?
    Sep 29, 2009. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monetary Base and the Dow [View instapost]
    How do see the mechanism used to transfer this money, if it is not a statistical anomaly?
    Sep 28, 2009. 04:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Walking Conflicts of Interest [View instapost]
    The Federal Reserve does have a spotty record, but there are no existing alternatives with the same analytical talent needed to discover developing problems.
    Zoellicks proposal would mean that politicians will decide when a problem is truly a problem (usually when it blows up in their face).
    Sep 28, 2009. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Deficit Potential Makes Scary Headlines [View article]
    China does not have a real option other than the US to send its excess manufacturing.
    I agree with Glen88 that a lot of imports were components for export goods.
    My post in detail on China
    Sep 28, 2009. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Chimerica's Demise Take Down Global Economy? [View article]
    I would agree with that argument in the longer term.
    However, they are sitting on nearly a trillion in dollar assets, send about $200B in exports each year to the US.

    In the longer term, no question that they want to diversify away. The reasons you cite are true and indicate this commodity diversification. But if the chinese want to keep the export model, then why would you pressure the dollar and strengthen the Yuan (or not allow it).
    See my post in detail on this.

    On Sep 16 12:58 PM Paul Harper wrote:

    > On Sep 16 12:03 PM Plant the seeds wrote:
    > "The whole campaign on IMF SDRs and questioning the dollar initially
    > left me scratching my head"
    > Me too, until I ran a playback on some of my own articles on SA &amp;
    > also some from Trader Mark &amp; a few others.
    > I am forming an opinion that this is all part of a longer term hedge
    > against the dollar going forward, along with the recent IMF purchase,
    > bilateral trade agreements, asset purchases in Australia / Lat-Am
    > (paif dor in dollars)&amp; gold stocking that has been going on.
    > All parts of the same puzzle.
    Sep 28, 2009. 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment