CJJ

Investor Steve Eisman, who was immortalized in Michael Lewis's article The End of Wall Street, says GE Capital is hiding $40-45B of embedded losses - enough to wipe the company out.

Oh yea, and while Yahoo runs Tech Ticker, they currently have a headline on the front page "Analysis: At last, economy leveling off — but bumps not over"

HA and you people think anyone really know what's going to happen. Keep thinking any of you or any person knows what the future holds. You'll have plenty of people to deflect the blame from yourself.

Investor Steve Eisman, who was immortalized in Michael Lewis's article The End of Wall Street, says GE Capital is hiding $40-45B of embedded losses - enough to wipe the company out.

Why would anyone believe anything Henry Blodget says? Really Yahoo! runs this guy and Aaron Task's crap all day every day. I wonder where they advertise to get their guests..."Hey, who thinks the world is coming to an end and wants to come on Tech Ticker to talk about it?"

Two days ago Henry had a video in which Aaron convinced him to stay away from the market.

Isn't if funny a guy who was barred from securities and Aaron Task(who knows what crap he's pulled) are now given free reign to take the economy to task all the while spreading any speculative bad news they can.

Do you notice as stocks rise and their shorts get crushed they put out videos at about 3 times the pace? Point is, be careful who you are listening to. Don't you have a question about Henry's position in GE after this "speculation". I'm sure I could find one person out there who hates just about every stock. Just cause this guy was the focus of an article doesn't change the fact he is 1 person.

Can't wait until all of the populist anger gets the bank execs thrown out and 5 years from now they are employed by the media, government, other companies and people all forget and start listening to them.

On Time Frames and Market Trends

Hmm over time inflation goes up, stocks go up...Couldn't we say it all goes hand in hand?
Unless we decide that prices are never going to be allowed to rise above a certain point I think over time your graph continues.

Unemployment Will Take Out This Bear Rally by July

Gtarras, don't you know Shadowstats tells everyone that unemployment is actually quite close to the 30s and we'll be there very soon...It will be just like the 30s except with cars, video games, the internet, HD television, cell phones, iphones, text messages, etc...

Oh yea, but shadowstats forgets the under the table economy that has been steadily increasing for the last 20 years(way before this downturn).

Also, no one has ever been laid off before, no company has ever gone out of business...

On Apr 09 07:32 PM Gtarras wrote:

> Oh man.. so many words, but all you could have said should be unemployment
> up ---> market down... oh, and by the way, thanks a lot for great
> explanation why exactly unemployment similar to the 80s justifies
> market drop similar to the 30s.....

It's 'Hammer Time' for Gold

Forgot all about your shadowstats comments. Shadowstats has always had inflated stats compared to the Government. Like right now it says we are still at a moderate inflation.
Its unemployment numbers are off the chart. Which is my biggest beef with shadowstats. For a "contrarian" type site that is supposed to think outside the box it seems convienient that Shadowstats believes everyone is "underemployed" that claims to be. And that it really believes that all unemployed people are actually trying day and night to get jobs. And the BIGGEST thing it just ignores is the under the table economy, which could be 4-10% of the overall economy.
Hey, if you're going to tout such a "special" site at least understand that it is designed to paint a dire picture. Maybe it should be called "ItsAllAConspiracyStat...


On Apr 09 03:59 PM GMiki1 wrote:

> Yes, the gold advocates do have alternate opinions. In fact, they
> were predicting an economic collapse for a couple of years before
> the collapse occurred, and when no one else was. The reason gold
> advocates have such alternate economic views is that most follow
> Austrian economics and not the theories of Keynes. By the way, most
> follow the inflation statistics at Shadow Government Stats and not
> the federally published statistics. The view of inflation by gold
> analysts is much more radical than 8 to 10 percent in two to three
> years. And that's why we invest in gold.

It's 'Hammer Time' for Gold

Whoa, so now gold advocates as a whole predicted the economic downturn. How broad are your strokes? How big is your canvas?

Jesus?

