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  • Update: AT&T Earnings - Biggest Growth? CapEx [View article]
    Apple is planning to produce 6 million iphone6, to be introduced in Sep. A lot of customers are holding back on upgrading and waiting. If T gets one third or 2 million new sub/renews just from the iphone6, what will that do for T's growth ?
    Is the capex in anticipation of this tide of new subs, to avoid bandwidth limitations?
    Jul 25, 2014. 11:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM) Management Discusses Q2 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]

    2.35% can be explained by the div going to the owners of record on Wed July 16
    The rest is probably option related since options expires on the third week of the month. MaxPain for TSM options expiring on 7/19/2014 is right around $21 and look where the stock is priced at.
    Jul 16, 2014. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Invests In Satellites: A Sign Of Decay In Old Line Telecom Players? [View article]
    How about mobile hot spots that is satellite based. The satellite device can be a lot bigger than a mobile phone since you don't need to hold it up to your head. And add in streaming video, in a remote area without cell service, you can charge a lot more.
    Jun 4, 2014. 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Intel's Tablet Move Will Fail [View article]
    Mini computers displaced the mainframe. Desktop PC's displaced the minicomputer. Laptop PC's displaced the Desktop PC. Tablets, like the surface 3, will displace the laptop. Phones are a distinct class due to input/output restrictions. If voice commands and VR/projection can replace the mice and keyboard UI then phones will take over.

    So remember history or you will be history.
    May 22, 2014. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Dividend Growers, Part 8: Intel [View article]
    Good article but wish you include competitors to Intel like adr TSM, mobile leader QCOM and Samsung Electronics. No semiconductor analysis without those three is incomplete since Intel, Samsung and TSM are the top three in semiconductor market share in 2011.
    May 15, 2014. 11:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And Taiwan Semiconductor: A Tale Of Two Cities [View article]
    A key driver of economics for Intel that is missing is lower costs per die at the latest process generation. TSMC is also seeing this, as reported by Nivdia, at the 20nm process generation. Other advantages of the 16nm process such as better performance/watt remain and is critical for leading edge portable devices.

    The other key economic driver for Intel that is missing is volume in PC/Laptop computers. This might be structural due to the move to cloud computing or industry realignment as the far east manufacturers takes over production completely. i.e. Dell, HP etc became just marketing firms.

    So this is a year of watching to see how Intel does in the portable and pc markets. If pc volumes ramp up or Intel takes significant volumes in portable computing then Intel stock will take off. If pc volumes remain low and Intel does not take significant volumes in portable computing then Intel stock will drop even more. A key factor to keep in mind is that as TSMC and Samsung catches up to Intel on leading edge processes, they will be shouldering more of the costs for developing the leading edge process and equipment.

    Apr 23, 2014. 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Exactly Is Risk? [View article]
    US Treasury bonds are not risk free i.e. inflation, debt limit.
    But you can quantify the price of risk via options i.e. out of the money puts for downside risk. The problem with this kind of insurance is that it's expensive so most people don't use it.

    The biggest risk in investing is the investor. Will you panic and sell when you lose 25% of your money, 50%, 75%? This last cycle lost over 30% but gained it all back and more. So rather than focusing on the instruments, focus on your risk tolerance. Can you sleep at night? Do you need the money right away etc.
    Apr 17, 2014. 10:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Is Late, But It Didn't Miss Mobile [View article]
    Compute power should be located close to the data. Presentation can be prerindered on the server side to minimize data transfere and maximize security. i.e. no more stolen laptop containing company secrets.
    Access is no longer a problem with LTE data speeds approaching ethernet speeds. Hence the beefy PC will become tablets and light weight notebooks.
    Look at netflix and the compute power in a Roku box.
    The short term implication for Intel is bad since older computers are more than capable of displaying content. i.e. how much processing power do you need to edit a word document ? Longer term, if Intel can drive pc prices to below $100, from the current $250 of chrome books, then the TAM will explode and Intel will need that new fab.
    Mar 13, 2014. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Intel Corp [View article]
    Intel does not compete with HP and only indirectly with TI.
    Competitors at chip manufacturing are Samsung, TSMC, GF and SMIC
    Competitors at chip design are Apple, Samsung, Qualcomm and AMD
    Competitor at IP(x86) is mostly ARM and indirectly Google,Apple and FB(servers).
    Competitors in GPU's are AMD,Nivda, and Imagination.
    And am leaving out anti-virus and system/server software.

