donzelion's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/302824/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175195-why-barron-s-is-wrong-about-for-profit-education-stocks?source=feed#comment-779317 779317
The questions about quality are important - retention matters somewhat, but more important is value for the hour to the student: how many come back a year later, how many willingly continue to invest more time in the program after they use it to get one job or the other. There is potential here for significant social change: I'll put a few bucks down and see how it plays out.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 07:07:06 -0500
The questions about quality are important - retention matters somewhat, but more important is value for the hour to the student: how many come back a year later, how many willingly continue to invest more time in the program after they use it to get one job or the other. There is potential here for significant social change: I'll put a few bucks down and see how it plays out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174492-the-twenty-year-stock-bubble-is-still-inflated?source=feed#comment-770863 770863
(1) Demographics. Baby boomers would start entering their prime earning years in the 80s and 90s. Add the unprecedented number of dual income families, and you'd expect many middle class families to have unprecedented amounts of investable income by the mid-90s
(2) Asset class interaction. Recall those amazing lows for commodities in the 90s...commodities are labor and/or capital intensive. Instead of buying new acres or drilling new holes, "old money" families moved wholesale into equities.
(3) Post-Cold War exuberance.

Those three factors would have interacted with others (revolutions in tech and pharms) to drive up equities for a while, but I see no way they'll drive prices in the intermediate future.]]> Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:10:17 -0500
(1) Demographics. Baby boomers would start entering their prime earning years in the 80s and 90s. Add the unprecedented number of dual income families, and you'd expect many middle class families to have unprecedented amounts of investable income by the mid-90s
(2) Asset class interaction. Recall those amazing lows for commodities in the 90s...commodities are labor and/or capital intensive. Instead of buying new acres or drilling new holes, "old money" families moved wholesale into equities.
(3) Post-Cold War exuberance.

Those three factors would have interacted with others (revolutions in tech and pharms) to drive up equities for a while, but I see no way they'll drive prices in the intermediate future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174459-can-apple-stop-the-android?source=feed#comment-768520 768520
Apple lost the Mac/PC wars in the 80s/90s because the IBM/Wintel/ et. al. platform aggregated incremental evolutions from numerous players in a "good enough" platform attractive to "serious" corporate IT budgets. Windows never needed to best Mac - they just needed to swallow all the other business contenders (remember IBM ProDos, OS/2, and the windowing emulators?).

A proliferation of quality Android handsets gaining consumer market share won't really threaten Apple. Rather, following the 80s/90s parallel, the threat is that Android will swallow RIM, Nokia/Symbian, and the navigation devices, and integrate them into a "good enough" business platform. That day may come, but it's a long ways from becoming a crisis for Apple.]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:51:52 -0500
Apple lost the Mac/PC wars in the 80s/90s because the IBM/Wintel/ et. al. platform aggregated incremental evolutions from numerous players in a "good enough" platform attractive to "serious" corporate IT budgets. Windows never needed to best Mac - they just needed to swallow all the other business contenders (remember IBM ProDos, OS/2, and the windowing emulators?).

A proliferation of quality Android handsets gaining consumer market share won't really threaten Apple. Rather, following the 80s/90s parallel, the threat is that Android will swallow RIM, Nokia/Symbian, and the navigation devices, and integrate them into a "good enough" business platform. That day may come, but it's a long ways from becoming a crisis for Apple.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174371-the-unbearable-pain-of-0-01?source=feed#comment-768498 768498
Think that was supposed to be WWI. The Maginot Line was bypassed/crumbled under the blitz in days, and besides, in WWII, pushes required massive, coordinated infrastructure - planes, tanks, men, logistics, comms. Frenetic charges by specific units became far less relevant.

That reasoning actually supports a diversified (global) utilities thesis. Gross may be right about utilities becoming the "new gold" - any firms that buy inputs (and issue debt) in dollars, convert them to necessities, and receive cash in local currencies should thrive. A dollar crash would wipe out existing debt of many foreign utilities (esp. in emerging markets). Steady dividends sweeten the deal. Given regulatory risks for any specific player, I like ETFs here more than specific issues - so DBU seems a solid candidate.]]> Fri, 20 Nov 2009 04:53:02 -0500
Think that was supposed to be WWI. The Maginot Line was bypassed/crumbled under the blitz in days, and besides, in WWII, pushes required massive, coordinated infrastructure - planes, tanks, men, logistics, comms. Frenetic charges by specific units became far less relevant.