On Apr 09 03:59 PM GMiki1 wrote:

> Yes, the gold advocates do have alternate opinions. In fact, they
> were predicting an economic collapse for a couple of years before
> the collapse occurred, and when no one else was. The reason gold
> advocates have such alternate economic views is that most follow
> Austrian economics and not the theories of Keynes. By the way, most
> follow the inflation statistics at Shadow Government Stats and not
> the federally published statistics. The view of inflation by gold
> analysts is much more radical than 8 to 10 percent in two to three
> years. And that's why we invest in gold.

It's 'Hammer Time' for Gold

Okay so you have given reasons why people buy gold. Fine, no problem with that or the reasons.
However because people have these fears does not make them true.
Also gold holders never actually answer important questions like
If the fiat currencies actually failed, what value does gold retain? Minute quantities are worth a good bit of money. It would quite hard to split it up enough to match what it was worth.
It is also very probable that things like food would become much more valuable than gold and that would occur very quickly.
The only reason people pick gold is that it lasts. Well that would be great if A)We lived thousands of years ago or B)We all lived for thousands of years.

I have no problem that people invest in gold, actually it makes 100% sense for some portion of a diversified portfolio to have metals and commodities. But goldbugs should be just as afraid of a complete breakdown as everyone else. Perhaps goldbugs are just hoping for a really, really bad downturn. But that begs the next questions, wouldn't you do just as well or nearly as well if things kept on keeping on.

Fear has its place and time in the world, but a world based on fear is a disaster.



On Apr 09 06:10 PM huskerbob wrote:

> More than an indicator of inflation, gold is a measure of confidence
> in paper money and the economy. Most were lulled into comfort by
> the performance of the economy after gold's peak, which became the
> greatest economic expansion in world history.
> Now the blinders are off and people are forced to see that the economy
> has been built on a foundation of sand. Governments have not inspired
> confidence with their reactions. Gold is a an assurance of something
> with tangible value. Paper promises have lost the seeming solidity
> they had in the 90's.
> Gold buyers fear inflation, but more so lack confidence in the management
> of our currency and the promises of the equities market.

How Long Will the Good Times Last?

Make choices based on the facts. I love when bloggers say their opinion editorial is FACT and other stuff is not fact. Its just mind boggling. These people truly think what they write is written in stone.

Maybe the key change is that people have to stop looking at buying a home as a temporary stop on the way to riches and a bigger home. Guess what for 10-20 years this became TRUE. This wasn't a mirage, it was actually occurring. It is no longer happening.

So even if it takes 20 years for a house to be a "winning" investment, who cares, morgates are 30 years in most cases. So actually, this argument is to buy now. I agree there will be a better time in the next few years, but right now you can lock in the lowest 30 yr rate in history.

People need to realize buying a house is NOT an investment. Sorry, that's the thing I haven't seen people realize yet. They will.

Disclosure: I'm a renter(FACT) and am against buying currently due to expected 20-30% price decline before bottom and worries about job security(OPINION)

Charting the Ugliness of Earnings

Have companies never failed before? Seriously I feel like people are convinced that without Circuit City we are doomed.
You can't speak from both sides of the mouth by saying that "bailing out banks" is killing capitalism and also that failing businesses means we are doomed? Shouldn't you be saying something along the lines that failing businesses is good?

Circuit City is not integral to the economy, while I will argue banks are. Sorry that's reality. Also banks still have huge future earnings potential. So, why people aren't pushing for meaningful changes while keeping the banks we have around so they can pay off their debts(sure it might take 10-20 years...we got time). Why people are resigned that if we haven't fixed every problem in 6 months we have no chance to do it for the rest of human time is a stupid argument.

How about this argument. Earnings fell off a cliff because companies are much smarter and can move much quicker to cut inventories, jobs, etc. than they were in the past, even just a few years ago. Oh, yea, that makes sense.

Its funny you didn't see all these "angry" shareholders when earnings were supposedly a rising "mirage"...

Shareholders, like the average citizen, are killing the economy demanding earnings at all costs or the execs are thrown to the wolves and replaced. Its a stupid way to run companies and we're paying the price for the internet experts.


