CJJ

A Junk Stock Rally

I love how the doom and gloomers call out anyone pointing out a contrarian point of view to their own as "misconception of reality" and "claims with absolutely no basis"...
Why don't you all realize that the market is down almost 50%. It was down almost 60%...That the markets were pricing in depression prices.
Just because typical servere contractions see a huge over-reaction to the downside before returning to the norm doesn't mean this time that will occur. I love how doom and gloomers get to say "this time is different" and at the same time say "this time is the same" when it suit their thoughts.
None of you is right or wrong because predictions are cheap and impossible.
Over the last 16 months the doom and gloomers are right. Over the last 2 months Cetin is right. Who cares really unless your timeframe was 16 months or 2 months.

This Market Is Ridiculous

Is anyone going to ever start talking about the internet age and the rise of the Egoism of the 21st century.
I mean there is always a level of "now is the most important time in history". You watch a sporting event that is great and immediately peolpe are buzzing "Was that the best ever?"...It may have been really, really good, but the best ever is probably quite arguable.

I believe the Internet has exacerbated this type of thinking. Of course everyone is saying this is worse than 1970s, 80s, WWII...
Even if things level off and growth is flat for 10 years, in 1-2 years everyone will be convinced we are in a depression(some are already) and the 1930s will be replace as the Old Not So Bad Depression.

People are calling the Tea Parties from the other day the "biggest grassroots movement ever".

Get off it. Only history will really judge this period. But if anything, I can guarantee pessimism and "this is the worst" will continue to bubble. The Internet loves it and fosters it.

This Market Is Ridiculous

From CBC - "3 huge financials smashing estimated earnings is due to the new accounting rules and government sponsored manipulations."

Ah how your history only seems to go back a few years. A truer sentence would be "3 huge financial smashing estimated earnings is due to RETURNING TO THE OLD ACCOUNTING RULES"

During every recession banks ARE INSOLVENT. Actually, banks are ALWAYS INSOLVENT if you call on their marks on any given day.

Have fun with the half of the truth that supports your thoughts. I'm not falling one way or another on stocks going up or down, but there is nothing in the world that can make any of you future tellers.

As someone said earlier, even if you are right, you just missed a 25% swing. I love how people call it a Suckers Rally. Well if you take your profits I'd call it a 3-5 year gain in 3 months. Seems like the sucker in that case is the guy calling a drop "in the future".

TALF Creates a New Class of Toxic CMBS Assets

The real issue is they packaged 30 year to maturity assets into vehicles that need to be marked after just months-years of being packaged. This really doesn't work well when the economy tanks.

Again people don't realize there was a five year "mess up" and people aren't looking to address this. Someone writing a story would just erase it. Someone playing a video game would just start the level over.
We're all trying to continue along without just taking care of the mistake.

Whither the Financials

Agree Jim. However unfair, without taking care of the banks all the other stuff is just hot air. If the economy starts running on something other than money then banks won't matter, until then fix them or continue to slide.

Banks Lend, But Only TARP Money?

Well if I was BAC I would be keeping very public records of these loans. That way when the recession deepens(just need to get my Bloomberg headline terms in there) and the loans they gave to solid borrowers default people might start to realize that although these banks got involved in a lot of risky loans much of this is a result of a deep, deep downturn no one was expecting.
At some point you need to stop looking for the causes(the cause is simple, the herd mentality was housing was going up forever) and look for solutions that are actually realistic and not going to cause everyone to lose their jobs to work. Kicking the can down the road actually isn't a bad alternative. At some point in the future the global community or the US population may come to its sense that for the greater good debt should be forgiven and growth restored.
My bet is globalization will have its hiccups but prevail. Cosumerism will have its hiccups but prevail. Growth will slow but will prevail.
In the short term though the downers will have the upper hand. You'll read about global warming, peak oil, peak water, food shortages, nuclear weapons, biological weapons, terrorism, religious extremists, government conspiracies, overdue volcanic eruptions, end of the world theories a plenty. The scariest and worst story is the best story.

Banks Lend, But Only TARP Money?

This place has the most ridiculous headlines. Here I'd like to ask what the point is. You provide no backup that your headline is true or even partially true. Thanks for blowing the top on the economic crisis with this whim.

Can I write an article called "American citizens Pay, For Food Not their Debts" where I talk about citizens walking away from their car loans, their credit card loans and their home loans not because they can't pay them but because they don't feel like paying them. It will have a section on the media being a group of rumor mongering alarmists.

Lets not all just jump in a circle jerk of blame on this stuff. SA seems to be part of ground zero for it.