That reasoning actually supports a diversified (global) utilities thesis. Gross may be right about utilities becoming the "new gold" - any firms that buy inputs (and issue debt) in dollars, convert them to necessities, and receive cash in local currencies should thrive. A dollar crash would wipe out existing debt of many foreign utilities (esp. in emerging markets). Steady dividends sweeten the deal. Given regulatory risks for any specific player, I like ETFs here more than specific issues - so DBU seems a solid candidate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163342-etfconnect-is-no-more?source=feed#comment-691122 691122
CEO: So even with this mega-rally, we're still $XYZ million in the hole. Alright, come on people, who has ideas here?
Exec: Hey, we just got an offer from [Blackrock / Fidelity / random media company] to sell ETFconnect.com site to them for $25 million.
CEO: Intriguing. What's our bottom line on the site, anyway?
Exec: Click-thru analysis shows that we've sold roughly 5 bucks in CEFs, and helped sell billions in ETFs. Meanwhile, it costs $1-3 million a year to run - that's 24 research assistants in India at $500k and one manager.
CEO: That's all it costs? Wow. So anyone could compete in this, right?
Exec: Well, Yahoo Finance and Google Finance are already competing, but their presentation sucks. Yahoo has almost all the same stuff, but makes you click a dozen times to get it. Google has a tiny bit of the same stuff, but their service is really new. Then there's the finance mags - but they can't afford our Indian research team.
CEO: Hmmm, so our primary virtue is a convenient, single page format, but the primary result of that is that it can't be monetized. Counter at $200 million due to our goodwill, but take anything north of $50 million. Any other ideas?]]> Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:09:08 -0400
CEO: So even with this mega-rally, we're still $XYZ million in the hole. Alright, come on people, who has ideas here?
Exec: Hey, we just got an offer from [Blackrock / Fidelity / random media company] to sell ETFconnect.com site to them for $25 million.
CEO: Intriguing. What's our bottom line on the site, anyway?
Exec: Click-thru analysis shows that we've sold roughly 5 bucks in CEFs, and helped sell billions in ETFs. Meanwhile, it costs $1-3 million a year to run - that's 24 research assistants in India at $500k and one manager.
CEO: That's all it costs? Wow. So anyone could compete in this, right?
Exec: Well, Yahoo Finance and Google Finance are already competing, but their presentation sucks. Yahoo has almost all the same stuff, but makes you click a dozen times to get it. Google has a tiny bit of the same stuff, but their service is really new. Then there's the finance mags - but they can't afford our Indian research team.
CEO: Hmmm, so our primary virtue is a convenient, single page format, but the primary result of that is that it can't be monetized. Counter at $200 million due to our goodwill, but take anything north of $50 million. Any other ideas?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/142982-joseph-l-shaefer/24374-emerging-economies-the-good-the-bad-the-ugly?source=feed#comment-644685 644685
Still, I'd offer one twist on the thesis of buying quality developed market companies to play the emerging markets: take the Euro/Japanese option whenever you find a true competitor with a U.S. company.

It's a simple tax difference. Euro/Japanese/Korean companies send their best people abroad on long-term foreign assignments because those people often get a 100% tax exclusion. However, America taxes citizens based on global income - which means that the tax effect of a foreign posting is often slightly negative. Hence, the best and brightest in European/Asian companies volunteer for foreign posts, while in America, it's often forced upon personnel.

Result? Europeans/Japanese/Kor... send large delegations of quality personnel abroad; Americans send few. Over time, that leads to steady gains for the Europeans and Japanese, who gradually push aside American companies whenever a true competitor exists.

Hence, I'd take the Japanese/European competitor wherever possible if one is playing the emerging markets (Nokia over Motorola/Qualcomm, Toyota over GM/Ford, ABB over GE), and take the American company when it has no true competitors (Intel, MSFT).]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 03:35:43 -0400
Still, I'd offer one twist on the thesis of buying quality developed market companies to play the emerging markets: take the Euro/Japanese option whenever you find a true competitor with a U.S. company.

It's a simple tax difference. Euro/Japanese/Korean companies send their best people abroad on long-term foreign assignments because those people often get a 100% tax exclusion. However, America taxes citizens based on global income - which means that the tax effect of a foreign posting is often slightly negative. Hence, the best and brightest in European/Asian companies volunteer for foreign posts, while in America, it's often forced upon personnel.

