NumbersGuy

6 Comments

    • Is the Peak Oil Theory Valid? [view article]
      You can't be serious in thinking the the "geological rate of petroleum production" could possibly be equal to or higher than our rate of consumption? The oil we're consuming accumulated over millions or billions of years! And even your optimistic estimate stated that US reserves could supply the world for 30 years. Come on now....

      I've heard a lot of arguments against the Peak Oil theory - and your argument that there are reserves out that we're not touching isn't totally unreasonable, though you don't address the increased cost of getting to those reserves. I believe we could get at them, but probably not fast enough to make up for the dropping supply from other sources. (OK maybe if we had started earlier...)

      But drop your first argument - that's just ludicrous.       May 30 11:19 AM
    • Food and Fuel: Brazil Breaks New Records [view article]
      The problem is factoring the effect this may have on climate change. (And yes, I am taking it as a given - I'm going with the vast majority of the world's scientists, not the small group that denies it.)

      To do a full economic analysis of that problem, we would first need to determine how much rain forest is being destroyed to make room for new crops. Then you have to determine how much carbon is lost, net, as a result of that deforestation and, assuming you believe the market cost of carbon, factor that into the analysis.

      Many would argue (with some reason at this point) that the carbon market doesn't really reflect the reality of the climate change problem. In that case you can at least assess whether biofuels are helping alleviate or are making worst that problem.

      But, in the end, I guess that's a separate question and doesn't really effect the fuels or food debate.       May 09 10:17 AM
    • China Clean Energy Halts Biodiesel Production [view article]
      I suspect it would still make business sense if they could get a fair price for the diesel. $700 per ton comes out to about $2.40 per gallon (293 gallons per ton). If they could get something closer to US diesel prices ($3.50 before you add the $1 per gallon credit which is a travesty of another sort), they'd probably still have a business. Apr 25 08:59 AM
    • Why Bush Doesn't Like Cap-and-Trade [view article]
      You know it's almost surreal that people continue to deny that we're impacting the environment by pumping all this carbon into the air. But I'm not going to change anyone's mind on that topic and it really doesn't matter.

      I could also talk about Peak Oil and point out that we need to wean our economy from oil for that reason. But that could lead to a counter productive argument as well.

      So let's ust look at oil prices as they are today. Are they jumping because the dollar has risen or because Peak Oil is upon us and demand for oil continues to grow from Asia and other developing areas? Probably it's all three of those things and it doesn't matter really, because the prices are what they are.

      So what are we going to do about it? We need to use energy more efficiently or the economy will be brought to its knees. How do we make that happen? A Cap and Trade System or an Energy Tax seem to be the two ideas on the table right now. We need to do that to remain competitive regardless of what you think about climate change or peak oil. That's a fact on the ground that we must deal with.

      I prefer a tax as it's more "efficient" but that might not be politically feasible. So cap and trade is likely part of our future. Either works for me because it incentivizes people and businesses to use energy more efficiently which saves money and makes us more competitive. And that's a good thing, right? No matter what you think of the politics?       Apr 17 10:54 AM
    • Telecom Argentina May Benefit from Mature Cellular Market [view article]
      That's a great analysis with one caveat. I wouldn't look to a buyout anytime soon. The Argentine government is trying to buy back foreign owned companies (such as Aerolineas) and would make life miserable for (and probably just flat out block) any proposed Telecom buyer (unless the buyer gave some of the government's friends a piece of the action.) Apr 16 01:40 PM
    • It's Now 'Official': Ethanol Is a Scam [view article]
      Come on huskerbob, tell that to rioting Mexican housewives who have seen tortilla prices go through the roof. Remember an increase of 10 cents per pound can have a huge impact on someone living in poverty in the developing world. It may not matter to joe sixpack in the US, who should probably drop a few pounds anyway. But to a large part of the world that increase does matter.

      (I guess the problem to a large extent is that we have Sunilsixpack and Xaiosixpack competing with Joe for hamburgers, but that's another point.)
      Apr 10 08:42 AM
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