econjunkie

Can the Federal Budget Be Balanced?

Firstly, I think addressing the unfunded liabilities of social security programs is important here, but was not discussed.

Secondly, this was 2008's budget, and unfortunately the deficits for the next ten years will likely be at least double this number.

Cramer's Mad Money - The Hottest IPO of 2009 (9/22/09)

"Lenny Dykstra is one of the great ones."

- JC

Flattening Oil Contango: Is It a Bullish Sign?

"Based purely on market fundamentals, crude oil should be priced around $40 a barrel."

Why?

I agree that fundamentals should have crude lower, but I don't understand that statement. There is no supporting framework in your analysis for how you arrive at such a precise target. I've heard that number thrown around, but you don't provide facts to support it.

The physical relationship achieved through a shrinking contango does not seem obvious here, as front month prices should trend lower as inventories continue to build, but really have not done so.

The only sense I can try and make from what has happened to crude prices is that they have been like many other asset classes, in that they have been subjected to the expectation of a major and nearly immediate economic recovery. I also feel that investors are not that much more enthusiastic about oil's prospects for appreciation out to February as they are about it today, given how fast assets have appreciated in such a short period of time, and hence are only willing to pay as much for oil six months out.

Like many, I am guessing about the oil market, and the market will likely keep us guessing.

If Housing Were Priced in Gold

I can help but question the usefulness of this analysis. Nobody buys houses with gold, and the fundamentals for housing and gold are completely different things. Most importantly, and I can't stress this enough when speaking to gold bugs: gold is not used the same way today as it was a few hundred years ago. It does not necessarily have to reconvene as the currency of choice if fiat currencies continue to collapse. It has some industrial value, but there are other things which are more useful and sought after for productive purposes.

Dollar Nearing a Critical Level

Quantity theory of money...in the long run it will happen.

Solar: Energy's New Growth Sector

I have been making the comments for a while now, that Mad Hedge Fund Trader is likely not who he says his pseudonym is. I think his profile should be removed.

Four Major Developments Gold Investors Should Watch

If there are no buyers left, doesn't that mean that everyone has bought and that there are only sellers left?


On Sep 15 09:15 AM axelrod608 wrote:

> I've often heard that the time to buy anything was when there were
> no buyers left and the time to sell anything was when everyone was
> buying. These days every cabbie, every shoeshine boy and every waitress
> is giving unsolicited advice to "buy gold". That may not constitute
> fundamental research, but it has been on my mind. I don't have an
> answer other than to hedge every dollar I have in gold.

Not All Dividend Stocks Are Overvalued

These dividends are really low compared to some of the dividends that are available out there. Most of these companies are considered "safe" as they are mature, but while that entails low-risk, it also entails lower probability of capital appreciation. You are likely better off finding fixed-income instruments for these companies, as the yields would like be higher than their dividends, especially these days.

Gold Is Still the Opportunity of a Lifetime

Detractors will have no synonyms for detractors and squeeze its life from it in a single paragraph.

Understanding the 'Q' Recovery

'Q' recovery better not become a catchphrase like 'green shoots'.

UNG Stops Issuing New Shares, Now Trading at a Premium

Does anybody think Mad H. is a fraud w.r.t to the claims he has made about his life in his bio? Apparently he set up the world's first dedicated international hedge fund.

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

Aren't people already inflating certain commodities beyond fundamentals? The price of oil is nuts.

The price of gas is not as nuts...

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

Thank you captain obvious.


On Aug 12 08:20 AM perceptions_now wrote:

> Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.

Citi's 'Special Asset Pool' Is Actually Toxic

Pointing out that they should have done their CDS transactions with AIG instead of someone else is a glaring example of the inequity that has tarnished the integrity of the financial system in what is supposed to be a capitalist society.

First in, First Out? U.S. Leading OECD Out of Recession

w.r.t the Canadian trade balance:

1. If the US recovers and starts doing business like it once did, Canada's exports will increase in kind.
2. If you compare the trade surplus to the price of oil and other commodities, you can see that the trade surplus does not narrow until commodities prices start to fall off, starting around August '08.

The combination of a U.S. recovery and an increase back to astronomical levels of commodity prices, if it happens, will likely push these indicators apart again.