Result? Europeans/Japanese/Kor... send large delegations of quality personnel abroad; Americans send few. Over time, that leads to steady gains for the Europeans and Japanese, who gradually push aside American companies whenever a true competitor exists.

Hence, I'd take the Japanese/European competitor wherever possible if one is playing the emerging markets (Nokia over Motorola/Qualcomm, Toyota over GM/Ford, ABB over GE), and take the American company when it has no true competitors (Intel, MSFT).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155982-archer-daniels-midland-time-to-buy?source=feed#comment-631390 631390
Long-term, ADM's international presence impresses me more than ethanol profits (corn ethanol is primarily a subsidy/wealth transfer scheme for farm states). New plants, silos, or logistics capabilities abroad are a hedge on US currency collapses, extreme weather fluctuations, and demand growth in emerging markets. Their main competitors abroad tend to be bloated quasi-government agri-cooperatives found in each country: ADM should be able to win several of those battles, making them a reasonable bet in ag-space.]]> Sun, 16 Aug 2009 03:23:46 -0400
Long-term, ADM's international presence impresses me more than ethanol profits (corn ethanol is primarily a subsidy/wealth transfer scheme for farm states). New plants, silos, or logistics capabilities abroad are a hedge on US currency collapses, extreme weather fluctuations, and demand growth in emerging markets. Their main competitors abroad tend to be bloated quasi-government agri-cooperatives found in each country: ADM should be able to win several of those battles, making them a reasonable bet in ag-space.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152070-think-taxes-are-on-the-rise-consider-these-etfs-part-ii?source=feed#comment-615764 615764
A modest proposed refinement: "every American should pay income tax on any income that comes directly or indirectly from America." Every other country taxes on the source of income; America is unique in taxing US citizens on global income of whatever source. That creates strong advantages for skilled professionals and mid-level management European/Asian countries - everyone else vies for foreign posts to get a possible tax benefit, while Americans, with much less to gain, tend to stay home (yourself very much excepted).]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2009 03:10:42 -0400
A modest proposed refinement: "every American should pay income tax on any income that comes directly or indirectly from America." Every other country taxes on the source of income; America is unique in taxing US citizens on global income of whatever source. That creates strong advantages for skilled professionals and mid-level management European/Asian countries - everyone else vies for foreign posts to get a possible tax benefit, while Americans, with much less to gain, tend to stay home (yourself very much excepted).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148650-who-s-smarter-bond-guys-or-stock-guys?source=feed#comment-589465 589465 Wed, 15 Jul 2009 15:07:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148636-the-real-demand-behind-the-explosive-growth-of-international-etfs?source=feed#comment-589442 589442
An imminently reasonable question. The corollary: how do we know which emerging markets haven't been affected by their own housing, banking, and auto crises? (Current evidence suggests that of the BRICs, India and Brazil are significantly less bubble-riddled).]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 14:49:40 -0400
An imminently reasonable question. The corollary: how do we know which emerging markets haven't been affected by their own housing, banking, and auto crises? (Current evidence suggests that of the BRICs, India and Brazil are significantly less bubble-riddled).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148162-ultrashort-etfs-now-it-s-less-embarrassing-to-admit-owning-them?source=feed#comment-583601 583601
I think of them as the equivalent to a short-term insurance policy on a rental car - you hope it's just an unncessary waste of money, but under the right circumstances...and today's world is full of unpredictable circumstances.]]> Sat, 11 Jul 2009 12:27:21 -0400
I think of them as the equivalent to a short-term insurance policy on a rental car - you hope it's just an unncessary waste of money, but under the right circumstances...and today's world is full of unpredictable circumstances.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148049-22-stocks-on-the-dividend-aristocrats-list-that-may-spell-trouble?source=feed#comment-581868 581868
That said, picking from the best companies that are also stable dividend payers seems to make good sense to me. I still like ADM and WMT; there's relatively few good options among dividend payers in their respective sectors, and to me, diversification is almost as important as healthy dividend payouts.]]> Fri, 10 Jul 2009 08:17:57 -0400
That said, picking from the best companies that are also stable dividend payers seems to make good sense to me. I still like ADM and WMT; there's relatively few good options among dividend payers in their respective sectors, and to me, diversification is almost as important as healthy dividend payouts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147907-forget-oil-copper-coal-the-best-recovery-commodities?source=feed#comment-581575 581575
Given the uncertainties with hard commodities, it seems to me that soft commodities (and the companies that make the stuff that makes them) will be the safer play.]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 21:17:34 -0400
Given the uncertainties with hard commodities, it seems to me that soft commodities (and the companies that make the stuff that makes them) will be the safer play.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147683-seven-car-companies-pulling-ahead-despite-recession?source=feed#comment-581551 581551
The Nano is built like a "disposable razor" - perfectly appropriate for places where a mechanic can swap out an engine for $20 + cost of the parts, and where millions are upgrading from scooters/mopeds to automobiles.

