the weakonomist's Comments

Amazon to Buy Netflix? Microsoft Is a Much Better Guess as a Potential Acquirer

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 10:35:15 -0400

You're missing the big picture. It always comes doen to price. How much will NetFlix sell for? At the right price Amazon will forget all about state taxes because it's insignificant.

But you're not going to see NetFlix sell right now. They're doing quite well branding their content with partners like XBox. I call nay on the buy.

Obama's New Mileage Standards: Let's Wait and See How the Final Rules Shake Out

Tue, 19 May 2009 09:26:37 -0400

Who said anything about limiting choices? Your SUV may still be available if the market is there.

What needs to be done is the creation of incentives to purchase fuel efficient cars even in times of cheap gas. Not sure if it's a subsidy or tax rebate but that is the only way the market would do a full on move to efficiency in a time of cheap gas.

I might also suggest adding the gas guzzler tax to large SUVs and trucks not used for commercial purposes. It's not fair that a recreational BMW M3 that gets 18 MPG pays a gas guzzler tax when the jerk next to him at the stoplight commutes in an f150 with 32 inch tires. This is coming from someone that likes trucks.

Three Reasons Investment Banks Should Pay Back TARP Money ASAP

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 13:25:12 -0400

Once those funds get paid back they just go to normal revenue for the government, which means it becomes pork for some money hungry congressman. Sure would be nice if when banks paid back their debts the government did too.

Fiscal Responsibility: Obama Takes the Reins

Tue, 24 Feb 2009 09:30:25 -0500

My representatives that voted for the stimulus got an earful from me, it's still the worse case of pork ever signed by a president. However we knew it was going to get passed and our reps on the right did their best to pull some of that pork out.

Obama has done the right thing to make this promise to cut the deficit. He's either shaping himself up to be the best president ever or the worst.

I'm scared to admit it, but I'm getting closer and closer to pouring a glass of the Obama Kool-Aid.

The Wells Fargo / Wachovia Story from 1994 to 2012

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 12:27:43 -0500

A good read, I don't fully buy it but a good read.

You could have summed it up better by saying, "none of the largest banks will fail, so their prices are super cheap right now"

Stimulus Watch: How the Devil Are They Going to Finance All of It?

Fri, 06 Feb 2009 09:53:02 -0500

I hate Keynes. That douche managed to convince the entire modern world that "you gotta spend money to make money" all the while contradicting himself in his own books.

Sadly, his message may have been right but modern interpretations of Keynesian economics don't work since we're off the Gold standard in money is much more liquid than it used to be. Introducing more money into the economy cheapens the dollar, and the taxpayers pay the interest.

Signs of Life in the Auto Sector: Positive Indicators for Cleaner Internal Combustion Technologies

Fri, 30 Jan 2009 23:57:53 -0500

Producing carbon fiber is a resource intensive process. I don't need to tell people here that hybrid batteries are very resource intensive to produce.

Carbon fiber has been around for 50 years, and they still haven't figured out how to mass produce it cheaply. I'm a car guy so I'm all for the use of the stuff. But I'm a car guy, so I'm skeptical about the potential for success.

Signs of Life in the Auto Sector: Positive Indicators for Cleaner Internal Combustion Technologies

Fri, 30 Jan 2009 15:54:38 -0500

Lighter composites means carbon fiber, which is resource intensive to produce and difficult to recycle. Hardly green. It's just like the hybrid buys who ignore how much goes into making those batteries of theirs.

The problem here is more about letting states set their own regulations. I wrote about this Friday morning as well:
weakonomics.com/2009/0.../

That being said, the prospect of investing in part suppliers appears lucrative. There will be plenty of money spent developing new materials and technologies, and the government has pledged money to help as well.

Could this bring home American manufactoring? We'll see.

How Not to Fix the New York Times

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 11:32:14 -0500

my bad:

Pubs won't be able to compete for long in print.

On Jan 22 11:30 AM the weakonomist wrote:

> Blodget might not have it, but you don't either dude. Print media
> as a whole is dead. Yes grandpa I'm sure you enjoy your paper every
> morning, but pub will be able to compete for long in print. Online
> is often free, and my generation isn't down for paying for news.
>
>
> The next 10 years will see the roll-out of e-paper as a distribution
> method. No longer will it be delivered, but instead "beamed".

>
> NYT would do themselves a favor to plan for this, otherwise the internet
> media pubs like Huffington will rape your traditional crap. Hold
> on to paper as long as you can, that's fine, but if you aren't pushing
> your readers to other forms of your content you're screwed.

How Not to Fix the New York Times

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 11:30:37 -0500

Blodget might not have it, but you don't either dude. Print media as a whole is dead. Yes grandpa I'm sure you enjoy your paper every morning, but pub will be able to compete for long in print. Online is often free, and my generation isn't down for paying for news.

The next 10 years will see the roll-out of e-paper as a distribution method. No longer will it be delivered, but instead "beamed".

NYT would do themselves a favor to plan for this, otherwise the internet media pubs like Huffington will rape your traditional crap. Hold on to paper as long as you can, that's fine, but if you aren't pushing your readers to other forms of your content you're screwed.

