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rnsmth

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  • Apple Watch: Revenue Projections [View article]
    I am thinking 12 million sold in CY 2015.

    I think that is a good amount and a good expectation to set.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myth Vs. Reality With Apple's Stock Buyback [View article]
    I am bullish on Apple also. My primary concerns at this time are expectations getting out of whack, particularly in terms of CY 2015 Watch sales and for the capital allocation announcement in April. This is particularly the expectation expressed both here and by some in the broader analyst community for a sizable increase in the share buyback program.

    I am adopting a “four-fer”

    1) March quarter results - they will be wonderful, I think

    2) Capital allocation announcement - wait and see. I am expecting a dividend increase that is larger than last years (percentage-wise). We may get a notion about what management things of Apple’s valuation with the size of the buyback announcement, or maybe not. I am thinking we will see something around 20 billion in new authorization through the end of CY 2016 - roughly in the $5 billion a quarter in new authorization.

    3) TV subscription plan - A big positive here. Apple has been building out its content delivery capabilities and they should be ready to handle the demand. Millions will subscribe

    4) Apple Watch sales. The release of an entirely new product line usually contains some risk. I am confident Apple can handle that, and my primary concern is that unit sales expectations are too high.
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myth Vs. Reality With Apple's Stock Buyback [View article]
    Apple is at 17 times earning, not 16 times.

    How can you expect to be taken seriously with errors like that?

    Answer, you are not to be taken seriously.
    Mar 23, 2015. 01:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myth Vs. Reality With Apple's Stock Buyback [View article]
    Morningstar's key ratios page for Apple shows 6.617 billion shares at the end of the FY 2012 Fiscal Year.

    Yahoo Finance shows 5.82 billion shares as the current number of shares outstanding.

    Apple has bought back (and maybe retired) 12% of its shares. I remember looking at the number of authorized shares in the most recent SEC filing, but do not remember exactly what it was. The record date was in early January, if my memory is correct.

    Apple reports on the dollar amount of share buybacks in each quarter's earnings conference call. Here is the bit from January's call:

    "We spent 5 billion to repurchase 45 million Apple shares through open market transactions, paid 2.8 billion in dividends and equivalents, and utilized over 500 million to net share settle vesting employee RSUs. We also retired an additional 8 million shares in connection with our accelerated share repurchase programs."
    Mar 21, 2015. 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Might Be Time To Take Some Apple Profits [View article]
    Nope. Apple is an equal weight position in my dividend growth portfolio and I would no more sell it than I would shoot myself in the foot.
    Mar 10, 2015. 05:30 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity [View article]
    Michael Gartenberg (now an Apple employee) ‏@Gartenberg 5m5 minutes ago

    “Those who know don’t speak. Those who speak don’t know.” Wise words from Toby Ziegler #westwing
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Defies The Law Of Large Numbers [View article]
    <<I need people to sell me better on the long case... Because I'm seriously looking to invest in this company... >>

    Do your DD and make your own decision.
    Feb 16, 2015. 09:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Defies The Law Of Large Numbers [View article]
    OTOH, and I reminded of something from grad school days. One evening I was chatting with a Management prof and, being a social psychologist I said to him:

    All these psychologists who are cited in the literature, many of their theories are misrepresented in the supervisory management literature.

    He replied: Ron, I know that, but you have to understand that in business we take this stuff and bastardize it for our own purposes.

    :)
    Feb 16, 2015. 08:43 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Apple Defies The Law Of Large Numbers [View article]
    You oughta be educating people about what the law of large numbers is instead of perpetuating the chronic misunderstanding of it
    Feb 16, 2015. 08:22 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    Kuo had been wrong more often that not. It is a mistake to deify any analyst because he got one of a lot of guesses right, while missing outrageously on the others
    Feb 9, 2015. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Loser Strategy [View article]
    Still a loser strategy, I see.

    HA, HA, HA, HA, HA
    Feb 2, 2015. 09:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: More Data On The iOS/Android Struggle [View article]
    May Apple keep losing in the same way it has since it IPO'd

    I'll continue to be delighted.
    Feb 1, 2015. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    No, Tim said that channel inventory was 200,000 units lower than at the start of the quarter, I think. You could look it up in the call transcript. Apple is below the minimum level of their channel inventory goal
    Jan 28, 2015. 07:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    I do not think very highly of him.
    Jan 28, 2015. 06:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, We're Not Worthy [View article]
    Kirk Burgess likely did better. See Phillip Elmer Dewitts post on how the analysts did.
    Jan 28, 2015. 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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