Big question is whether they've bitten off more than they can chew with Jaguar + Land Rover (same applies to Fiat with Chrysler), and whether the company is truly an automotive player (or merely a variety of family trading companies with some impressive gimmickry). High risk, and potentially high reward (at least, more so than for the established players).

On Jul 09 02:49 PM dw57 wrote:

> doubtful that any one here will buy them (unless that giant sucking
> sound pulls our standard of living down really soon)]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:37:50 -0400
The Nano is built like a "disposable razor" - perfectly appropriate for places where a mechanic can swap out an engine for $20 + cost of the parts, and where millions are upgrading from scooters/mopeds to automobiles.

Big question is whether they've bitten off more than they can chew with Jaguar + Land Rover (same applies to Fiat with Chrysler), and whether the company is truly an automotive player (or merely a variety of family trading companies with some impressive gimmickry). High risk, and potentially high reward (at least, more so than for the established players).

On Jul 09 02:49 PM dw57 wrote:

> doubtful that any one here will buy them (unless that giant sucking
> sound pulls our standard of living down really soon)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147949-crimes-of-banking-optimal-deterrence?source=feed#comment-581530 581530
Two points though: First, "By creating an objective, supposedly predictable and stable standard of negligence, it made it easier for businesses to manage the risks of their operations." The problem arises when the "reasonable man" standard is being applied to systemic conduct beyond the understanding of any reasonable person. Then an "objective" standard becomes utterly meaningless (and that's the main reason to move from tort or contract and into administrative law).

Second: perhaps torts is taught differently at Yale, but in general, the business judgment rule shelters against liability for breach of fiduciary duties to shareholders, not against tort liability (e.g., shareholders claim that the company wasted their assets by dumb choices, they get no relief if the company was exercising its business judgment). If a company acts negligently, it will still be liable (and the company could conceivably recover bonuses through clawbacks for specific persons who act negligently).]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:14:01 -0400
Two points though: First, "By creating an objective, supposedly predictable and stable standard of negligence, it made it easier for businesses to manage the risks of their operations." The problem arises when the "reasonable man" standard is being applied to systemic conduct beyond the understanding of any reasonable person. Then an "objective" standard becomes utterly meaningless (and that's the main reason to move from tort or contract and into administrative law).

Second: perhaps torts is taught differently at Yale, but in general, the business judgment rule shelters against liability for breach of fiduciary duties to shareholders, not against tort liability (e.g., shareholders claim that the company wasted their assets by dumb choices, they get no relief if the company was exercising its business judgment). If a company acts negligently, it will still be liable (and the company could conceivably recover bonuses through clawbacks for specific persons who act negligently).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147912-does-felix-have-criminal-tendencies?source=feed#comment-581511 581511
Possibly, but I find it more likely that he would have thought twice before assuring shareholders and others that "everything was safe and contingencies were all in order."

The issue really comes down to one of trust: you would not trust your local used car salesman with your life savings, simply because he could show that he made a long set of good deals over the last five years. However, millions did trust bankers, even when their incentives were quite comparable.

Criminalizing betrayal of trust, under the correct circumstances, is part and parcel of all securities regulation: it is essential to the function of a legitimate market. "Over-deterring" betrayal would hardly constitute a major risk.]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 19:44:23 -0400
Possibly, but I find it more likely that he would have thought twice before assuring shareholders and others that "everything was safe and contingencies were all in order."

The issue really comes down to one of trust: you would not trust your local used car salesman with your life savings, simply because he could show that he made a long set of good deals over the last five years. However, millions did trust bankers, even when their incentives were quite comparable.

Criminalizing betrayal of trust, under the correct circumstances, is part and parcel of all securities regulation: it is essential to the function of a legitimate market. "Over-deterring" betrayal would hardly constitute a major risk.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147683-seven-car-companies-pulling-ahead-despite-recession?source=feed#comment-580960 580960
In 15 years working in the Middle East, I've watched Japanese, German, and Korean brands push American brands to the sidelines (fuel efficiency has absolutely nothing to do with it in these parts, where gas is still less than a dollar per gallon). For the last 3 years, Tata has been gaining traction, but is still far beneath the radar in the States.]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:02:19 -0400
In 15 years working in the Middle East, I've watched Japanese, German, and Korean brands push American brands to the sidelines (fuel efficiency has absolutely nothing to do with it in these parts, where gas is still less than a dollar per gallon). For the last 3 years, Tata has been gaining traction, but is still far beneath the radar in the States.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147532-brazilian-bovespa-sinks-expect-more-weakness-in-the-near-future?source=feed#comment-580842 580842 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:55:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147675-why-i-bought-cat?source=feed#comment-580804 580804 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:34:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147494-google-drops-a-nuclear-bomb-on-microsoft-and-it-s-made-of-chrome?source=feed#comment-579163 579163
Some people hate computers generally, preferring typewriters.

"Cloud computing" is hardly about making life easier for the average worker (although in some contexts it can). As managers adopt it, they discover that they can monitor actual employee performance in real time - and what's more, assess quality of contributions (rather than reviewing a flurry of email attachments separately).

Microsoft's competing solution involves taking an architecture designed to personalize and decentralize information, then adding more software to "un-decentralize" it (Windows + Office + Sharepoint + Office Server + security apps +...), then paying to do that on each workstation separately (and then paying when the laptop that holds the data gets stolen or the central server gets hacked).

Businesses don't care about the cost of such inherent inefficiency during booms...]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:34:40 -0400
Some people hate computers generally, preferring typewriters.

"Cloud computing" is hardly about making life easier for the average worker (although in some contexts it can). As managers adopt it, they discover that they can monitor actual employee performance in real time - and what's more, assess quality of contributions (rather than reviewing a flurry of email attachments separately).

Microsoft's competing solution involves taking an architecture designed to personalize and decentralize information, then adding more software to "un-decentralize" it (Windows + Office + Sharepoint + Office Server + security apps +...), then paying to do that on each workstation separately (and then paying when the laptop that holds the data gets stolen or the central server gets hacked).

Businesses don't care about the cost of such inherent inefficiency during booms...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147494-google-drops-a-nuclear-bomb-on-microsoft-and-it-s-made-of-chrome?source=feed#comment-578696 578696
That said: netbooks are selling to the "non-tech savvy" crowd. The notebook makers mocked them as "little toys" that could never cannibalize sales, and the software makers mock open source alternatives as "little toys." Once upon a time, the steam engine and gunpowder were also little toys (and Microsoft itself was merely peddling a "toy OS" for the fringe niche of "geeks who bought computers for use at home").


On Jul 08 09:24 AM User 443002 wrote:

> Good point. As fast a robust these new system may be the
> average consumer will not have time to adapt to new protocol...
> Google OS will sell better with the geeks and specialized
> professionals that require flexibility and starting out.]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 09:35:31 -0400
That said: netbooks are selling to the "non-tech savvy" crowd. The notebook makers mocked them as "little toys" that could never cannibalize sales, and the software makers mock open source alternatives as "little toys." Once upon a time, the steam engine and gunpowder were also little toys (and Microsoft itself was merely peddling a "toy OS" for the fringe niche of "geeks who bought computers for use at home").


On Jul 08 09:24 AM User 443002 wrote:

> Good point. As fast a robust these new system may be the
> average consumer will not have time to adapt to new protocol...
> Google OS will sell better with the geeks and specialized
> professionals that require flexibility and starting out.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147494-google-drops-a-nuclear-bomb-on-microsoft-and-it-s-made-of-chrome?source=feed#comment-578664 578664
For the doubters out there - I'm not sure how many ordinary users wil pay $100 - $200 for Microsoft Office + $50-100 for Windows XP on a netbook that costs $300.

For the Microsoft boosters (e.g., LA Tech), (1) MSFT made its money by reselling DOS, a free OS, with an MS wrapper, (2) MSFT only became a juggernaut by profiting from missteps at Apple and IBM, and (3) Windows itself existed primarily as vaporware for close to 5 years (if ever had the "pleasure" of using Windows 2.0 or 3.0, you'd know what I'm talking about) - not one user ever preferred Windows to Apple OS even then, but all liked the fact that the total cost (for OS plus basic office applications) was about half as much.]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 09:24:30 -0400
For the doubters out there - I'm not sure how many ordinary users wil pay $100 - $200 for Microsoft Office + $50-100 for Windows XP on a netbook that costs $300.

For the Microsoft boosters (e.g., LA Tech), (1) MSFT made its money by reselling DOS, a free OS, with an MS wrapper, (2) MSFT only became a juggernaut by profiting from missteps at Apple and IBM, and (3) Windows itself existed primarily as vaporware for close to 5 years (if ever had the "pleasure" of using Windows 2.0 or 3.0, you'd know what I'm talking about) - not one user ever preferred Windows to Apple OS even then, but all liked the fact that the total cost (for OS plus basic office applications) was about half as much.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147582-buying-and-selling-houses-virtually-on-the-new-york-stock-exchange?source=feed#comment-578629 578629 Wed, 08 Jul 2009 09:15:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147550-5-etfs-popular-with-investors-right-now?source=feed#comment-578582 578582
While I'd like to do an apples-to-apples comparison of their specific holdings at the same time frame, reviewing the industry diversification shows around 1-2% divergence on various sectors and countries, but it's hard for me to see how such modest differences would add up to outperformance (and certainly how the outperformance would make up for the fees).

EEM is a relic - long live VWO (but actually for me, I prefer fundamentals and dividend weighted alternatives for the emerging markets only - DEM seems more appropriate in environments where the smoke and mirrors are even more prolific than in the States, and where consistent cash payouts are the best reliable proof of a company's bona fide capabilities).]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:57:02 -0400
While I'd like to do an apples-to-apples comparison of their specific holdings at the same time frame, reviewing the industry diversification shows around 1-2% divergence on various sectors and countries, but it's hard for me to see how such modest differences would add up to outperformance (and certainly how the outperformance would make up for the fees).

EEM is a relic - long live VWO (but actually for me, I prefer fundamentals and dividend weighted alternatives for the emerging markets only - DEM seems more appropriate in environments where the smoke and mirrors are even more prolific than in the States, and where consistent cash payouts are the best reliable proof of a company's bona fide capabilities).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147405-junk-bond-funds-caution-is-key?source=feed#comment-577739 577739
I like how JNK has performed in my IRA so far this year, but I keep a stop loss in place should it ever drop significantly in any given month. I'm up about 10% on my position so far, but I see it as a "hold until the 11th hour" position, and want to keep an exit handy.]]> Tue, 07 Jul 2009 17:18:09 -0400
I like how JNK has performed in my IRA so far this year, but I keep a stop loss in place should it ever drop significantly in any given month. I'm up about 10% on my position so far, but I see it as a "hold until the 11th hour" position, and want to keep an exit handy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147118-property-tax-appeals-reflect-dire-economic-situations?source=feed#comment-576157 576157
What policies come to mind? Many suburbs/exurbs limited the number of schools in their zoning plans, favoring 1-2 "super-performer" schools over 5-7 "mediocre" schools (helps keep up property values - and if most kids suffer, well, tough). They demanded extensive, expensive road, sewage, and power grids for their residents, local police and fire units, while forsaking basic infrastructure upgrades to more efficient central systems. They favored strip malls and parks over factories. They wanted specialist hospitals and clinics (but not community hospitals which poor people might come and use). They wanted prisons, but wanted others to pay. And on and on...

Such "beggar thy neighbor" planning is feted during booms, and during busts, the planners readily shift blame elsewhere (Chinese/Arabs/Japanes... But if such blameshifting continues unabated, the result is always and everywhere an even greater anguish.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:43:22 -0400
What policies come to mind? Many suburbs/exurbs limited the number of schools in their zoning plans, favoring 1-2 "super-performer" schools over 5-7 "mediocre" schools (helps keep up property values - and if most kids suffer, well, tough). They demanded extensive, expensive road, sewage, and power grids for their residents, local police and fire units, while forsaking basic infrastructure upgrades to more efficient central systems. They favored strip malls and parks over factories. They wanted specialist hospitals and clinics (but not community hospitals which poor people might come and use). They wanted prisons, but wanted others to pay. And on and on...

Such "beggar thy neighbor" planning is feted during booms, and during busts, the planners readily shift blame elsewhere (Chinese/Arabs/Japanes... But if such blameshifting continues unabated, the result is always and everywhere an even greater anguish.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147122-how-do-you-choose-the-best-etf?source=feed#comment-575847 575847 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 13:06:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147007-what-you-can-do-during-a-slow-growth-recovery?source=feed#comment-575827 575827
China is more interested in securing access to commodities over the long-run than in buying the commodities themselves: I see that as favoring a long-haul strategy for my own positions.

On Jul 06 10:59 AM James Kar wrote:

> May be you can consider dividend paying oil stocks like
> ConocoPhilips (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> paying $1.88 dividend with the current yield at 4.60%. The stock
> pays you something while you are waiting for the recovery. Also,
> the stock will participate in market recovery plus giving you some
> inflation or USD depreciation.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:55:00 -0400
China is more interested in securing access to commodities over the long-run than in buying the commodities themselves: I see that as favoring a long-haul strategy for my own positions.

On Jul 06 10:59 AM James Kar wrote:

> May be you can consider dividend paying oil stocks like
> ConocoPhilips (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> paying $1.88 dividend with the current yield at 4.60%. The stock
> pays you something while you are waiting for the recovery. Also,
> the stock will participate in market recovery plus giving you some
> inflation or USD depreciation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147087-etf-update-good-prognosis-for-health-stocks-in-a-bad-market?source=feed#comment-575753 575753
What investors ought to take into account is the revenue stream from emerging markets - particularly in view of consolidation. Under WTO/TRIPs agreements, Brazil, India, China, and others (esp. smaller parties) can impose compulsory licenses on pharms that effectively wipe out the profit margins. However, as pharms consolidate, it becomes harder and harder for governments to impose terms of trade (and as a result, pharms and device makers should be able to increase margins in emerging markets, which were easy to write off during the blockbuster dependence years).

Whatever happens in the next 2-3 quarters will be far less important over the long-term than the ability for the biggest players to profit from international trade in markets that have never had the support of U.S. politicians or patent protection regimes.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:20:38 -0400
What investors ought to take into account is the revenue stream from emerging markets - particularly in view of consolidation. Under WTO/TRIPs agreements, Brazil, India, China, and others (esp. smaller parties) can impose compulsory licenses on pharms that effectively wipe out the profit margins. However, as pharms consolidate, it becomes harder and harder for governments to impose terms of trade (and as a result, pharms and device makers should be able to increase margins in emerging markets, which were easy to write off during the blockbuster dependence years).

Whatever happens in the next 2-3 quarters will be far less important over the long-term than the ability for the biggest players to profit from international trade in markets that have never had the support of U.S. politicians or patent protection regimes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146867-freeconomics-should-everything-be-free-on-the-internet?source=feed#comment-574781 574781
"Free" may work in a handful of controlled environments (which is the crux of Gladwell and Gapper's arguments: intriguing possibilities, but not likely to amount to a revolution), but behind free, there is always the risk of being "taken." Once upon a time, settlers in America could take "free" land (provided the natives were run off - poor things, they were obsolete). Similarly, today, "digital content" is often "free" (provided traditional media are run off from "mind-space" - poor things, they were obsolete).

A "Freemium" strikes me as just another means of jockeying for that mind-space. Lawyer offer "free initial consultations," brokerages offer "free newsletters," and a paper boy shouts the headlines from a street corner. Giving something away to get more isn't revolutionary - but it can be powerful if one gets the gift/gain balance right.]]> Sun, 05 Jul 2009 16:37:23 -0400
"Free" may work in a handful of controlled environments (which is the crux of Gladwell and Gapper's arguments: intriguing possibilities, but not likely to amount to a revolution), but behind free, there is always the risk of being "taken." Once upon a time, settlers in America could take "free" land (provided the natives were run off - poor things, they were obsolete). Similarly, today, "digital content" is often "free" (provided traditional media are run off from "mind-space" - poor things, they were obsolete).

A "Freemium" strikes me as just another means of jockeying for that mind-space. Lawyer offer "free initial consultations," brokerages offer "free newsletters," and a paper boy shouts the headlines from a street corner. Giving something away to get more isn't revolutionary - but it can be powerful if one gets the gift/gain balance right.]]>