bc818

GMAC's Deal with Sheila Bair

More 0% financing for everyone! Yipeeee.

Dollar Forced to Abdicate Its Throne

I dont even think the "real" dollar is falling so much as the renmenbi is rising, but since the renmenbi is pegged everyone else declines. FX 101. However, usually this is a banana republic country trying to peg their currency to the dollar and as a consequence republic gets smoked.

If the renmenbi peg is removed, the bottom dollar drops out, but the chinese populace may feel so much wealthier that they actually begin to consume. Or, the populace continues to hoard and global velocity of money becomes a fraction of what it was.

On Oct 26 10:30 AM R0bert wrote:

> there is really one key word left out. CHINA
>
> Dollar has a bottom as long as the renmenbi is pegged. RMB floats
> and than the bottom drops out.

Bond Expert: Friday Wrap

In your corporate bond examples you mention corporate bonds remain rather rich. What if its the Treasury yield that's too low? 30 yr mortgage rates are sub 5% and the Fed is almost finished with their buyback. If they couldnt break 4.5% with the Fed purchasing, then i dont see them doing it without the Fed this time either. Consequently TBT is the lowest its been since April. I'm long TBT options looking for a rise next week. Looking hard at PST too.

Four European Oil Company ADRs with Dividends Greater than 5%

BP has a large exposure to natural gas too.

The Mark-to-Market Bank Trade This Week

I like your thinking but i dont like how you're playing it. The double etfs work better on streaks. Since the ETF can compound daily, it works better if the stock moves in the same direction for consecutive days rather than one large pop. I also think the large insurers will have more of a pop than the banks. HIG for one, has a ton of these bonds with no intention of ever selling them, so I presume a more accurate price would be the default rate you mentioned, $0.88 on the dollar. Also, buying out of the money puts on the SKF will work far better and give you a much bigger bang for your buck.

Will the EU Fiddle While Eastern Europe Burns?

Hasnt this sort of behavioral economics been tested in the lab? when an individual is given a choice between what's best for them and what's best for the group, they almost always choose what's best for them and screw the group....fun times ahead.

Can Homeowners Arbitrage the Mortgage Subsidy?

Agreed. The opportunity cost generally kills these kinds of arbitrage opportunites. Same as your credit card example. Imagine something goes terrbily wrong and you're one day late paying the credit card. then, imagine the fees, fines and penalties that would ensue as you try to unwind the position.

However, in your analysis you neglect the tax consequences. The mortgage interest is tax deductible and he doesnt have to pay tax on the muni, so there's signifcant tax savings there--although probably still not enough to make this practical.

Small Caps Stand to Gain when Hedge Funds Jump Back In

I prefer VB to IWM. VB has a higher dividend and lower rexpense ratio; however, IWM has much more volume. There performance is nearly identical.

USO: Death by a Thousand Contangos

USL is the 12 month. (They buy all the contracts within the next year rather than just the front month.) However, there's significantly less volume which makes liquidity an issue.

If you want just the refiners and processors its OIH.





On Feb 24 10:59 AM tomatden wrote:

> Thanks for the info Milan. Is there another ETF or equity you would
> suggest for someone wanting to go long on crude?

12 Reasons I'm Still Buying Oil

Agreed, oil is cheap, but why USO? Why not OIL, OIH, or USL? Oil can be traded through a variety of ETFs, so what makes this one any better or worse than the others?

Junk Bonds Today: Realistic Levels?

what about HYG? Its got twice as many assets and slightly more trading volume.

A Lesson from TIPS

And what if inflation is 10% and i have the TIPS in a tax free retirement account... Everything else just got crushed except my TIPS. As for you gold fiends, dont forget to include the carrying cost of buying a safe. As for me, I really dont want to invest in a strategy whose end game has me lugging around gold coins and asking a waitress to give me change in silver. Everyone knows that's a loser, just ask Sacagawea.

Kick Consumers While They're Down: Oil and Gasoline Diverge

Did someone say ideal pair trade? Short UGA while going long USO.

Cramer's Lightning Round - Smack, Smack, Smack Black and Decker (1/30/09)

Actually Cramer first picked TNH when it was 80 months ago and now it's 125.

As for Black and Decker's dividend is a sure gonner. It's credit rating is flirting with being downgraded to BBB (one step away from junk). You know they're in trouble when the CEO says this quarter was "abysmal" and "our (bad) hedges virtually guarantee a loss for the next 3 quarters"...

fun times over at BDK.

Will PIMCO Be Needing a Bailout Soon?

Are any of you even reading Gross's op eds? He's moving to inflation protected treasuries. TIPS. Expected inflation has risen over the past 2 months to 1%. (Historically, its more like 3-4%) If we do experience high inflation, stagflation, or hyperinflation like all the nay sayers are predicting TIPS will soar.

Is it better to buy TBT or just buy a long (slightly in the money) put option on TLT?