How the iPhone and Poor Management Contribute to Apple's Downfall

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:06:05 -0500

I might have missed something, but that announcement was back during the release of the first iPhone. AT&T was going to be paying them each month for all iPhones so it made sense to account on the subscription model.

The 3G relationship with AT&T is different. They get all their monies up front. Did the Apple CFO comment on that? If they are accounting for 3Gs up front then this whole article is bunk. 3G has outsold the 2G by some margin.

Five Apple Predictions for 2009

Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:28:23 -0500

iCar, yeah. If Jobs is actually stupid he might do an apple edition VW or something, but he's not going to design a car. Especially with the POS Detroit makes. You're more likely to see Jobs using a Dell Netbook or tMobile G1 before you see Apple get into cars.

Apple will not enter China until they role out an actual network. WiFi? Nope. Not enough 3G coverage there either. When WiMax or LTE is rolled out you'll see Apple move in to China. They also won't enter a new market until the existing ones are saturated. Apple doesn't bite bullets. They make you bite.

Here are some actual predictions:
-New Mac Mini
-DRM Free iTunes
-Jobs Announces Retirement (keyword "announces")
-Macs lose some market share because of down consumer sales
-32 gig iPhone with upgraded battery, no design change
-Profits dip, but remain steady because of new revenue sources, app store
-Kill original iPod

Are Index Funds the Only Rational Choice?

Mon, 15 Dec 2008 12:38:00 -0500

Yeah, we could all spend hours researching 500 stocks to pick the best 15 and then outperform the market by a few percentages. Or we could spend those hours doing something more productive, like doing actual work and making money, or playing with kids, or studying for school.

What you fail to recognize is the cost/benefit of the time needed to research stocks. Most people would serve the economy better by just focusing on their jobs and not having to think about their investments. If every American was a Seeking Alpha reader perhaps your argument would carry some merit.

My only actual point though is this: I could have read the quarterly income statements of a dozen stocks in the time it took me to read this article. I think you should owe us some stock tips for wasting our time.

Three Financial Stocks Worth Holding

Thu, 04 Dec 2008 11:00:58 -0500

That's what I was looking for. Someone worth paying to write

On Dec 01 02:18 PM Chris B wrote:

> Here's my top 3:
>
> USB:
> Old-school retail bank model. Flush with cash. Profits actually growing!!!
> Acquiring competitors for pennies. Mortgage liabilities concentrated
> in the least bubble-prone regions of the US. A little expensive though.
>
>
> DB:
> Took a thumping on their US/UK mortgage assets, but still making
> profits. Single digit PE. Huge, with little doubt about survival.
> Lots of upside when it gets back halfway to 52 week highs.
>
> NBG:
> Should be insulated from US / UK housing meltdown. Single digit PE
> and still making profits. Healthy balance sheet and dividend. At
> this point Greek accounting standards seem about as trustworthy as
> those of USB, C, or BSC, but this is still a speculative money play
> with massive upside.

Three Financial Stocks Worth Holding

Thu, 04 Dec 2008 10:58:33 -0500

good idea, I'll buy the three biggest banks that will benefit most from the bailout. I thought he'd have a good reason to buy citi or give me some banks I've never heard of that are in good shape.

Is this guy paid actual money to write this or is this site just a big hobby?

General Electric: Genuine Risk of Collapse?

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 10:02:46 -0500

If GE fails I'm buying a shotgun and staking claim to my land. WWIII man.

A Lot to Be Thankful for, Despite It All

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 09:58:19 -0500

I'm thankful for: government debt, useless bailouts, ignorant politicians, debt financed war, and CNBC for showing me the only way to live is in fear of losing everything.

Who Cares About Economic Indicators?

Wed, 26 Nov 2008 09:49:16 -0500

I clicked on this article before I knew it was Horowitz. The words are gold. I don't move my actual portofolio very much, but my fake one is sitting tight like you said.

The indicators are useless as actual measures. But like the Dow or even the BCS, they carry significance in most people's lives. I do the opposite of the Dow. The more it sinks, the longer I go.

The Downfall of Keynesian Economics and the U.S. (Part 3 of 3)

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:05:38 -0500

1) If I borrow $100 to farm, then I'm paying someone $100 too.
2) Maybe I paid someone in China, but that is hardly saying it disappeared from our economy. China is kind a a big investor here.
3) Your first chart in Part III only illustrates money is moving through the economy faster. So?
4) Gold and Oil have tanked
5) Low interest rates also means the govt is borrowing on the cheap from those Chinese.
6) This recession only proves that hedge funds don't really hedge, real estate is not a risk free investment, and we're all motivated by our own greed. Like the great depression, you'll see the emergence of a generation of conservative money savers.

I know we're in trouble, but the end of Keynes Economics spells the end of capitalism. The end of capitalism spells the age of The United Federation of Planets. I don't see any Vulcans.

Go buy your gold and sit in an a-bomb shelter grandpa, I'll be at work.