On Apr 09 04:30 PM ArkansasAngie wrote:

> There are many shoes out there. One is earnings. The number of companies
> filing for bankruptcy maybe turn out to be quite pronounced. The
> resulting dominos of unemployment, CDS’s, supply chain et al create
> their own trend/spiral.
>
> The list of companies in trouble is growing … not shrinking. And
> … as always … it comes down to earnings. Did you make enough money
> to pay your bills.
>
> Out of curiosity – doesn’t M2M affect non-financial companies, too?
> Is there a quick/dirty/easy way to check how a company is handling
> this?

Unemployment Will Take Out This Bear Rally by July

Wow altarman...so the doom and gloomers show their true colors of being merely angry sots.
If this article was accurate...there would never be a way to ever get out of any recession or depression.

Layoffs would beget less spending.
All lost jobs would never return.
All new jobs will go overseas
Small upticks in inventory would just be producing to stay in business.

Much of those sentiments have parts of truth and what this author predicts may very well come to be in the near term, lets admit, he's got a lot of bad factors on his side. But really, if this was the bible to the world, every downturn would end up with stocks going to 0.

As Cetin brings up, unemployment usually rises for long after the turn(except perhaps when WWII came along). Thats the thing about turns, people don't see them coming. If they did we'd all know when they would arrive.

No one has a crystal ball, maybe that should be the moral of the story.

What the Leading Indicators Tell Us About This Rally

So I'm a bit confused why we have become SOOO caught up with items like:
We can't go back to being a consumer driven economy? Huh? What is an advanced economy driven by? Once you build the ballpark you don't need the builders anymore you need people to buy tickets to the game.
We went from 63-65% consumer driven economy to 70%. Okay, so we need to come down 3 or 4 or 5%, that can be replaced by a new industry. Or have inventions become a thing of the past?
Housing went up from 65% to about 70%. Again we are talking 5% as if the world is coming to an end.
Add the 5% of housing and 5% of consumer spending and you have the magical 10% depression number.
Except much of the consumer spending 5% will go to saving and paying down debt(a long term net positive)
Much of the 5% housing number will go to saving and much of it will be used to rent.

Bullish Sentiment Rises, Money Market Cash Levels Decline

Yea but anyone who is in the market now is foolish. This rally isn't real.

Actually, if we are talking reality, people really have made 20-25% in the last 8 weeks, so I guess thats real if your timeframe is up until today.

8 weeks from now things could be up 10% more or down 20%...

So yes, everything is real people.

Data Not Supportive of Higher Stock Prices

Oh yea, and claiming that the US is now USSA or that Obama is a communist or that the end of the world is upon us or that we are mortgating or grandkids futures just because thats your opinion is not the reality I am speaking of(again not you Dr. O).

Actually our Grandkids are in a great spot. This will all be worked out by the time they are older and they'll be living the good life...oh yea, life is already pretty good, so I guess the really good life.

Data Not Supportive of Higher Stock Prices

I get a little worked up over the blogging/commenting community. I am not a fan, so wish I could refrain from even doing it, but sometimes there has to be a voice of reason.
Too many people blindly harping about the injustices and stealing that have been committed on them personally with absolutely no backup.
For anyone who really, truly has lived within their means this downturn should put you in stronger position. If you lost a whole lot on stocks, sorry but that is your fault.
If you lose your job, that is a different story and sucks, but we are acting as if this is the first time people have been laid off in the country. That it is the first time we've had a nasty recession, had a bank crisis.
To me, unless people start being realistic about things and expectations we ain't going to move forward.
Good info on the Cubs tickets. Was at Wrigley for all 3 of the Cubs-Sox a few years back. Talk about a good time.

A Cool $200 Billion for Bank of America?

The media is now SPECULATION. The market already turned into a gambling hall. The media used to just report the facts on what happened in the gambling hall.

Media before: Joe just lost his blackjack hand when his 19 was beat by the dealers 20 [Disclosure: No positions]
Media now: Joe is going to lose his next hand based solely on, well, nothing. [Disclosure: I win if people talk about Joe losing or if Joe loses, so lets all really root for Joe to lose]