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rnsmth

rnsmth
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  • 20 Dividend Growth Stocks To Buy Today For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 1 [View article]
    Pay attention Placebo - you are having reading comprehension problems:

    <<It's interesting that you started learning about DGI in late 2012>>

    I actually wrote 2011.

    <<From July 2014 through now, I have done well with the 15-20% maximum I have had in calls." That sounds like you're not a committed DGI-for-the-straight-guy yet.>>

    I wrote that I currently have 1% in calls and that I run a bifurcated portfolio strategy.

    A lot of people who are committed to DGI with a major portion of their portfolios do so. Pay attention and you will not make so many errors in your posts.
    Aug 9, 2015. 09:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Growth Stocks To Buy Today For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 1 [View article]
    <<It's interesting how many DGI enthusiasts stray from the DGI discipline. >>

    I did not know DGI from shinola back then, hence I did not stray. I started learning about it in late 2011.

    As for now, Apple is an emerging dividend growth stock that has raised its dividend for 3 years and made a public commitment to raise it every year going forward. You should pay attention.
    Aug 9, 2015. 09:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Growth Stocks To Buy Today For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 1 [View article]
    <<Why are you still using calls? Can you not resist the temptation to swing for the fences? >>

    Not swinging for the fences now, not with about 1% of the portfolio in calls at the current time. It is a hobby and one I enjoy. From July 2014 through now, I have done well with the 15-20% maximum I have had in calls, and the profits have increased the amount I have in dividend growth stocks (and my income from those positions). It is a bifurcated strategy that not everyone will understand or agree with. It is certainly one that not everyone should attempt.

    I may have done about as well, I do not know. Assuming about a 30% decline in 2008 (if I had been in DG stocks), it would have taken about a 28% CAGR from Jan 1 2009 to Dec 31, 2013 to reach where I ended up. Does that sound reasonable?
    Aug 9, 2015. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Growth Stocks To Buy Today For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 1 [View article]
    <<So you're going to read all kinds of sucess stories from 2008, but most have to do more with luck than anything else. >>

    I will tell you a story from 2008 to the present.

    I went catatonic in 2008. I was heavily weighted in bullish Apple calls in our IRAs. The account balances declined 85%. There were many days when I did not even log into our brokerage accounts. Those were not the only investments we had. We have Individual Account Plans in Oregon's public pension system - that was the defined contribution part of the hybrid system that was started in 2004. Those accounts were down about 27%. We also contributed to a 457 plan account that was split between large cap growth, large cap value, mid/small cap, international and a little in intermediate term fixed. We added as much to it as we could from 2008 through the end of 2013.

    You can see the results of those accounts here: http://1.usa.gov/1J4WopL

    Back to the IRAs, which were in bloodbath land, having lost 85% of their value. In early 2009 I went back into bullish Apple calls. Making up lost ground was the only way to early retirement, and being risk-averse was not going to accomplish that. If I failed, I would end up working until I was 67, which would not be the end of the world. We had pensions and SS we could fall back on.

    Well, it worked pretty good. in 2009 we made 85%, 2010 133%. 2011 was not as good, we were flattish. In that year I started moving to dividend stocks, but when Apple got silly cheap that fall I sold them all and went back all in into bullish Apple calls and LEAPS. In 2012 we were up 153% and I started moving back into dividend stocks - this time into dividend growth stocks. The lessons learned in 2008 allowed to preserve capital during the Apple decline in 2012-13, and in October of 2013 I retired, just short of the age of 62.

    The dividend growth portfolio is doing all right. I am quick to cut dividend freezers and some companies where I think the dividend growth rate or the dividend may not be safe. Among these are MCD, CVX, DRI, INTC, SDRL and probably a couple of others that do not come to mind right away.

    Last year, after a year here in Mexico of seeing how our expenses would work out, I moved about 20% of the IRAs back into Apple calls. It has worked out all right. Only about 1% is there now, but I think this fall and winter might be good.

    So there is my story. You will just have to take my word for it. It is better documented over the years in some other places, including one private board for independent Apple analysts. Frankly, I don't care if you believe it or not :)

    We are living well, our dividends equal about 15% of our income and are all being reinvested for the time being. One of our positions, started in mid-2012 have a total return of over 100% (KRFT, now KHC). Several are between 50 and 70% (OHI, JNJ, LMT). Most are plenty green, but some more recent ones are down 5-10% (LXP, EMR, TROW, VZ). I am satisfied with our performance and with our business plan.
    Aug 9, 2015. 08:28 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Growth Stocks To Buy Today For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 1 [View article]
    <<Many are fighting the last war here. >>

    Maybe some are. Others are monitoring their companies carefully and making decisions about the safety of the dividend and the sustainability of acceptable levels of dividend increases based on the current and projected conditions.