    The two major threats to Intel are the alternative ARM ecosystem and
    shift back to cloud(mainframe)/light weight(terminal) access computing.

    We are living in interesting times.
    Feb 19, 2014. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Not So Sure About Intel's Tablet Plan [View article]
    Totally agree with the military analogy. Intel is defending the low price/power/performance flank of the x86 eco-system. It's better to cannibalize your own products than let some one else do it.
    Both Intel and Arm are fighting over the world's army of software engineers and who they will program for. Think WinTel and GoolTel vs GoolArm and AppArm.
    Good article over all but disagree with the chart where TSMC/samsung 20nm is lined up with Intel 22nm etc. It might be an Intel slide but it does not represent what you can buy now.
    The density axis should be TSMC/samsung 28nm vs Intel 22nm and TSMC 20nm vs Intel 14nm since they match up time wise. With a process generation advantage, Intel should be able to maintain margins due to it's density advantage.
    Jan 24, 2014. 09:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Merrifield Looks Dead On Arrival [View article]
    Intel is focusing on tablets, chromebooks, and base stations. The key battle is android compatibility vs the arm instruction set. Tablets and chromebooks are much closer to Intel's traditional turf yet limited in capability so the high end is protected. In addition, as intel chips out execute arm based chips on tablets, intel is trading one os partner for another.

    Base stations for mobile phones is like servers to pc's. It's a high performance, high cost, industrial environment where Intel thrives. It's a large growing market that Intel can take away from Qualcom.

    Intel is also playing defense in the micro server arena as the bankruptcy of Calxeda proves. It's an x86 vs ARM ISA battle that Intel is trying to win. IF intel looses the ISA battle, it's margins will be reduced as it will have to pay license fees to ARM while producing the best ARM microprocessor.
    Jan 9, 2014. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Still Has The Potential To Become A Leader Once Again [View article]
    Intel now can use it "old" 32nm fabs for LTE radios ! Thanks for all the comments about analog design on 65nm.
    With chipsets been integrated more and more on die and Atom chips moving to more advanced process, Intel needs to fill it's old deprecated fabs some other way. If LTE chips and radios can be
    fabricated in the old fabs then Intel will have a low cost solution.
    Aug 28, 2013. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Hits Chinese Speed Bump; BYD Rounds A Corner [View article]
    Why do you think BYD's technology will be obsolete ? Can you list the reasons ? BYD is a huge battery maker so you would think it's battery technology will improve faster than other EV car makers.
    Aug 27, 2013. 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Still Has The Potential To Become A Leader Once Again [View article]
    Quibble: Qualcomm will break the Wintel bond with Surface RT ?
    The same surface rt that Microsoft is unloading inventory.

    Intel is late to the tablet market that Apple popularized in 2010. If tablet's do to the pc what pc's did to mini and mainframe computers, you would hope it will last at least 10 years. In the
    mean time, the ultra-books are catching on. Just compare the asus zen book UX32A-DB31 against the i-pad 4.

    Intel is the best at manufacturing custom chips with a highly optimized process. Once a market is identified,chips can be mass produced with high performance, good battery life and decent price. TSMC produce snapdragons and other custom arm chips on a flexible but generic process that is one to two years behind
    Intel. TSMC's 20nm HKMG does not have finFet and is due to be in volume production at the end of 2013. Intel's 22nm 3D process is in volume production at the end of 2011.
    Aug 25, 2013. 10:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rambus, Micron and Hynix Patent Suits: It Ain't Over Yet [View article]
    " The Micron case had been heard in Delaware, and the case was dismissed by the Judge after finding that Micron had intentionally destroyed important documents." ??? You need a proof reader.
    "the Court of Appeals went on to uphold the California court's findings that at least some of Rambus' patents were valid and infringed." Patents are property and can be enforced, but only after a decade of theft i.e. TIVO vs EchoStar.
    May 17, 2011. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment