donzelion

Archer Daniels Midland: Time to Buy

Strongly concur with the basic thesis: ADM is one of few steady dividend payers in the ag-sector - making it the closest thing to a "commodity play" for a dividend investor.

Long-term, ADM's international presence impresses me more than ethanol profits (corn ethanol is primarily a subsidy/wealth transfer scheme for farm states). New plants, silos, or logistics capabilities abroad are a hedge on US currency collapses, extreme weather fluctuations, and demand growth in emerging markets. Their main competitors abroad tend to be bloated quasi-government agri-cooperatives found in each country: ADM should be able to win several of those battles, making them a reasonable bet in ag-space.

22 Stocks on the Dividend Aristocrats List That May Spell Trouble

Good review of the basic problems with several dividend achievers. I'd also be curious what the pension liabilities look like; seems that for many of these older companies, replenishing serious losses to the pension will squeeze dividends even more.

That said, picking from the best companies that are also stable dividend payers seems to make good sense to me. I still like ADM and WMT; there's relatively few good options among dividend payers in their respective sectors, and to me, diversification is almost as important as healthy dividend payouts.

81 Dividend Growers to Consider

While I share David's priorities (yield, safety, consistency), I do take modest positions in companies with slightly lower yields for the sake of sectoral diversification (e.g., some industries are allergic to dividends, others consistently overdo it - like financials up to '08, and I don't want my portfolio to consist entirely of mega-caps).

Looking to Buy BRIC? The 'ABC's Are Better (Part I)

I applaud your view of the emerging markets - governance counts. Indeed, governance counts so much that people often forget what it means. No equity was ever sold - stock or bond - without the buyer and seller assuming that a company may exist, and management need not be identical with ownership. Every assumption of capitalism rests upon this foundation.

While I strongly concur - and welcome honest assessment of the region, I'd question this item:

"In China, the favorite of most proponents of buying the “emerging markets,” bureaucracy is more complex but, strangely, less pervasive than in the other BRICs. "

It's not that the government is less pervasive, but that it's sitting, watching and observing - ready to patiently permit others to bear the investment risk, and then to consider how best to recover the lost control. When thinking of China, think first of Hong Kong: the Chinese will comfortably lease a portion of their territory for a hundred years, on the condition that they will get it all back later on.

Plenty of firms became rich through their Chinese-driven products over the last 50 years (often using Hong Kong-based trading families to broker ties with mainland for productive capacity), and Hong Kong has contributed massively to the world economy. But if you go in, go in fully aware that any profitable investment could be taken away tomorrow.

Dividend Aristocrats Will Continue to Outperform

Beg to differ with Whidbey. Historically, dividends were offered to lure investors to buy a stock when investors were squeamish about the integrity of the manager and skeptical about company financials. Hindsight lets us impute additional motives to investors, but nobody investing in dividend payers in 1930 knew which companies would continue to exist as dividend paying enterprises. Dividends have as much staying power as investors have skepticism about management.

Ultimately, the driving factors aren't so different from fees at mutual funds - a dividend payer may or may not be a better run company, just as a fund's stock picker may or may not be a smarter stock picker, but reasonable dividends/low fees translates into advantages that compound over time.

Five Reasons to Invest in Agriculture

I'm still sitting on the fence between DBA and MOO, for much the same reason as splitting the difference between gold miners v. gold. As far as the tax implications, I'd guess that buying a bit of both makes sense if one really wants to play in agriculture without exposing oneself too much to any specific company.

Playing Defense with PowerShares Dynamic Food & Beverage ETF

Lovely marketing in the ticker, "PBJ." Perhaps peanut butter'n'jelly will outperform sushi...but I'd prefer the bonds held by most of these companies to their equities, and don't find them all that defensive.

Why? Two main factors:
(1) Scale. Scale in the 20th century meant McDs, Coke, Pepsi, and others could obtain inputs and produce outputs more efficiently than rivals, while imposing quality controls that were simply impossible for rivals, while advertising with budgets unimaginable for rivals. Each of these advantages has eroded in the last 20 years.
(2) Finance. While most benefits of scale declined, financing advantages persisted: financing for commercial REITs (every shopping mall needs its food court), financing for fit-outs, start-ups, stock rollovers, insurance... Most of the equities in this list aren't quite the "financial services companies" that GE and GM became, but an investor ought to explore just how much growth came from risky financing for the last 10 years.

Scale + finance have some persistent advantages, so these equities shouldn't be bankruptcy risks unless they took on outrageous debts. Hence: I'll buy bonds, and buy them from the ones with the better balance sheets, rather than put bets on my stock picking acumen.

At Least Five Agricultural Stocks with Upside

For Redbaron - seems rather unlikely that Dems will stop subsidies for ag, particularly considering the irrational "green power = corn ethanol" claims. Rather, I suspect Dems will focus on DIFFERENT subsidies - instead of rewarding their buddies in the North Dakota - Texas Redstrip, they'll probably try to spread things out a bit differently.

But given the state of uncertainty (which, alas, is part and parcel for the history of agriculture in general) - I prefer ETFs (MOO in particular) to specific firms. I'll happily forego possibilities of outsize gains in order to spread a bet on the talents and skills of American agriculture generally...