    Many of us are.
    Aug 9, 2015. 05:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Growth Stocks To Buy Today For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 1 [View article]
    << Valuation tools have been used by many quantitative funds to achieve portfolio outperformance relative to the S&P 500.>>

    Which ones? Since there are many, would you please name five to ten.

    Thanks in advance
    Aug 9, 2015. 02:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Dividend Growth Stocks To Buy Today For Your Retirement Portfolios: Part 1 [View article]
    <<EarMoney ---You should be nervous and skeptical. There is nothing magic about these holdings. They will go down along with almost everything else (stocks) in a market correction or downturn.>>

    There is something special about these holdings, though. This is it: There is more than one person here whose dividend income increased during the Great Recession, even as their account values decreased. If they were reinvesting those growing dividends at those lower share prices, well, I suspect they are happy campers.

    By talking about share price as the primary metric, an important point is being missed.
    Aug 9, 2015. 10:54 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Art Of Owning A Blue Chip Healthcare REIT [View article]
    The Trump dilutes the article. Leave him out of future ones, that would be my advice.
    Aug 7, 2015. 04:54 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Dividend Growth Investing (DGI) A Fad? [View article]
    I know that I get a lot of dividends next week. They will all be reinvested, giving me more shares and a higher dividend amount in three months.

    I think those paying attention and who can filter out noise can avoid some dividend freezes and cuts. Not all of them, mind you, but some.

    One does not need to have a perfect record in order to have a growing income from financially strong companies that pay dividends and have a habit of increasing them.

    Let me repeat that: One does not need to have a perfect record in order to do well.
    Aug 7, 2015. 03:58 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Falls... And Lands In My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    << historically we have the worst month for the markets - September - still ahead. October is the most volatile. IMO, the correction in the markets have already started and the next 90 days or so, could get really ugly, and Apple will not be immune.>>

    That means my dividend reinvestments will bring me more shares and more shares will bring me more dividends. Oh, and my account balances will be lower for a period of time.

    Oh well.
    Aug 7, 2015. 12:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Falls... And Lands In My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    << I know in a few years AAPL will appear on the CCC list, and the price and dividend will more than justify my decision.>>

    I think it becomes a near challenger next year.
    Aug 6, 2015. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Falls... And Lands In My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    A pretty good account of Morgan Stanley's note on AAPL today

    http://on.barrons.com/...
    Aug 6, 2015. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Dividend Growth Investing (DGI) A Fad? [View article]
    some - seeking alpha

    me - seeking income and pay raises
    Aug 6, 2015. 02:24 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Falls... And Lands In My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    There is quite a bit

    From the Fy 2015 Q1 conference call:

    I would point out that only a small fraction of the installed base has upgraded. And so there is a lot more people within the installed base. But I would also point out that we had the highest number of customers new to iPhone last quarter than in any prior launch. And also that the current iPhone line up experienced the highest Android switcher rate in any of the last three launches in the three previous years. And we didn’t look back to the other years. So I don’t know about those.

    Fy 2015 Q2

    - Tim Cook

    Bill, we continue to see a higher rate of switchers than we have seen in previous cycles, and so we’re extremely excited about that. We also continue to see a reasonable percentage of first time buyers, particularly in some of the emerging markets.

    Fy 2915 Q3

    But as I back up from it and look at it more from a macro point of view, the things that makes me very bullish is the 27% number I just quoted, the fact that we are seeing the highest Android switcher rate, the customer satisfaction that we have on the iPhone versus the competition. It's a huge margin. The loyalty rate that we have versus competition, an enormous gap there.
    Aug 6, 2015. 01:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Falls... And Lands In My Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    So, when looking at AAPL as a dividend growth investment - which is one way to look at the shares, what do we have now?

    We have pretty good dividend increases for the past three years and a commitment from the board, expressed by the CEO, to increase the dividend every year going forward. We have a company with a low payout ratio and plenty of earnings and free cash flow to support that. We have a company that, with around a 20% share of the smartphone market is raking in close to 90% of total global mobile phone profits. We have a company with the highest satisfaction rating in the industry. We have a company with the highest customer retention rate in the industry. We have a company that has introduced (Apple Music, iCloud) and is on the verge of introducing more (TV) subscription services, and is increasing its services revenue.

    What, me worry?

    Nope, not me.
    Aug 5, 2015. 09:13 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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